{
  "experiment": "senat-2026",
  "series": "market",
  "date": "2026-10-07",
  "method": "Fortuna power de-vig (full book) + Tipsport power de-vig (binary on one candidate), 50/50 on the Tipsport candidate, rest in Fortuna ratios; mapped to AI keys",
  "districts": [
    {
      "n": 3,
      "fortuna": {
        "Tsoukernik": 0.5861,
        "Plevny": 0.3435,
        "Cerna": 0.034,
        "Someone_else": 0.0364
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Plevný_Miroslav",
        "ano": 2.08,
        "ne": 1.65
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Tsoukernik": 0.5455,
        "Plevny": 0.389,
        "Cerna": 0.0317,
        "Someone_else": 0.0339
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 29 %; Tipsport Miroslav Plevný fair 43 % (margin 9 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 29 %; Tipsport Miroslav Plevný fair 43 % (marže 9 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 6,
      "fortuna": {
        "Tresl": 0.6362,
        "Mikolas": 0.2506,
        "Steiner": 0.0611,
        "Someone_else": 0.0521
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Trešl_Ivo",
        "ano": 1.48,
        "ne": 2.43
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Tresl": 0.6372,
        "Mikolas": 0.2499,
        "Steiner": 0.0609,
        "Someone_else": 0.0519
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 34 %; Tipsport Ivo Trešl fair 64 % (margin 9 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 34 %; Tipsport Ivo Trešl fair 64 % (marže 9 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 9,
      "fortuna": {
        "Rehka": 0.6468,
        "Aschenbrenner": 0.2364,
        "Kantorova": 0.0488,
        "Someone_else": 0.055,
        "Pouskova": 0.0129
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Aschenbrenner_Lumír",
        "ano": 2.6,
        "ne": 1.42
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Rehka": 0.6061,
        "Aschenbrenner": 0.2844,
        "Kantorova": 0.0458,
        "Someone_else": 0.0516,
        "Pouskova": 0.0121
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 47 %; Tipsport Lumír Aschenbrenner fair 33 % (margin 9 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 47 %; Tipsport Lumír Aschenbrenner fair 33 % (marže 9 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 12,
      "fortuna": {
        "Fiala": 0.9053,
        "Hrdinova": 0.0717,
        "Usaty": 0.023
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Fiala_Tomáš",
        "ano": 1.03,
        "ne": 8.8
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Fiala": 0.9316,
        "Hrdinova": 0.0518,
        "Usaty": 0.0166,
        "Someone_else": 0.0
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 18 %; Tipsport Tomáš Fiala fair 96 % (margin 8 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 18 %; Tipsport Tomáš Fiala fair 96 % (marže 8 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 15,
      "fortuna": {
        "Kozar": 0.5046,
        "Med": 0.223,
        "Chalupsky": 0.223,
        "PavluRadova": 0.0301,
        "Someone_else": 0.0192
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Chalupský_Jaroslav",
        "ano": 3.48,
        "ne": 1.25
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Kozar": 0.5021,
        "Med": 0.2219,
        "Chalupsky": 0.2269,
        "PavluRadova": 0.03,
        "Someone_else": 0.0191
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 42 %; Tipsport Jaroslav Chalupský fair 23 % (margin 9 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 42 %; Tipsport Jaroslav Chalupský fair 23 % (marže 9 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 18,
      "fortuna": {
        "Stepanek": 0.8606,
        "Danhova": 0.0793,
        "Luftova": 0.0314,
        "Sorna": 0.0176,
        "Someone_else": 0.011
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Štěpánek_Petr",
        "ano": 1.08,
        "ne": 6.21
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Stepanek": 0.883,
        "Danhova": 0.0666,
        "Luftova": 0.0264,
        "Sorna": 0.0148,
        "Someone_else": 0.0092
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 37 %; Tipsport Petr Štěpánek fair 91 % (margin 9 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 37 %; Tipsport Petr Štěpánek fair 91 % (marže 9 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 21,
      "fortuna": {
        "Laska": 0.5338,
        "Sablik": 0.2528,
        "Sarapatka": 0.1341,
        "Broz": 0.0622,
        "Someone_else": 0.0171
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Láska_Václav",
        "ano": 1.45,
        "ne": 2.52
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Laska": 0.5935,
        "Sablik": 0.2204,
        "Sarapatka": 0.1169,
        "Broz": 0.0542,
        "Someone_else": 0.0149
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 39 %; Tipsport Václav Láska fair 65 % (margin 9 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 39 %; Tipsport Václav Láska fair 65 % (marže 9 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 24,
      "fortuna": {
        "Smoljak": 0.7453,
        "Peckova": 0.2074,
        "Zalud": 0.0282,
        "Laube": 0.0113,
        "Someone_else": 0.0078
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Smoljak_David",
        "ano": 1.18,
        "ne": 4.18
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Smoljak": 0.7826,
        "Peckova": 0.177,
        "Zalud": 0.0241,
        "Laube": 0.0097,
        "Someone_else": 0.0066
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 23 %; Tipsport David Smoljak fair 82 % (margin 9 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 23 %; Tipsport David Smoljak fair 82 % (marže 9 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 27,
      "fortuna": {
        "Padevet": 0.4422,
        "J_Cizinsky": 0.4102,
        "Dudra": 0.0671,
        "Someone_else": 0.0804
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Čižinský_Jan",
        "ano": 1.95,
        "ne": 1.74
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Padevet": 0.4207,
        "J_Cizinsky": 0.4389,
        "Dudra": 0.0639,
        "Someone_else": 0.0765
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 47 %; Tipsport Jan Čižinský fair 47 % (margin 9 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 47 %; Tipsport Jan Čižinský fair 47 % (marže 9 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 30,
      "fortuna": {
        "Patak": 0.4446,
        "Sipova": 0.2768,
        "Gerloch": 0.1231,
        "Someone_else": 0.1556
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Sucharda_Šípová_Adéla",
        "ano": 2.98,
        "ne": 1.33
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Patak": 0.4431,
        "Sipova": 0.2792,
        "Gerloch": 0.1226,
        "Someone_else": 0.155
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 23 %; Tipsport Adéla Sucharda Šípová fair 28 % (margin 9 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 23 %; Tipsport Adéla Sucharda Šípová fair 28 % (marže 9 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 33,
      "fortuna": {
        "Linhart": 0.8147,
        "Hejcman": 0.1102,
        "Lehka": 0.0474,
        "Someone_else": 0.0188,
        "Skalicky": 0.0089
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Linhart_Zbyněk",
        "ano": 1.1,
        "ne": 5.62
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Linhart": 0.8507,
        "Hejcman": 0.0888,
        "Lehka": 0.0382,
        "Someone_else": 0.0152,
        "Skalicky": 0.0072
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 32 %; Tipsport Zbyněk Linhart fair 89 % (margin 9 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 32 %; Tipsport Zbyněk Linhart fair 89 % (marže 9 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 36,
      "fortuna": {
        "Puta": 0.5593,
        "Volfova": 0.2817,
        "Vosecky": 0.1043,
        "Vomacka": 0.0472,
        "Someone_else": 0.0075
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Půta_Martin",
        "ano": 1.65,
        "ne": 2.08
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Puta": 0.5624,
        "Volfova": 0.2797,
        "Vosecky": 0.1036,
        "Vomacka": 0.0469,
        "Someone_else": 0.0075
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 34 %; Tipsport Martin Půta fair 57 % (margin 9 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 34 %; Tipsport Martin Půta fair 57 % (marže 9 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 39,
      "fortuna": {
        "Sobotka": 0.9412,
        "Chovancova": 0.0495,
        "Mraz": 0.0052,
        "Someone_else": 0.0041
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Sobotka_Jan",
        "ano": 1.02,
        "ne": 9.5
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Sobotka": 0.9555,
        "Chovancova": 0.0375,
        "Mraz": 0.004,
        "Someone_else": 0.0031
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 17 %; Tipsport Jan Sobotka fair 97 % (margin 9 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 17 %; Tipsport Jan Sobotka fair 97 % (marže 9 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 42,
      "fortuna": {
        "Kaspar": 0.6855,
        "Brzobohata": 0.136,
        "Schulz": 0.1148,
        "Sehnal": 0.0423,
        "Someone_else": 0.0214
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Kašpar_Michael",
        "ano": 1.3,
        "ne": 3.15
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Kaspar": 0.7112,
        "Brzobohata": 0.1249,
        "Schulz": 0.1054,
        "Sehnal": 0.0389,
        "Someone_else": 0.0196
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 45 %; Tipsport Michael Kašpar fair 74 % (margin 9 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 45 %; Tipsport Michael Kašpar fair 74 % (marže 9 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 45,
      "fortuna": {
        "Dvorak": 0.4955,
        "Ceralova_Petrofova": 0.1875,
        "Holasek": 0.1875,
        "Hulkova": 0.1047,
        "Someone_else": 0.0248
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Holásek_Jan",
        "ano": 3.41,
        "ne": 1.26
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Dvorak": 0.4803,
        "Ceralova_Petrofova": 0.1817,
        "Holasek": 0.2124,
        "Hulkova": 0.1015,
        "Someone_else": 0.024
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 51 %; Tipsport Jan Holásek fair 24 % (margin 9 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 51 %; Tipsport Jan Holásek fair 24 % (marže 9 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 48,
      "fortuna": {
        "Grulich": 0.9314,
        "Sadovsky": 0.0686
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Grulich_Jan",
        "ano": 1.02,
        "ne": 9.38
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Grulich": 0.9505,
        "Sadovsky": 0.0495,
        "Someone_else": 0.0
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 11 %; Tipsport Jan Grulich fair 97 % (margin 9 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 11 %; Tipsport Jan Grulich fair 97 % (marže 9 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 51,
      "fortuna": {
        "Klement": 0.6132,
        "Cerny": 0.2493,
        "Smarda": 0.12,
        "Koten": 0.0128,
        "Someone_else": 0.0047
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Klement_Josef",
        "ano": 1.3,
        "ne": 3.14
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Klement": 0.6748,
        "Cerny": 0.2096,
        "Smarda": 0.1009,
        "Koten": 0.0108,
        "Someone_else": 0.0039
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 41 %; Tipsport Josef Klement fair 74 % (margin 9 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 41 %; Tipsport Josef Klement fair 74 % (marže 9 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 54,
      "fortuna": {
        "Tretina": 0.5228,
        "Kynera": 0.2916,
        "Cerny": 0.0803,
        "RedovaFajmonova": 0.0461,
        "Ruzicka": 0.0562,
        "Beranova": 0.0031
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Třetina_Tomáš",
        "ano": 1.6,
        "ne": 2.16
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Tretina": 0.5538,
        "Kynera": 0.2726,
        "Cerny": 0.075,
        "RedovaFajmonova": 0.0431,
        "Ruzicka": 0.0525,
        "Beranova": 0.0029,
        "Someone_else": 0.0
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 55 %; Tipsport Tomáš Třetina fair 58 % (margin 9 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 55 %; Tipsport Tomáš Třetina fair 58 % (marže 9 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 57,
      "fortuna": {
        "Grolich": 0.9682,
        "Absolonova": 0.0278,
        "Fladr": 0.0039
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Grolich_Jan",
        "ano": 1.01,
        "ne": 14.0
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Grolich": 0.9763,
        "Absolonova": 0.0207,
        "Fladr": 0.0029,
        "Someone_else": 0.0
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 12 %; Tipsport Jan Grolich fair 98 % (margin 6 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 12 %; Tipsport Jan Grolich fair 98 % (marže 6 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 60,
      "fortuna": {
        "Papousek": 0.754,
        "Sterba": 0.1169,
        "Zitterbart": 0.0827,
        "Someone_else": 0.0464
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Papoušek_Zdeněk",
        "ano": 1.1,
        "ne": 5.62
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Papousek": 0.8204,
        "Sterba": 0.0854,
        "Zitterbart": 0.0604,
        "Someone_else": 0.0339
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 46 %; Tipsport Zdeněk Papoušek fair 89 % (margin 9 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 46 %; Tipsport Zdeněk Papoušek fair 89 % (marže 9 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 63,
      "fortuna": {
        "Vrana": 0.8135,
        "Navarik": 0.1291,
        "Chromec": 0.039,
        "Obrtel": 0.0183
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Vrána_Petr",
        "ano": 1.17,
        "ne": 4.1
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Vrana": 0.8188,
        "Navarik": 0.1255,
        "Chromec": 0.0379,
        "Obrtel": 0.0178,
        "Someone_else": 0.0
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 30 %; Tipsport Petr Vrána fair 82 % (margin 10 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 30 %; Tipsport Petr Vrána fair 82 % (marže 10 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 66,
      "fortuna": {
        "Kohajda": 0.6307,
        "Ostadal": 0.185,
        "Skurek": 0.1492,
        "Jelinek": 0.0251,
        "Someone_else": 0.01
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Kohajda_Michael",
        "ano": 1.35,
        "ne": 2.89
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Kohajda": 0.6687,
        "Ostadal": 0.1659,
        "Skurek": 0.1338,
        "Jelinek": 0.0225,
        "Someone_else": 0.009
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 50 %; Tipsport Michael Kohajda fair 71 % (margin 9 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 50 %; Tipsport Michael Kohajda fair 71 % (marže 9 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 69,
      "fortuna": {
        "Korc": 0.4182,
        "Pesatova": 0.4182,
        "Krpel": 0.0789,
        "Someone_else": 0.0848
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Pešatová_Helena",
        "ano": 2.05,
        "ne": 1.67
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Korc": 0.4096,
        "Pesatova": 0.4301,
        "Krpel": 0.0773,
        "Someone_else": 0.083
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 49 %; Tipsport Helena Pešatová fair 44 % (margin 9 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 49 %; Tipsport Helena Pešatová fair 44 % (marže 9 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 72,
      "fortuna": {
        "Barankova_Vilamova": 0.429,
        "Simetka": 0.429,
        "Someone_else": 0.1093,
        "Loprais": 0.0328
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Šimetka_Ondřej",
        "ano": 1.88,
        "ne": 1.8
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Barankova_Vilamova": 0.4069,
        "Simetka": 0.4583,
        "Someone_else": 0.1037,
        "Loprais": 0.0311
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 42 %; Tipsport Ondřej Šimetka fair 49 % (margin 9 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 42 %; Tipsport Ondřej Šimetka fair 49 % (marže 9 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 75,
      "fortuna": {
        "Brzyszkowska": 0.7972,
        "Stanek": 0.063,
        "Szyja": 0.063,
        "Polach": 0.0426,
        "Kazik": 0.0239,
        "Someone_else": 0.0103
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Brzyszkowská_Lenka",
        "ano": 1.1,
        "ne": 5.62
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Brzyszkowska": 0.842,
        "Stanek": 0.0491,
        "Szyja": 0.0491,
        "Polach": 0.0332,
        "Kazik": 0.0186,
        "Someone_else": 0.008
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 55 %; Tipsport Lenka Brzyszkowská fair 89 % (margin 9 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 55 %; Tipsport Lenka Brzyszkowská fair 89 % (marže 9 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 78,
      "fortuna": {
        "Golan": 0.7774,
        "Mitacek": 0.095,
        "Sedlarik": 0.095,
        "Someone_else": 0.0326
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Goláň_Tomáš",
        "ano": 1.23,
        "ne": 3.65
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Golan": 0.7803,
        "Mitacek": 0.0938,
        "Sedlarik": 0.0938,
        "Someone_else": 0.0322
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 31 %; Tipsport Tomáš Goláň fair 78 % (margin 9 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 31 %; Tipsport Tomáš Goláň fair 78 % (marže 9 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 81,
      "fortuna": {
        "Bazala": 0.8663,
        "Vasica": 0.0887,
        "Balastikova": 0.0271,
        "Someone_else": 0.0179
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Bazala_Josef",
        "ano": 1.02,
        "ne": 9.38
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Bazala": 0.918,
        "Vasica": 0.0544,
        "Balastikova": 0.0166,
        "Someone_else": 0.011
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 30 %; Tipsport Josef Bazala fair 97 % (margin 9 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 30 %; Tipsport Josef Bazala fair 97 % (marže 9 %)"
    }
  ]
}