{
  "experiment": "senat-2026",
  "series": "market",
  "date": "2026-10-06",
  "method": "Fortuna power de-vig (full book) + Tipsport power de-vig (binary on one candidate), 50/50 on the Tipsport candidate, rest in Fortuna ratios; mapped to AI keys",
  "districts": [
    {
      "n": 3,
      "fortuna": {
        "Tsoukernik": 0.5374,
        "Plevny": 0.3752,
        "Cerna": 0.0375,
        "Someone_else": 0.0498
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Plevný_Miroslav",
        "ano": 2.05,
        "ne": 1.67
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Tsoukernik": 0.5087,
        "Plevny": 0.4086,
        "Cerna": 0.0355,
        "Someone_else": 0.0472
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 32 %; Tipsport Miroslav Plevný fair 44 % (margin 9 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 32 %; Tipsport Miroslav Plevný fair 44 % (marže 9 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 6,
      "fortuna": {
        "Tresl": 0.686,
        "Mikolas": 0.2064,
        "Steiner": 0.0426,
        "Someone_else": 0.0651
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Trešl_Ivo",
        "ano": 1.45,
        "ne": 2.52
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Tresl": 0.6696,
        "Mikolas": 0.2171,
        "Steiner": 0.0448,
        "Someone_else": 0.0684
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 42 %; Tipsport Ivo Trešl fair 65 % (margin 9 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 42 %; Tipsport Ivo Trešl fair 65 % (marže 9 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 9,
      "fortuna": {
        "Rehka": 0.6442,
        "Aschenbrenner": 0.2333,
        "Kantorova": 0.0577,
        "Someone_else": 0.0524,
        "Pouskova": 0.0124
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Aschenbrenner_Lumír",
        "ano": 2.45,
        "ne": 1.47
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Rehka": 0.592,
        "Aschenbrenner": 0.2954,
        "Kantorova": 0.0531,
        "Someone_else": 0.0482,
        "Pouskova": 0.0114
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 49 %; Tipsport Lumír Aschenbrenner fair 36 % (margin 9 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 49 %; Tipsport Lumír Aschenbrenner fair 36 % (marže 9 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 12,
      "fortuna": {
        "Fiala": 0.9053,
        "Hrdinova": 0.0717,
        "Usaty": 0.023
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Fiala_Tomáš",
        "ano": 1.03,
        "ne": 8.8
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Fiala": 0.9316,
        "Hrdinova": 0.0518,
        "Usaty": 0.0166,
        "Someone_else": 0.0
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 18 %; Tipsport Tomáš Fiala fair 96 % (margin 8 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 18 %; Tipsport Tomáš Fiala fair 96 % (marže 8 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 15,
      "fortuna": {
        "Kozar": 0.5031,
        "Chalupsky": 0.2215,
        "Med": 0.2215,
        "PavluRadova": 0.0296,
        "Someone_else": 0.0242
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Chalupský_Jaroslav",
        "ano": 3.15,
        "ne": 1.3
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Kozar": 0.4897,
        "Chalupsky": 0.2423,
        "Med": 0.2156,
        "PavluRadova": 0.0288,
        "Someone_else": 0.0235
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 43 %; Tipsport Jaroslav Chalupský fair 26 % (margin 9 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 43 %; Tipsport Jaroslav Chalupský fair 26 % (marže 9 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 18,
      "fortuna": {
        "Stepanek": 0.7615,
        "Danhova": 0.126,
        "Luftova": 0.061,
        "Sorna": 0.032,
        "Someone_else": 0.0195
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Štěpánek_Petr",
        "ano": 1.08,
        "ne": 6.21
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Stepanek": 0.8335,
        "Danhova": 0.088,
        "Luftova": 0.0426,
        "Sorna": 0.0224,
        "Someone_else": 0.0136
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 43 %; Tipsport Petr Štěpánek fair 91 % (margin 9 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 43 %; Tipsport Petr Štěpánek fair 91 % (marže 9 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 21,
      "fortuna": {
        "Laska": 0.5136,
        "Sablik": 0.2667,
        "Sarapatka": 0.1393,
        "Broz": 0.0629,
        "Someone_else": 0.0174
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Láska_Václav",
        "ano": 1.67,
        "ne": 2.05
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Laska": 0.5358,
        "Sablik": 0.2546,
        "Sarapatka": 0.1329,
        "Broz": 0.06,
        "Someone_else": 0.0166
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 39 %; Tipsport Václav Láska fair 56 % (margin 9 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 39 %; Tipsport Václav Láska fair 56 % (marže 9 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 24,
      "fortuna": {
        "Smoljak": 0.7783,
        "Peckova": 0.1719,
        "Zalud": 0.0242,
        "Laube": 0.0163,
        "Someone_else": 0.0093
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Smoljak_David",
        "ano": 1.18,
        "ne": 4.18
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Smoljak": 0.7992,
        "Peckova": 0.1557,
        "Zalud": 0.0219,
        "Laube": 0.0147,
        "Someone_else": 0.0084
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 26 %; Tipsport David Smoljak fair 82 % (margin 9 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 26 %; Tipsport David Smoljak fair 82 % (marže 9 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 27,
      "fortuna": {
        "Padevet": 0.4334,
        "J_Cizinsky": 0.4013,
        "Dudra": 0.0782,
        "Someone_else": 0.0871
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Čižinský_Jan",
        "ano": 1.88,
        "ne": 1.8
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Padevet": 0.4022,
        "J_Cizinsky": 0.4445,
        "Dudra": 0.0726,
        "Someone_else": 0.0808
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 52 %; Tipsport Jan Čižinský fair 49 % (margin 9 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 52 %; Tipsport Jan Čižinský fair 49 % (marže 9 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 30,
      "fortuna": {
        "Patak": 0.4175,
        "Sipova": 0.2975,
        "Someone_else": 0.1637,
        "Gerloch": 0.1213
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Sucharda_Šípová_Adéla",
        "ano": 2.98,
        "ne": 1.33
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Patak": 0.4222,
        "Sipova": 0.2896,
        "Someone_else": 0.1655,
        "Gerloch": 0.1227
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 24 %; Tipsport Adéla Sucharda Šípová fair 28 % (margin 9 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 24 %; Tipsport Adéla Sucharda Šípová fair 28 % (marže 9 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 33,
      "fortuna": {
        "Linhart": 0.8122,
        "Hejcman": 0.1066,
        "Lehka": 0.0552,
        "Someone_else": 0.0178,
        "Skalicky": 0.0083
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Linhart_Zbyněk",
        "ano": 1.1,
        "ne": 5.62
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Linhart": 0.8494,
        "Hejcman": 0.0854,
        "Lehka": 0.0443,
        "Someone_else": 0.0142,
        "Skalicky": 0.0067
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 34 %; Tipsport Zbyněk Linhart fair 89 % (margin 9 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 34 %; Tipsport Zbyněk Linhart fair 89 % (marže 9 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 36,
      "fortuna": {
        "Puta": 0.6462,
        "Volfova": 0.2012,
        "Vosecky": 0.1197,
        "Vomacka": 0.0294,
        "Someone_else": 0.0035
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Půta_Martin",
        "ano": 1.6,
        "ne": 2.16
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Puta": 0.6155,
        "Volfova": 0.2186,
        "Vosecky": 0.1301,
        "Vomacka": 0.032,
        "Someone_else": 0.0038
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 48 %; Tipsport Martin Půta fair 58 % (margin 9 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 48 %; Tipsport Martin Půta fair 58 % (marže 9 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 39,
      "fortuna": {
        "Sobotka": 0.9399,
        "Chovancova": 0.0519,
        "Mraz": 0.0046,
        "Someone_else": 0.0036
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Sobotka_Jan",
        "ano": 1.02,
        "ne": 9.5
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Sobotka": 0.9548,
        "Chovancova": 0.039,
        "Mraz": 0.0035,
        "Someone_else": 0.0027
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 18 %; Tipsport Jan Sobotka fair 97 % (margin 9 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 18 %; Tipsport Jan Sobotka fair 97 % (marže 9 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 42,
      "fortuna": {
        "Kaspar": 0.5789,
        "Brzobohata": 0.2118,
        "Schulz": 0.1307,
        "Sehnal": 0.0627,
        "Someone_else": 0.0159
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Kašpar_Michael",
        "ano": 1.32,
        "ne": 3.04
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Kaspar": 0.6518,
        "Brzobohata": 0.1751,
        "Schulz": 0.1081,
        "Sehnal": 0.0519,
        "Someone_else": 0.0132
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 69 %; Tipsport Michael Kašpar fair 72 % (margin 9 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 69 %; Tipsport Michael Kašpar fair 72 % (marže 9 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 45,
      "fortuna": {
        "Dvorak": 0.4848,
        "Ceralova_Petrofova": 0.2043,
        "Holasek": 0.2043,
        "Hulkova": 0.0851,
        "Someone_else": 0.0215
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Holásek_Jan",
        "ano": 3.41,
        "ne": 1.26
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Dvorak": 0.4748,
        "Ceralova_Petrofova": 0.2001,
        "Holasek": 0.2208,
        "Hulkova": 0.0833,
        "Someone_else": 0.021
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 55 %; Tipsport Jan Holásek fair 24 % (margin 9 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 55 %; Tipsport Jan Holásek fair 24 % (marže 9 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 48,
      "fortuna": {
        "Grulich": 0.9314,
        "Sadovsky": 0.0686
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Grulich_Jan",
        "ano": 1.02,
        "ne": 9.38
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Grulich": 0.9505,
        "Sadovsky": 0.0495,
        "Someone_else": 0.0
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 11 %; Tipsport Jan Grulich fair 97 % (margin 9 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 11 %; Tipsport Jan Grulich fair 97 % (marže 9 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 51,
      "fortuna": {
        "Klement": 0.6132,
        "Cerny": 0.2493,
        "Smarda": 0.12,
        "Koten": 0.0128,
        "Someone_else": 0.0047
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Klement_Josef",
        "ano": 1.4,
        "ne": 2.68
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Klement": 0.6459,
        "Cerny": 0.2282,
        "Smarda": 0.1098,
        "Koten": 0.0118,
        "Someone_else": 0.0043
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 41 %; Tipsport Josef Klement fair 68 % (margin 9 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 41 %; Tipsport Josef Klement fair 68 % (marže 9 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 54,
      "fortuna": {
        "Tretina": 0.5068,
        "Kynera": 0.2748,
        "Cerny": 0.1165,
        "RedovaFajmonova": 0.0489,
        "Ruzicka": 0.0489,
        "Beranova": 0.004
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Třetina_Tomáš",
        "ano": 1.6,
        "ne": 2.16
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Tretina": 0.5458,
        "Kynera": 0.2531,
        "Cerny": 0.1073,
        "RedovaFajmonova": 0.045,
        "Ruzicka": 0.045,
        "Beranova": 0.0037,
        "Someone_else": 0.0
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 64 %; Tipsport Tomáš Třetina fair 58 % (margin 9 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 64 %; Tipsport Tomáš Třetina fair 58 % (marže 9 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 57,
      "fortuna": {
        "Grolich": 0.9682,
        "Absolonova": 0.0278,
        "Fladr": 0.0039
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Grolich_Jan",
        "ano": 1.01,
        "ne": 14.0
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Grolich": 0.9763,
        "Absolonova": 0.0207,
        "Fladr": 0.0029,
        "Someone_else": 0.0
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 12 %; Tipsport Jan Grolich fair 98 % (margin 6 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 12 %; Tipsport Jan Grolich fair 98 % (marže 6 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 60,
      "fortuna": {
        "Papousek": 0.7545,
        "Sterba": 0.1325,
        "Zitterbart": 0.0662,
        "Someone_else": 0.0468
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Papoušek_Zdeněk",
        "ano": 1.15,
        "ne": 4.6
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Papousek": 0.7991,
        "Sterba": 0.1085,
        "Zitterbart": 0.0542,
        "Someone_else": 0.0383
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 45 %; Tipsport Zdeněk Papoušek fair 84 % (margin 9 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 45 %; Tipsport Zdeněk Papoušek fair 84 % (marže 9 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 63,
      "fortuna": {
        "Vrana": 0.8135,
        "Navarik": 0.1291,
        "Chromec": 0.039,
        "Obrtel": 0.0183
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Vrána_Petr",
        "ano": 1.17,
        "ne": 4.1
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Vrana": 0.8188,
        "Navarik": 0.1255,
        "Chromec": 0.0379,
        "Obrtel": 0.0178,
        "Someone_else": 0.0
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 30 %; Tipsport Petr Vrána fair 82 % (margin 10 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 30 %; Tipsport Petr Vrána fair 82 % (marže 10 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 66,
      "fortuna": {
        "Kohajda": 0.6307,
        "Ostadal": 0.185,
        "Skurek": 0.1492,
        "Jelinek": 0.0251,
        "Someone_else": 0.01
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Kohajda_Michael",
        "ano": 1.35,
        "ne": 2.89
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Kohajda": 0.6687,
        "Ostadal": 0.1659,
        "Skurek": 0.1338,
        "Jelinek": 0.0225,
        "Someone_else": 0.009
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 50 %; Tipsport Michael Kohajda fair 71 % (margin 9 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 50 %; Tipsport Michael Kohajda fair 71 % (marže 9 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 69,
      "fortuna": {
        "Korc": 0.4182,
        "Pesatova": 0.4182,
        "Krpel": 0.0789,
        "Someone_else": 0.0848
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Pešatová_Helena",
        "ano": 2.2,
        "ne": 1.58
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Korc": 0.4223,
        "Pesatova": 0.4124,
        "Krpel": 0.0797,
        "Someone_else": 0.0856
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 49 %; Tipsport Helena Pešatová fair 41 % (margin 9 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 49 %; Tipsport Helena Pešatová fair 41 % (marže 9 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 72,
      "fortuna": {
        "Barankova_Vilamova": 0.429,
        "Simetka": 0.429,
        "Someone_else": 0.1093,
        "Loprais": 0.0328
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Šimetka_Ondřej",
        "ano": 1.88,
        "ne": 1.8
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Barankova_Vilamova": 0.4069,
        "Simetka": 0.4583,
        "Someone_else": 0.1037,
        "Loprais": 0.0311
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 42 %; Tipsport Ondřej Šimetka fair 49 % (margin 9 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 42 %; Tipsport Ondřej Šimetka fair 49 % (marže 9 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 75,
      "fortuna": {
        "Brzyszkowska": 0.7269,
        "Stanek": 0.0885,
        "Szyja": 0.0885,
        "Kazik": 0.0379,
        "Polach": 0.0379,
        "Someone_else": 0.0204
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Brzyszkowská_Lenka",
        "ano": 1.1,
        "ne": 5.62
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Brzyszkowska": 0.8068,
        "Stanek": 0.0626,
        "Szyja": 0.0626,
        "Kazik": 0.0268,
        "Polach": 0.0268,
        "Someone_else": 0.0144
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 78 %; Tipsport Lenka Brzyszkowská fair 89 % (margin 9 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 78 %; Tipsport Lenka Brzyszkowská fair 89 % (marže 9 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 78,
      "fortuna": {
        "Golan": 0.7774,
        "Mitacek": 0.095,
        "Sedlarik": 0.095,
        "Someone_else": 0.0326
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Goláň_Tomáš",
        "ano": 1.23,
        "ne": 3.65
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Golan": 0.7803,
        "Mitacek": 0.0938,
        "Sedlarik": 0.0938,
        "Someone_else": 0.0322
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 31 %; Tipsport Tomáš Goláň fair 78 % (margin 9 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 31 %; Tipsport Tomáš Goláň fair 78 % (marže 9 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 81,
      "fortuna": {
        "Bazala": 0.8663,
        "Vasica": 0.0887,
        "Balastikova": 0.0271,
        "Someone_else": 0.0179
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Bazala_Josef",
        "ano": 1.02,
        "ne": 9.38
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Bazala": 0.918,
        "Vasica": 0.0544,
        "Balastikova": 0.0166,
        "Someone_else": 0.011
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 30 %; Tipsport Josef Bazala fair 97 % (margin 9 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 30 %; Tipsport Josef Bazala fair 97 % (marže 9 %)"
    }
  ]
}