{
  "experiment": "senat-2026",
  "series": "market",
  "date": "2026-10-09",
  "method": "Fortuna power de-vig (full book) + Tipsport power de-vig (binary on one candidate), 50/50 on the Tipsport candidate, rest in Fortuna ratios; mapped to AI keys",
  "districts": [
    {
      "n": 3,
      "fortuna": {
        "Tsoukernik": 0.5759,
        "Plevny": 0.3537,
        "Cerna": 0.034,
        "Someone_else": 0.0364
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Plevný_Miroslav",
        "ano": 2.05,
        "ne": 1.67
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Tsoukernik": 0.5366,
        "Plevny": 0.3979,
        "Cerna": 0.0317,
        "Someone_else": 0.0339
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 29 %; Tipsport Miroslav Plevný fair 44 % (margin 9 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 29 %; Tipsport Miroslav Plevný fair 44 % (marže 9 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 6,
      "fortuna": {
        "Tresl": 0.6362,
        "Mikolas": 0.2506,
        "Steiner": 0.0611,
        "Someone_else": 0.0521
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Trešl_Ivo",
        "ano": 1.48,
        "ne": 2.43
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Tresl": 0.6372,
        "Mikolas": 0.2499,
        "Steiner": 0.0609,
        "Someone_else": 0.0519
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 34 %; Tipsport Ivo Trešl fair 64 % (margin 9 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 34 %; Tipsport Ivo Trešl fair 64 % (marže 9 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 9,
      "fortuna": {
        "Rehka": 0.6803,
        "Aschenbrenner": 0.2094,
        "Kantorova": 0.0472,
        "Someone_else": 0.0508,
        "Pouskova": 0.0123
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Aschenbrenner_Lumír",
        "ano": 2.68,
        "ne": 1.4
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Rehka": 0.6322,
        "Aschenbrenner": 0.2654,
        "Kantorova": 0.0439,
        "Someone_else": 0.0472,
        "Pouskova": 0.0114
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 47 %; Tipsport Lumír Aschenbrenner fair 32 % (margin 9 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 47 %; Tipsport Lumír Aschenbrenner fair 32 % (marže 9 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 12,
      "fortuna": {
        "Fiala": 0.9053,
        "Hrdinova": 0.0717,
        "Usaty": 0.023
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Fiala_Tomáš",
        "ano": 1.05,
        "ne": 7.43
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Fiala": 0.9204,
        "Hrdinova": 0.0603,
        "Usaty": 0.0193,
        "Someone_else": 0.0
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 18 %; Tipsport Tomáš Fiala fair 94 % (margin 9 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 18 %; Tipsport Tomáš Fiala fair 94 % (marže 9 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 15,
      "fortuna": {
        "Kozar": 0.4592,
        "Med": 0.2846,
        "Chalupsky": 0.2049,
        "PavluRadova": 0.0325,
        "Someone_else": 0.0188
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Chalupský_Jaroslav",
        "ano": 3.95,
        "ne": 1.2
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Kozar": 0.462,
        "Med": 0.2864,
        "Chalupsky": 0.2,
        "PavluRadova": 0.0327,
        "Someone_else": 0.0189
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 31 %; Tipsport Jaroslav Chalupský fair 20 % (margin 9 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 31 %; Tipsport Jaroslav Chalupský fair 20 % (marže 9 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 18,
      "fortuna": {
        "Stepanek": 0.8917,
        "Danhova": 0.0551,
        "Luftova": 0.0281,
        "Sorna": 0.0147,
        "Someone_else": 0.0104
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Štěpánek_Petr",
        "ano": 1.08,
        "ne": 6.21
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Stepanek": 0.8985,
        "Danhova": 0.0516,
        "Luftova": 0.0263,
        "Sorna": 0.0138,
        "Someone_else": 0.0098
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 28 %; Tipsport Petr Štěpánek fair 91 % (margin 9 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 28 %; Tipsport Petr Štěpánek fair 91 % (marže 9 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 21,
      "fortuna": {
        "Laska": 0.665,
        "Sablik": 0.2246,
        "Sarapatka": 0.071,
        "Broz": 0.0252,
        "Someone_else": 0.0143
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Láska_Václav",
        "ano": 1.45,
        "ne": 2.52
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Laska": 0.6591,
        "Sablik": 0.2285,
        "Sarapatka": 0.0722,
        "Broz": 0.0256,
        "Someone_else": 0.0145
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 34 %; Tipsport Václav Láska fair 65 % (margin 9 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 34 %; Tipsport Václav Láska fair 65 % (marže 9 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 24,
      "fortuna": {
        "Smoljak": 0.7108,
        "Peckova": 0.2395,
        "Zalud": 0.0295,
        "Laube": 0.012,
        "Someone_else": 0.0082
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Smoljak_David",
        "ano": 1.13,
        "ne": 4.95
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Smoljak": 0.7856,
        "Peckova": 0.1776,
        "Zalud": 0.0219,
        "Laube": 0.0089,
        "Someone_else": 0.0061
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 23 %; Tipsport David Smoljak fair 86 % (margin 9 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 23 %; Tipsport David Smoljak fair 86 % (marže 9 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 27,
      "fortuna": {
        "Padevet": 0.4989,
        "J_Cizinsky": 0.3819,
        "Dudra": 0.067,
        "Someone_else": 0.0522
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Čižinský_Jan",
        "ano": 1.95,
        "ne": 1.74
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Padevet": 0.4643,
        "J_Cizinsky": 0.4248,
        "Dudra": 0.0624,
        "Someone_else": 0.0486
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 44 %; Tipsport Jan Čižinský fair 47 % (margin 9 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 44 %; Tipsport Jan Čižinský fair 47 % (marže 9 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 30,
      "fortuna": {
        "Patak": 0.4519,
        "Sipova": 0.2839,
        "Gerloch": 0.1283,
        "Someone_else": 0.1359
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Sucharda_Šípová_Adéla",
        "ano": 3.25,
        "ne": 1.28
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Patak": 0.4622,
        "Sipova": 0.2676,
        "Gerloch": 0.1312,
        "Someone_else": 0.139
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 20 %; Tipsport Adéla Sucharda Šípová fair 25 % (margin 9 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 20 %; Tipsport Adéla Sucharda Šípová fair 25 % (marže 9 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 33,
      "fortuna": {
        "Linhart": 0.8705,
        "Hejcman": 0.0738,
        "Lehka": 0.0269,
        "Someone_else": 0.0195,
        "Skalicky": 0.0093
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Linhart_Zbyněk",
        "ano": 1.1,
        "ne": 5.62
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Linhart": 0.8786,
        "Hejcman": 0.0692,
        "Lehka": 0.0252,
        "Someone_else": 0.0182,
        "Skalicky": 0.0087
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 27 %; Tipsport Zbyněk Linhart fair 89 % (margin 9 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 27 %; Tipsport Zbyněk Linhart fair 89 % (marže 9 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 36,
      "fortuna": {
        "Puta": 0.5661,
        "Volfova": 0.2893,
        "Vosecky": 0.088,
        "Vomacka": 0.0503,
        "Someone_else": 0.0062
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Půta_Martin",
        "ano": 1.57,
        "ne": 2.22
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Puta": 0.5819,
        "Volfova": 0.2788,
        "Vosecky": 0.0849,
        "Vomacka": 0.0485,
        "Someone_else": 0.006
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 30 %; Tipsport Martin Půta fair 60 % (margin 9 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 30 %; Tipsport Martin Půta fair 60 % (marže 9 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 39,
      "fortuna": {
        "Sobotka": 0.9689,
        "Chovancova": 0.0254,
        "Mraz": 0.0034,
        "Someone_else": 0.0023
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Sobotka_Jan",
        "ano": 1.02,
        "ne": 9.5
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Sobotka": 0.9693,
        "Chovancova": 0.025,
        "Mraz": 0.0034,
        "Someone_else": 0.0023
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 13 %; Tipsport Jan Sobotka fair 97 % (margin 9 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 13 %; Tipsport Jan Sobotka fair 97 % (marže 9 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 42,
      "fortuna": {
        "Kaspar": 0.7054,
        "Brzobohata": 0.1176,
        "Schulz": 0.1036,
        "Sehnal": 0.0468,
        "Someone_else": 0.0267
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Kašpar_Michael",
        "ano": 1.3,
        "ne": 3.15
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Kaspar": 0.7212,
        "Brzobohata": 0.1113,
        "Schulz": 0.098,
        "Sehnal": 0.0443,
        "Someone_else": 0.0253
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 34 %; Tipsport Michael Kašpar fair 74 % (margin 9 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 34 %; Tipsport Michael Kašpar fair 74 % (marže 9 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 45,
      "fortuna": {
        "Dvorak": 0.5312,
        "Ceralova_Petrofova": 0.1719,
        "Holasek": 0.1719,
        "Hulkova": 0.1008,
        "Someone_else": 0.0243
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Holásek_Jan",
        "ano": 3.35,
        "ne": 1.27
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Dvorak": 0.5082,
        "Ceralova_Petrofova": 0.1644,
        "Holasek": 0.2077,
        "Hulkova": 0.0964,
        "Someone_else": 0.0232
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 43 %; Tipsport Jan Holásek fair 24 % (margin 9 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 43 %; Tipsport Jan Holásek fair 24 % (marže 9 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 48,
      "fortuna": {
        "Grulich": 0.9564,
        "Sadovsky": 0.0436
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Grulich_Jan",
        "ano": 1.03,
        "ne": 8.61
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Grulich": 0.957,
        "Sadovsky": 0.043,
        "Someone_else": 0.0
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 10 %; Tipsport Jan Grulich fair 96 % (margin 9 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 10 %; Tipsport Jan Grulich fair 96 % (marže 9 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 51,
      "fortuna": {
        "Klement": 0.6674,
        "Cerny": 0.1545,
        "Smarda": 0.1545,
        "Koten": 0.0177,
        "Someone_else": 0.0059
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Klement_Josef",
        "ano": 1.23,
        "ne": 3.65
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Klement": 0.7253,
        "Cerny": 0.1276,
        "Smarda": 0.1276,
        "Koten": 0.0146,
        "Someone_else": 0.0049
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 31 %; Tipsport Josef Klement fair 78 % (margin 9 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 31 %; Tipsport Josef Klement fair 78 % (marže 9 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 54,
      "fortuna": {
        "Tretina": 0.5202,
        "Kynera": 0.3341,
        "Cerny": 0.0471,
        "RedovaFajmonova": 0.0471,
        "Ruzicka": 0.0471,
        "Beranova": 0.0043
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Třetina_Tomáš",
        "ano": 1.6,
        "ne": 2.16
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Tretina": 0.5525,
        "Kynera": 0.3116,
        "Cerny": 0.0439,
        "RedovaFajmonova": 0.0439,
        "Ruzicka": 0.0439,
        "Beranova": 0.004,
        "Someone_else": 0.0
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 43 %; Tipsport Tomáš Třetina fair 58 % (margin 9 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 43 %; Tipsport Tomáš Třetina fair 58 % (marže 9 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 57,
      "fortuna": {
        "Grolich": 0.9822,
        "Absolonova": 0.0157,
        "Fladr": 0.0022
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Grolich_Jan",
        "ano": 1.01,
        "ne": 14.0
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Grolich": 0.9833,
        "Absolonova": 0.0147,
        "Fladr": 0.002,
        "Someone_else": 0.0
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 12 %; Tipsport Jan Grolich fair 98 % (margin 6 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 12 %; Tipsport Jan Grolich fair 98 % (marže 6 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 60,
      "fortuna": {
        "Papousek": 0.8181,
        "Sterba": 0.0863,
        "Zitterbart": 0.0679,
        "Someone_else": 0.0277
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Papoušek_Zdeněk",
        "ano": 1.1,
        "ne": 5.62
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Papousek": 0.8524,
        "Sterba": 0.0701,
        "Zitterbart": 0.0551,
        "Someone_else": 0.0224
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 31 %; Tipsport Zdeněk Papoušek fair 89 % (margin 9 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 31 %; Tipsport Zdeněk Papoušek fair 89 % (marže 9 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 63,
      "fortuna": {
        "Vrana": 0.7897,
        "Navarik": 0.1675,
        "Chromec": 0.0289,
        "Obrtel": 0.0139
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Vrána_Petr",
        "ano": 1.13,
        "ne": 4.67
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Vrana": 0.8234,
        "Navarik": 0.1407,
        "Chromec": 0.0243,
        "Obrtel": 0.0117,
        "Someone_else": 0.0
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 27 %; Tipsport Petr Vrána fair 86 % (margin 10 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 27 %; Tipsport Petr Vrána fair 86 % (marže 10 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 66,
      "fortuna": {
        "Kohajda": 0.6552,
        "Skurek": 0.1645,
        "Ostadal": 0.1418,
        "Jelinek": 0.0302,
        "Someone_else": 0.0083
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Kohajda_Michael",
        "ano": 1.32,
        "ne": 3.04
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Kohajda": 0.6899,
        "Skurek": 0.1479,
        "Ostadal": 0.1275,
        "Jelinek": 0.0271,
        "Someone_else": 0.0075
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 39 %; Tipsport Michael Kohajda fair 72 % (margin 9 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 39 %; Tipsport Michael Kohajda fair 72 % (marže 9 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 69,
      "fortuna": {
        "Pesatova": 0.4425,
        "Korc": 0.4271,
        "Someone_else": 0.0933,
        "Krpel": 0.0371
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Pešatová_Helena",
        "ano": 2.0,
        "ne": 1.7
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Pesatova": 0.4481,
        "Korc": 0.4228,
        "Someone_else": 0.0923,
        "Krpel": 0.0367
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 37 %; Tipsport Helena Pešatová fair 45 % (margin 9 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 37 %; Tipsport Helena Pešatová fair 45 % (marže 9 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 72,
      "fortuna": {
        "Barankova_Vilamova": 0.4396,
        "Simetka": 0.4396,
        "Someone_else": 0.0939,
        "Loprais": 0.0268
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Šimetka_Ondřej",
        "ano": 1.88,
        "ne": 1.8
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Barankova_Vilamova": 0.4208,
        "Simetka": 0.4636,
        "Someone_else": 0.0899,
        "Loprais": 0.0257
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 36 %; Tipsport Ondřej Šimetka fair 49 % (margin 9 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 36 %; Tipsport Ondřej Šimetka fair 49 % (marže 9 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 75,
      "fortuna": {
        "Brzyszkowska": 0.8098,
        "Stanek": 0.0763,
        "Szyja": 0.0433,
        "Polach": 0.0268,
        "Kazik": 0.0268,
        "Someone_else": 0.0171
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Brzyszkowská_Lenka",
        "ano": 1.1,
        "ne": 5.62
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Brzyszkowska": 0.8482,
        "Stanek": 0.0608,
        "Szyja": 0.0346,
        "Polach": 0.0214,
        "Kazik": 0.0214,
        "Someone_else": 0.0136
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 44 %; Tipsport Lenka Brzyszkowská fair 89 % (margin 9 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 44 %; Tipsport Lenka Brzyszkowská fair 89 % (marže 9 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 78,
      "fortuna": {
        "Golan": 0.7492,
        "Sedlarik": 0.1246,
        "Mitacek": 0.0887,
        "Someone_else": 0.0376
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Goláň_Tomáš",
        "ano": 1.23,
        "ne": 3.65
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Golan": 0.7662,
        "Sedlarik": 0.1161,
        "Mitacek": 0.0827,
        "Someone_else": 0.035
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 25 %; Tipsport Tomáš Goláň fair 78 % (margin 9 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 25 %; Tipsport Tomáš Goláň fair 78 % (marže 9 %)"
    },
    {
      "n": 81,
      "fortuna": {
        "Bazala": 0.9241,
        "Vasica": 0.043,
        "Balastikova": 0.0207,
        "Someone_else": 0.0122
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "candidate": "Bazala_Josef",
        "ano": 1.02,
        "ne": 9.38
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Bazala": 0.9468,
        "Vasica": 0.0301,
        "Balastikova": 0.0145,
        "Someone_else": 0.0086
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 29 %; Tipsport Josef Bazala fair 97 % (margin 9 %)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 29 %; Tipsport Josef Bazala fair 97 % (marže 9 %)"
    }
  ]
}