{
  "experiment": "senat-2026",
  "date": "2026-10-11",
  "stage": "blind",
  "series": "ai",
  "generated_utc": "2026-10-11T06:23:46+00:00",
  "districts": [
    {
      "n": 3,
      "name": "Cheb",
      "series": "cheb-senat-obvod3-2026",
      "version": 2,
      "stage": "blind",
      "leader": "Plevny",
      "leader_p": 0.89,
      "leader_band": [
        0.81,
        0.94
      ],
      "candidates": [
        {
          "key": "Plevny",
          "name": "Miroslav Plevný",
          "party": "STAN",
          "p": 0.89,
          "band": [
            0.81,
            0.94
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Tsoukernik",
          "name": "Sandra Tsoukernik",
          "party": "ANO",
          "p": 0.11,
          "band": [
            0.06,
            0.19
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Cerna",
          "name": "Štěpánka Černá",
          "party": "VOK",
          "p": 0.0,
          "band": [
            0.0,
            0.0
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Someone_else",
          "name": "Ostatní",
          "party": "",
          "p": 0.0,
          "band": [
            0.0,
            0.0
          ]
        }
      ],
      "others_on_ballot": [
        "Vladimír Keblúšek (NČ)",
        "Pavel Hojda (KSČM)",
        "Ivan Reis (SPD)"
      ],
      "ballot_size": 6,
      "status_cs": "obhájce kandiduje",
      "status_en": "incumbent running",
      "why_cs": "Obhájce s širokou koaliční podporou; druhé kolo v roce 2020 vyhrál 70 : 30. ANO má silnou základnu, ale ve druhých kolech dlouhodobě prohrává.",
      "why_en": "Incumbent with broad coalition backing; won the 2020 runoff 70–30. ANO has a strong base but a weak long-run runoff record.",
      "watch_cs": "Pořadí v 1. kole: vede-li Tsoukernik o 5+ bodů, klesá Plevný k ~55–62 %.",
      "watch_en": "Round-1 order: if Tsoukernik leads by 5+ pp, Plevný drops to ~55–62 %.",
      "redteam": null,
      "grounding": "warn       # 0 material; two label fixes applied (59.6 % = Plevný's share of finalist pair; Černá 55/45 = ASSUMPTION)",
      "contamination_risk": "none   # this run: only search-result titles (CNN Prima result pages, kurzy.cz, Seznam Zprávy 2020 \"předpověď\") seen, not opened, no numbers — see runs/.../01-research.market-quarantine.md",
      "research_limitation": "volby.gov.cz down during research → no numeric Cheb/Tachov precinct split; election-night coverage thin (no endorsements found = absence of evidence); no sourced count of runoffs where a ≥10 pp R1 leader lost.",
      "independent_redteam_posthoc": false,
      "note": "2026-10-10-cheb-senat-obvod3-2026-v2.md",
      "created": "2026-10-10"
    },
    {
      "n": 6,
      "name": "Louny",
      "series": "louny-senat-obvod6-2026",
      "version": 2,
      "stage": "blind",
      "leader": "Tresl",
      "leader_p": 0.89,
      "leader_band": [
        0.8,
        0.95
      ],
      "candidates": [
        {
          "key": "Tresl",
          "name": "Ivo Trešl",
          "party": "STAN",
          "p": 0.89,
          "band": [
            0.8,
            0.95
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Mikolas",
          "name": "Jaroslav Mikoláš",
          "party": "ANO",
          "p": 0.11,
          "band": [
            0.05,
            0.2
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Steiner",
          "name": "Leo Steiner",
          "party": "JsmePRO!",
          "p": 0.0,
          "band": [
            0.0,
            0.0
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Someone_else",
          "name": "Ostatní",
          "party": "",
          "p": 0.0,
          "band": [
            0.0,
            0.003
          ]
        }
      ],
      "others_on_ballot": [
        "Vladislav Hrbáček (SPD)",
        "Jiří Kobza (Stačilo!)",
        "Ivana Hluštíková (Zelení+Piráti)"
      ],
      "ballot_size": 6,
      "status_cs": "obhájce kandiduje",
      "status_en": "incumbent running",
      "why_cs": "Souboj obhájce s kandidátem ANO v okrese, kde je ANO silné. Rozhoduje, kdo povede po 1. kole.",
      "why_en": "Incumbent vs. ANO in an ANO-strong area; who leads after round 1 is decisive.",
      "watch_cs": "Vede-li Mikoláš po 1. kole, je to zhruba 50 : 50. Sledovat účast v Rakovnicku (Treślova základna).",
      "watch_en": "If Mikoláš leads after round 1 it is roughly a coin flip. Watch turnout around Rakovník (Trešl's base).",
      "redteam": null,
      "grounding": "warn",
      "contamination_risk": "low",
      "research_limitation": "No post-R1 statements/endorsements found (thin same-day indexing); red-team WebSearch exhausted (WebFetch only); volby.gov.cz unavailable; national comeback class not exhaustively counted; okres-level R1 split not retrieved.",
      "independent_redteam_posthoc": false,
      "note": "2026-10-10-louny-senat-obvod6-2026-v2.md",
      "created": "2026-10-10"
    },
    {
      "n": 9,
      "name": "Plzeň-město",
      "series": "plzen-mesto-senat-obvod9-2026",
      "version": 2,
      "stage": "blind",
      "leader": "Rehka",
      "leader_p": 0.82,
      "leader_band": [
        0.7,
        0.9
      ],
      "candidates": [
        {
          "key": "Rehka",
          "name": "Karel Řehka",
          "party": "STAN",
          "p": 0.82,
          "band": [
            0.7,
            0.9
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Kantorova",
          "name": "Lucie Kantorová",
          "party": "ANO",
          "p": 0.18,
          "band": [
            0.1,
            0.3
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Aschenbrenner",
          "name": "Lumír Aschenbrenner",
          "party": "ODS+KoruČes+TOP (navrhl/a ODS)",
          "p": 0.0,
          "band": [
            0.0,
            0.003
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Pouskova",
          "name": "Daniela Pousková",
          "party": "PRO PLZEŇ",
          "p": 0.0,
          "band": [
            0.0,
            0.003
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Someone_else",
          "name": "Ostatní",
          "party": "",
          "p": 0.0,
          "band": [
            0.0,
            0.003
          ]
        }
      ],
      "others_on_ballot": [
        "Jaroslav Novák (JaSaN)",
        "Bohumír Janský (SEN 21)",
        "Jiří Valenta (KSČM)",
        "Július Líška (SPD)"
      ],
      "ballot_size": 8,
      "status_cs": "obhájce kandiduje",
      "status_en": "incumbent running",
      "why_cs": "Obhájce se nejpravděpodobněji utká s Kantorovou (ANO), kterou by ve 2. kole měl porazit. Hlavní riziko: bývalý náčelník generálního štábu Řehka mu bere centristické voliče.",
      "why_en": "The incumbent most likely meets Kantorová (ANO) in the runoff and should beat her. Main risk: former Chief of General Staff Řehka splitting the centre-right vote.",
      "watch_cs": "Předběhne-li Řehka v 1. kole Aschenbrennera, stává se favoritem (~55 %).",
      "watch_en": "If Řehka finishes ahead of Aschenbrenner in round 1, he becomes the favourite (~55 %).",
      "redteam": "adjustment",
      "grounding": "pass   # warn → resolved: assumptions relabelled, double-count removed, residence reframed (ballot: Bdeněves)",
      "contamination_risk": "low   # no numbers seen; red-team's fetch of a pre-R1 Seznam article flagged odds/model probabilities inside (no numbers passed); inherited parent snippet exposure (pre-R1, superseded by the count)",
      "research_limitation": "thin_post_r1_index   # evening 10. 10.: no endorsements/stances found (gap); municipal figures preliminary; ANO-2nd-within-5-pp comeback class uncounted",
      "independent_redteam_posthoc": false,
      "note": "2026-10-10-plzen-mesto-senat-obvod9-2026-v2.md",
      "created": "2026-10-10"
    },
    {
      "n": 12,
      "name": "Strakonice",
      "series": "strakonice-senat-obvod12-2026",
      "version": 1,
      "stage": "blind",
      "leader": "Fiala",
      "leader_p": 0.87,
      "leader_band": [
        0.76,
        0.94
      ],
      "candidates": [
        {
          "key": "Fiala",
          "name": "Tomáš Fiala",
          "party": "NČ",
          "p": 0.87,
          "band": [
            0.76,
            0.94
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Hrdinova",
          "name": "Jana Hrdinová",
          "party": "KDU-ČSL",
          "p": 0.07,
          "band": [
            0.03,
            0.15
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Usaty",
          "name": "Miroslav Ušatý",
          "party": "Svob+SPD+Trikol (navrhl/a Svobodní)",
          "p": 0.06,
          "band": [
            0.02,
            0.12
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Someone_else",
          "name": "Ostatní",
          "party": "",
          "p": 0.0,
          "band": [
            0.0,
            0.005
          ]
        }
      ],
      "others_on_ballot": [],
      "ballot_size": 3,
      "status_cs": "obhájce kandiduje; jen 3 kandidáti",
      "status_en": "incumbent running; only 3 candidates",
      "why_cs": "Jen tři kandidáti, ANO ani ODS nekandidují. Obhájce má reálnou šanci vyhrát už v 1. kole (~43 %).",
      "why_en": "Only three candidates; neither ANO nor ODS runs. The incumbent has a real chance of winning outright in round 1 (~43 %).",
      "watch_cs": "Fiala nad 50 % = rozhodnuto. Jinak záleží na soupeři ve 2. kole.",
      "watch_en": "Fiala above 50 % settles it; otherwise the runoff opponent matters.",
      "redteam": "adjustment",
      "grounding": "pass",
      "contamination_risk": "possible",
      "research_limitation": null,
      "independent_redteam_posthoc": true,
      "note": "2026-10-02-strakonice-senat-obvod12-2026.md",
      "created": "2026-10-02"
    },
    {
      "n": 15,
      "name": "Pelhřimov",
      "series": "pelhrimov-senat-obvod15-2026",
      "version": 2,
      "stage": "blind",
      "leader": "Med",
      "leader_p": 0.78,
      "leader_band": [
        0.63,
        0.88
      ],
      "candidates": [
        {
          "key": "Med",
          "name": "Ladislav Med",
          "party": "KDUODSSTANTOPST (navrhl/a ODS)",
          "p": 0.78,
          "band": [
            0.63,
            0.88
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Kozar",
          "name": "Michal Kozár",
          "party": "ANO",
          "p": 0.22,
          "band": [
            0.12,
            0.37
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Chalupsky",
          "name": "Jaroslav Chalupský",
          "party": "HSR",
          "p": 0.0,
          "band": [
            0.0,
            0.0
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "PavluRadova",
          "name": "Lucie Pavlů Řádová",
          "party": "SPD",
          "p": 0.0,
          "band": [
            0.0,
            0.0
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Someone_else",
          "name": "Ostatní",
          "party": "",
          "p": 0.0,
          "band": [
            0.0,
            0.0
          ]
        }
      ],
      "others_on_ballot": [
        "Pavel Hodáč (KSČM)",
        "Karolína Kubisková (VÝZVA)"
      ],
      "ballot_size": 6,
      "status_cs": "obhájce kandiduje proti kandidátovi vlastního bloku",
      "status_en": "incumbent running against his own bloc's candidate",
      "why_cs": "Nejtěsnější obvod: koalice podporuje Meda proti obhájci Chalupskému. Kandidát ANO má ve 2. kole slabé vyhlídky.",
      "why_en": "One of the closest races: the coalition backs Med against incumbent Chalupský. The ANO candidate's runoff prospects are weak.",
      "watch_cs": "Pořadí Med vs. Chalupský v 1. kole prakticky rozhodne mandát.",
      "watch_en": "The Med vs. Chalupský order in round 1 will practically decide the seat.",
      "redteam": null,
      "grounding": "warn",
      "contamination_risk": "moderate",
      "research_limitation": "No election-night endorsements/statements found (thin same-day indexing — absence not confirmed); volby.gov.cz temporarily down, no okres-level R1 split; national 2020–24 R1-leader counts unaudited; reason ODS did not back Chalupský still unknown.",
      "independent_redteam_posthoc": false,
      "note": "2026-10-10-pelhrimov-senat-obvod15-2026-v2.md",
      "created": "2026-10-10"
    },
    {
      "n": 18,
      "name": "Příbram",
      "series": "pribram-senat-obvod18-2026",
      "version": 2,
      "stage": "blind",
      "leader": "Stepanek",
      "leader_p": 0.93,
      "leader_band": [
        0.86,
        0.97
      ],
      "candidates": [
        {
          "key": "Stepanek",
          "name": "Petr Štěpánek",
          "party": "STAN",
          "p": 0.93,
          "band": [
            0.86,
            0.97
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Danhova",
          "name": "Barbora Daňhová",
          "party": "ANO",
          "p": 0.07,
          "band": [
            0.03,
            0.14
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Luftova",
          "name": "Simona Luftová",
          "party": "Zelení+Piráti (navrhl/a Piráti)",
          "p": 0.0,
          "band": [
            0.0,
            0.0
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Sorna",
          "name": "Josef Šorna",
          "party": "SPD+PRO (navrhl/a PRO)",
          "p": 0.0,
          "band": [
            0.0,
            0.0
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Someone_else",
          "name": "Ostatní",
          "party": "",
          "p": 0.0,
          "band": [
            0.0,
            0.0
          ]
        }
      ],
      "others_on_ballot": [
        "Pavel Vermach (SMS)",
        "Frank Thomas Podstatzky-Lichtenstein (ČZS)"
      ],
      "ballot_size": 6,
      "status_cs": "obhájce kandiduje",
      "status_en": "incumbent running",
      "why_cs": "Bloky jsou v okrese zhruba vyrovnané (krajské volby 2024), ale ANO ve 2. kolech výrazně ztrácí.",
      "why_en": "The blocs are roughly level locally (2024 regional vote), but ANO loses ground in runoffs.",
      "watch_cs": "Vede-li Daňhová po 1. kole, Štěpánek klesá k ~60 %.",
      "watch_en": "If Daňhová leads after round 1, Štěpánek drops to ~60 %.",
      "redteam": null,
      "grounding": "pass",
      "contamination_risk": "none   # only search-result titles (Seznam \"predikce\", CNN Prima \"exkluzivní predikce\" 2. kola, kurzynavolby/sazkynavolby) seen, NOT opened, no numbers — runs/.../01-research.market-quarantine.md. polls-news market-lines incident: no stage read the removed lines (orchestrator saw only Příbram grep hits; researcher/updater/red-team did not read the file).",
      "research_limitation": "Post-R1 coverage thin: no election-night statements/endorsements found (absence of evidence); no exact Příbram municipal numbers; red-team search budget exhausted, 2024 runoff table not auditable (volby.gov.cz maintenance); obvod 18 history single-sourced (Wikipedia).",
      "independent_redteam_posthoc": false,
      "note": "2026-10-10-pribram-senat-obvod18-2026-v2.md",
      "created": "2026-10-10"
    },
    {
      "n": 21,
      "name": "Praha 5",
      "series": "praha-5-senat-obvod21-2026",
      "version": 2,
      "stage": "blind",
      "leader": "Laska",
      "leader_p": 0.64,
      "leader_band": [
        0.48,
        0.76
      ],
      "candidates": [
        {
          "key": "Laska",
          "name": "Václav Láska",
          "party": "SEN 21",
          "p": 0.64,
          "band": [
            0.48,
            0.76
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Sablik",
          "name": "Radko Sáblík",
          "party": "KDUČSL+ODS+STAN (navrhl/a ODS)",
          "p": 0.36,
          "band": [
            0.24,
            0.52
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Sarapatka",
          "name": "Zdeněk Šarapatka",
          "party": "Piráti+TOP+LES (navrhl/a TOP 09)",
          "p": 0.0,
          "band": [
            0.0,
            0.0
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Broz",
          "name": "Lubomír Brož",
          "party": "ANO",
          "p": 0.0,
          "band": [
            0.0,
            0.0
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Someone_else",
          "name": "Ostatní",
          "party": "",
          "p": 0.0,
          "band": [
            0.0,
            0.0
          ]
        }
      ],
      "others_on_ballot": [
        "Ľubomír Augustín (PŘÍSAHA)",
        "Pavel Spirov (SPD)",
        "Petra Prokšanová (KSČM)"
      ],
      "ballot_size": 7,
      "status_cs": "obhájce kandiduje bez podpory stran",
      "status_en": "incumbent running without party support",
      "why_cs": "Láska má osobní značku, ale strany, které ho podpořily v roce 2020, teď stojí za jeho soupeři. Rozštěpený pravý střed.",
      "why_en": "Láska has a personal brand, but the parties that backed him in 2020 now back his rivals. Split centre-right field.",
      "watch_cs": "Láska první → ~65–70 %; Láska třetí → mimo hru. Podpory mezi koly.",
      "watch_en": "Láska first → ~65–70 %; Láska third → out. Endorsements between rounds.",
      "redteam": null,
      "grounding": "pass",
      "contamination_risk": "none",
      "research_limitation": "WebSearch budget exhausted (researcher subagent found nothing); orchestrator used Google News RSS + WebFetch (Novinky, PrahaIN, Seznam Zprávy); many articles headline-only; volby.gov.cz down → no Praha 5 vs Praha 13 R1 breakdown; no runoff endorsements found as of 11. 10. morning (likely timing/coverage gap).",
      "independent_redteam_posthoc": false,
      "note": "2026-10-11-praha-5-senat-obvod21-2026-v2.md",
      "created": "2026-10-11"
    },
    {
      "n": 24,
      "name": "Praha 9",
      "series": "praha-9-senat-obvod24-2026",
      "version": 2,
      "stage": "blind",
      "leader": "Smoljak",
      "leader_p": 0.95,
      "leader_band": [
        0.9,
        0.98
      ],
      "candidates": [
        {
          "key": "Smoljak",
          "name": "David Smoljak",
          "party": "KDUZelSTANPiTOP (navrhl/a STAN)",
          "p": 0.95,
          "band": [
            0.9,
            0.98
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Peckova",
          "name": "Dagmar Pecková",
          "party": "ODS",
          "p": 0.05,
          "band": [
            0.02,
            0.1
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Zalud",
          "name": "Radek Žalud",
          "party": "ANO",
          "p": 0.0,
          "band": [
            0.0,
            0.0
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Laube",
          "name": "Bedřich Laube",
          "party": "Svo+SPD+Tri+PRO (navrhl/a Svobodní)",
          "p": 0.0,
          "band": [
            0.0,
            0.0
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Someone_else",
          "name": "Ostatní",
          "party": "",
          "p": 0.0,
          "band": [
            0.0,
            0.0
          ]
        }
      ],
      "others_on_ballot": [
        "Darina Batyiová (Kruh)"
      ],
      "ballot_size": 5,
      "status_cs": "obhájce kandiduje",
      "status_en": "incumbent running",
      "why_cs": "Nejpravděpodobnější 2. kolo Smoljak vs. Pecková. ODS je v Praze 9 lokálně silná a 1. kolo se koná s komunálními volbami.",
      "why_en": "Most likely runoff: Smoljak vs. Pecková. ODS is locally strong in Praha 9, and round 1 coincides with municipal elections.",
      "watch_cs": "Pecková první → favoritka (~60 %); Žalud druhý → Smoljak ~90 %.",
      "watch_en": "Pecková first → she is the favourite (~60 %); Žalud second → Smoljak ~90 %.",
      "redteam": "none",
      "grounding": "pass",
      "contamination_risk": "none",
      "research_limitation": "WebSearch budget exhausted (200/200) for researcher and red-team; delta research rests on official ČSÚ result + Bing News RSS headlines + 2 article fetches (ČT24, Novinky 10. 10.); runoff reversal base rate unaudited",
      "independent_redteam_posthoc": false,
      "note": "2026-10-11-praha-9-senat-obvod24-2026-v2.md",
      "created": "2026-10-11"
    },
    {
      "n": 27,
      "name": "Praha 1",
      "series": "praha-1-senat-obvod27-2026",
      "version": 2,
      "stage": "blind",
      "leader": "Padevet",
      "leader_p": 0.93,
      "leader_band": [
        0.85,
        0.97
      ],
      "candidates": [
        {
          "key": "Padevet",
          "name": "Jiří Padevět",
          "party": "ODSSTANPirátTOP (navrhl/a STAN)",
          "p": 0.93,
          "band": [
            0.85,
            0.97
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "J_Cizinsky",
          "name": "Jan Čižinský",
          "party": "KDU+Zel+PHASOBĚ (navrhl/a PRAHA SOBĚ)",
          "p": 0.07,
          "band": [
            0.03,
            0.15
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Dudra",
          "name": "Ján Dudra",
          "party": "ANO",
          "p": 0.0,
          "band": [
            0.0,
            0.0
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Someone_else",
          "name": "Ostatní",
          "party": "",
          "p": 0.0,
          "band": [
            0.0,
            0.0
          ]
        }
      ],
      "others_on_ballot": [
        "Jiří Morštadt (Generace)",
        "Pavel Čižinský (Levice)",
        "Jan Štern (TEAM)",
        "Vojtěch Ryvola (GEN)",
        "Jiří Pavel Pešek (Švýcarská dem.)",
        "Vladimír Kolman (SOCDEM)"
      ],
      "ballot_size": 9,
      "status_cs": "volné místo (Němcová nekandiduje)",
      "status_en": "open seat (Němcová not running)",
      "why_cs": "Souboj dvou silných kandidátů; Čižinský má silnou základnu v Praze 7. Odhad se po red-teamu otočil (z 48 : 49).",
      "why_en": "Two strong candidates; Čižinský has a strong base in Praha 7. The lead flipped after the red-team (from 48–49).",
      "watch_cs": "Kdo vede 1. kolo, má ~70 %. Rozdíl Praha 7 vs. Praha 1.",
      "watch_en": "Whoever leads round 1 gets ~70 %. Praha 7 vs. Praha 1 margins.",
      "redteam": null,
      "grounding": "pass",
      "contamination_risk": "none",
      "research_limitation": "websearch_budget_exhausted   # researcher + red-team WebSearch refused; news via Google News RSS + WebFetch (ČT24, PrahaIN)",
      "independent_redteam_posthoc": false,
      "note": "2026-10-11-praha-1-senat-obvod27-2026-v2.md",
      "created": "2026-10-11"
    },
    {
      "n": 30,
      "name": "Kladno",
      "series": "sipova-senat-kladno-obvod30-2026",
      "version": 3,
      "stage": "blind",
      "leader": "Sipova",
      "leader_p": 0.53,
      "leader_band": [
        0.39,
        0.66
      ],
      "candidates": [
        {
          "key": "Sipova",
          "name": "Adéla Sucharda Šípová",
          "party": "ZelSTAPirTOPSEN (navrhl/a Piráti)",
          "p": 0.53,
          "band": [
            0.39,
            0.66
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Patak",
          "name": "Petr Paták",
          "party": "ODS",
          "p": 0.47,
          "band": [
            0.34,
            0.61
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Gerloch",
          "name": "Aleš Gerloch",
          "party": "ANO",
          "p": 0.0,
          "band": [
            0.0,
            0.0
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Someone_else",
          "name": "Ostatní",
          "party": "",
          "p": 0.0,
          "band": [
            0.0,
            0.0
          ]
        }
      ],
      "others_on_ballot": [
        "Jan Klas (NČ)",
        "Jaroslav Pelc (PŘÍSAHA)",
        "Marcela Machalová (SPD)"
      ],
      "ballot_size": 6,
      "status_cs": "obhájkyně kandiduje",
      "status_en": "incumbent running",
      "why_cs": "Tříčlenný souboj. Šípová je mírná favoritka; klíčové je, zda se ve 2. kole utká s ANO (lepší pro ni), nebo s ODS.",
      "why_en": "Three-way race. Šípová is a slight favourite; the key is whether her runoff opponent is ANO (better for her) or ODS.",
      "watch_cs": "Kdo obsadí druhé postupové místo (Gerloch vs. Paták).",
      "watch_en": "Who takes the second runoff slot (Gerloch vs. Paták).",
      "redteam": null,
      "grounding": "pass",
      "contamination_risk": "low",
      "research_limitation": "search snippets only; no candidate quotes; no endorsements found; Kladno city municipal final shares not found; Senate-wide small-margin R1-leader base rate not retrieved",
      "independent_redteam_posthoc": false,
      "note": "2026-10-10-sipova-senat-kladno-obvod30-2026-v3.md",
      "created": "2026-10-10"
    },
    {
      "n": 33,
      "name": "Děčín",
      "series": "decin-senat-obvod33-2026",
      "version": 1,
      "stage": "blind",
      "leader": "Linhart",
      "leader_p": 0.84,
      "leader_band": [
        0.7,
        0.91
      ],
      "candidates": [
        {
          "key": "Linhart",
          "name": "Zbyněk Linhart",
          "party": "STAN+SLK (navrhl/a STAN)",
          "p": 0.84,
          "band": [
            0.7,
            0.91
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Hejcman",
          "name": "Michal Hejcman",
          "party": "ANO",
          "p": 0.145,
          "band": [
            0.07,
            0.27
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Lehka",
          "name": "Anna Lehká",
          "party": "MÍSTNÍ HNHRM",
          "p": 0.011,
          "band": [
            0.004,
            0.035
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Skalicky",
          "name": "Jan Skalický",
          "party": "PRO",
          "p": 0.003,
          "band": [
            0.001,
            0.015
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Someone_else",
          "name": "Ostatní",
          "party": "",
          "p": 0.001,
          "band": [
            0.0005,
            0.01
          ]
        }
      ],
      "others_on_ballot": [
        "Miroslav Štross (Zelen+Pirát+SEN)"
      ],
      "ballot_size": 5,
      "status_cs": "obhájce kandiduje",
      "status_en": "incumbent running",
      "why_cs": "Obhájce v roce 2020 vyhrál už v 1. kole (52,8 %). ANO je v okrese silné, ale druhé kolo by Linhart pravděpodobně vyhrál.",
      "why_en": "The incumbent won outright in round 1 in 2020 (52.8 %). ANO is strong locally, but Linhart would likely win a runoff.",
      "watch_cs": "Vede-li Hejcman 1. kolo, Linhart klesá k ~45 %.",
      "watch_en": "If Hejcman leads round 1, Linhart drops to ~45 %.",
      "redteam": "adjustment",
      "grounding": "pass",
      "contamination_risk": "possible",
      "research_limitation": "Session WebSearch budget exhausted during red-team (200/200) → red-team used WebFetch only (cs.wikipedia, programydovoleb.cz); iROZHLAS 403, Děčínský deník paywalled/404, volby.gov.cz and senat.cz 404. No district polls, 2026 campaign news or endorsements could be searched. Skalický SPD/Motoristé backing unresolved (iROZHLAS snippet yes vs cs.wikipedia PRO-only).",
      "independent_redteam_posthoc": false,
      "note": "2026-10-02-decin-senat-obvod33-2026.md",
      "created": "2026-10-02"
    },
    {
      "n": 36,
      "name": "Česká Lípa",
      "series": "ceska-lipa-senat-obvod36-2026",
      "version": 2,
      "stage": "blind",
      "leader": "Puta",
      "leader_p": 0.72,
      "leader_band": [
        0.58,
        0.82
      ],
      "candidates": [
        {
          "key": "Puta",
          "name": "Martin Půta",
          "party": "SLK",
          "p": 0.72,
          "band": [
            0.58,
            0.82
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Volfova",
          "name": "Jitka Volfová",
          "party": "ANO",
          "p": 0.28,
          "band": [
            0.18,
            0.42
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Vosecky",
          "name": "Jiří Vosecký",
          "party": "NK",
          "p": 0.0,
          "band": [
            0.0,
            0.0
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Vomacka",
          "name": "Vít Vomáčka",
          "party": "ODS",
          "p": 0.0,
          "band": [
            0.0,
            0.0
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Someone_else",
          "name": "Ostatní",
          "party": "",
          "p": 0.0,
          "band": [
            0.0,
            0.0
          ]
        }
      ],
      "others_on_ballot": [
        "Leoš Hamrský (KSČM)"
      ],
      "ballot_size": 5,
      "status_cs": "obhájce kandiduje jako nezávislý",
      "status_en": "incumbent running as an independent",
      "why_cs": "Volfová (ANO) téměř jistě postoupí, ale ve 2. kole je slabší. Rizika pro Půtu: nepravomocné odsouzení (odvolání) a Vosecký, který mu může vzít postup.",
      "why_en": "Volfová (ANO) will almost surely advance but is weaker in a runoff. Risks for Půta: a non-final conviction (under appeal) and Vosecký taking a runoff slot.",
      "watch_cs": "Půta první → 80+ %; Vosecký před Půtou → ~50 %.",
      "watch_en": "Půta first → 80+ %; Vosecký ahead of Půta → ~50 %.",
      "redteam": "adjustment",
      "grounding": "warn",
      "contamination_risk": "low   # orchestrator read polls-news before the market lines were removed and saw, for OTHER districts only, Tipsport timing, the Sweep-9 \"odds moved towards AI s modelem in 3, 6, 15, 54, 69, away in 9\" bullet, the Pelhřimov correction and a Kladno 30 price; no number or direction for obvod 36 was seen and none of it reached any stage prompt (the researcher could also read polls-news; its brief contains no market content); also: pre-R1 STEM analyst qualitative quote quarantined; cnn.iprima.cz URL in red-team search results not opened",
      "research_limitation": "Search tool returned mostly stale items on election night: no statements, endorsements, Česká Lípa municipal result or municipality-level R1 data retrieved. 2024 runoff-by-margin table audited from one source (Novinky + cs.wiki winners); 2020/2022 margin-level ANO data anecdotal. Volfová as Půta's deputy hejtman 2016–2020 from a search snippet only (unconfirmed).",
      "independent_redteam_posthoc": false,
      "note": "2026-10-10-ceska-lipa-senat-obvod36-2026-v2.md",
      "created": "2026-10-10"
    },
    {
      "n": 39,
      "name": "Trutnov",
      "series": "trutnov-senat-obvod39-2026",
      "version": 1,
      "stage": "blind",
      "leader": "Sobotka",
      "leader_p": 0.85,
      "leader_band": [
        0.72,
        0.92
      ],
      "candidates": [
        {
          "key": "Sobotka",
          "name": "Jan Sobotka",
          "party": "STAN",
          "p": 0.85,
          "band": [
            0.72,
            0.92
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Chovancova",
          "name": "Zuzana Chovancová",
          "party": "ANO",
          "p": 0.14,
          "band": [
            0.07,
            0.26
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Mraz",
          "name": "Radek Mráz",
          "party": "SPD",
          "p": 0.005,
          "band": [
            0.001,
            0.02
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Someone_else",
          "name": "Ostatní",
          "party": "",
          "p": 0.005,
          "band": [
            0.001,
            0.02
          ]
        }
      ],
      "others_on_ballot": [
        "Hynek Beran (PRO)"
      ],
      "ballot_size": 4,
      "status_cs": "obhájce kandiduje",
      "status_en": "incumbent running",
      "why_cs": "Silný obhájce (2020: 41,7 % v 1. kole, 74,6 % ve 2.). Šance na výhru už v 1. kole kolem 31 %.",
      "why_en": "Strong incumbent (2020: 41.7 % in round 1, 74.6 % in the runoff). About a 31 % chance of an outright round-1 win.",
      "watch_cs": "Vede-li Chovancová, Sobotka klesá k ~45–50 %.",
      "watch_en": "If Chovancová leads, Sobotka drops to ~45–50 %.",
      "redteam": "adjustment",
      "grounding": "pass",
      "contamination_risk": "possible",
      "research_limitation": null,
      "independent_redteam_posthoc": true,
      "note": "2026-10-02-trutnov-senat-obvod39-2026.md",
      "created": "2026-10-02"
    },
    {
      "n": 42,
      "name": "Kolín",
      "series": "kolin-senat-obvod42-2026",
      "version": 2,
      "stage": "blind",
      "leader": "Kaspar",
      "leader_p": 0.95,
      "leader_band": [
        0.89,
        0.98
      ],
      "candidates": [
        {
          "key": "Kaspar",
          "name": "Michael Kašpar",
          "party": "STAN",
          "p": 0.95,
          "band": [
            0.89,
            0.98
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Brzobohata",
          "name": "Andrea Brzobohatá",
          "party": "ANO",
          "p": 0.05,
          "band": [
            0.02,
            0.11
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Schulz",
          "name": "Roman Schulz",
          "party": "ODS+TOP 09 (navrhl/a ODS)",
          "p": 0.0,
          "band": [
            0.0,
            0.0
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Sehnal",
          "name": "Pavel Sehnal",
          "party": "APB",
          "p": 0.0,
          "band": [
            0.0,
            0.0
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Someone_else",
          "name": "Ostatní",
          "party": "",
          "p": 0.0,
          "band": [
            0.0,
            0.0
          ]
        }
      ],
      "others_on_ballot": [
        "František Třeštik (JaSaN)",
        "Jiří Rynekr (KSČM)",
        "Antonín Dušek (SPD)"
      ],
      "ballot_size": 7,
      "status_cs": "volné místo (Kárník nekandiduje)",
      "status_en": "open seat (Kárník not running)",
      "why_cs": "Starosta Kolína je jasný favorit; hlavní riziko je 2. kolo proti Schulzovi (pravý střed proti pravému středu).",
      "why_en": "The mayor of Kolín is a clear favourite; the main risk is a runoff against Schulz (centre-right vs. centre-right).",
      "watch_cs": "Kašpar vede o 10+ bodů → 92+ %; souboj se Schulzem → ~53 %.",
      "watch_en": "Kašpar leads by 10+ pp → 92+ %; runoff against Schulz → ~53 %.",
      "redteam": "none",
      "grounding": "warn",
      "contamination_risk": "none     # no odds/STEM/CNN Prima page opened; only old CNN Prima URL titles in search listings (no numbers)",
      "research_limitation": "session web-search budget exhausted (200/200) after 5 useful queries; search index returned nothing dated after 2. 10.; endorsements (Schulz/ODS/TOP 09, SPD), election-night statements and the Kolín 2026 list affiliation unverified; margin-conditioned (≥40 %, ≥15 pp) leader-loss rate only partially checked (2022/2024 via summariser)",
      "independent_redteam_posthoc": false,
      "note": "2026-10-10-kolin-senat-obvod42-2026-v2.md",
      "created": "2026-10-10"
    },
    {
      "n": 45,
      "name": "Hradec Králové",
      "series": "hradec-kralove-senat-obvod45-2026",
      "version": 2,
      "stage": "blind",
      "leader": "Dvorak",
      "leader_p": 0.54,
      "leader_band": [
        0.38,
        0.7
      ],
      "candidates": [
        {
          "key": "Dvorak",
          "name": "Martin Dvořák",
          "party": "ZelSTANPiTOPHDK (navrhl/a STAN)",
          "p": 0.54,
          "band": [
            0.38,
            0.7
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Ceralova_Petrofova",
          "name": "Zuzana Ceralová Petrofová",
          "party": "ODS",
          "p": 0.46,
          "band": [
            0.3,
            0.62
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Holasek",
          "name": "Jan Holásek",
          "party": "VPM+HP+MY+RH+NČ (navrhl/a RH)",
          "p": 0.0,
          "band": [
            0.0,
            0.0
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Hulkova",
          "name": "Jana Hůlková",
          "party": "ANO",
          "p": 0.0,
          "band": [
            0.0,
            0.0
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Someone_else",
          "name": "Ostatní",
          "party": "",
          "p": 0.0,
          "band": [
            0.0,
            0.0
          ]
        }
      ],
      "others_on_ballot": [
        "Monika Nebeská (NK)",
        "Vladimír Dryml (ČSSD)",
        "Ivan Picek (SPD)"
      ],
      "ballot_size": 7,
      "status_cs": "obhájce kandiduje",
      "status_en": "incumbent running",
      "why_cs": "Tři kandidáti pravého středu se dělí o voliče; Hůlková (ANO) postoupí asi v 79 % scénářů, ale 2. kolo vyhrává jen zřídka.",
      "why_en": "Three centre-right candidates split the vote; Hůlková (ANO) reaches the runoff in ~79 % of scenarios but rarely wins it.",
      "watch_cs": "Kdo z pravého středu skončí v 1. kole první; souboj Dvořák vs. Holásek je zhruba 50 : 50.",
      "watch_en": "Which centre-right candidate finishes first; Dvořák vs. Holásek is roughly a coin flip.",
      "redteam": "adjustment",
      "grounding": "pass",
      "contamination_risk": "low      # only page titles of CNN Prima (old result pages + a viewer \"anketa\" title) and an older seznamzpravy \"předpověď\" title appeared in search listings; none opened, no number seen",
      "research_limitation": "partial_news_coverage   # search index thin after 10. 10. evening; no endorsements found from Nebeská/Holásek/SPD; precinct geography not accessed; national R1-leader rate only partially audited (ČSÚ ~70 %, not margin-conditioned)",
      "independent_redteam_posthoc": false,
      "note": "2026-10-10-hradec-kralove-senat-obvod45-2026-v2.md",
      "created": "2026-10-10"
    },
    {
      "n": 48,
      "name": "Rychnov nad Kněžnou",
      "series": "rychnov-nad-kneznou-senat-obvod48-2026",
      "version": 1,
      "stage": "blind",
      "leader": "Grulich",
      "leader_p": 0.71,
      "leader_band": [
        0.55,
        0.86
      ],
      "candidates": [
        {
          "key": "Grulich",
          "name": "Jan Grulich",
          "party": "KDUODSSTPTOPLES (navrhl/a TOP 09)",
          "p": 0.71,
          "band": [
            0.55,
            0.86
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Sadovsky",
          "name": "Petr Sadovský",
          "party": "ANO",
          "p": 0.289,
          "band": [
            0.14,
            0.45
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Someone_else",
          "name": "Ostatní",
          "party": "",
          "p": 0.001,
          "band": [
            0.0005,
            0.002
          ]
        }
      ],
      "others_on_ballot": [],
      "ballot_size": 2,
      "status_cs": "obhájce kandiduje; jen 2 kandidáti — rozhodne 1. kolo",
      "status_en": "incumbent running; only 2 candidates — round 1 decides",
      "why_cs": "Jen dva kandidáti, takže rozhodne přímo 1. kolo. Model převádí výsledek sněmovních voleb 2025 v okrese na dva kandidáty, přičemž v senátních volbách obvykle oslabuje vládní strana.",
      "why_en": "Only two candidates, so round 1 decides. The model maps the 2025 Chamber result onto two candidates, with the usual Senate swing against the governing party.",
      "watch_cs": "Výsledek 1. kola 10. 10. je konečný.",
      "watch_en": "The round-1 result on 10 Oct is final.",
      "redteam": "adjustment",
      "grounding": "pass",
      "contamination_risk": "none",
      "research_limitation": "websearch_budget_exhausted",
      "independent_redteam_posthoc": false,
      "note": "2026-10-02-rychnov-nad-kneznou-senat-obvod48-2026.md",
      "created": "2026-10-02"
    },
    {
      "n": 51,
      "name": "Žďár nad Sázavou",
      "series": "zdar-nad-sazavou-senat-obvod51-2026",
      "version": 2,
      "stage": "blind",
      "leader": "Klement",
      "leader_p": 0.56,
      "leader_band": [
        0.4,
        0.7
      ],
      "candidates": [
        {
          "key": "Klement",
          "name": "Josef Klement",
          "party": "KDU-ČSL",
          "p": 0.56,
          "band": [
            0.4,
            0.7
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Smarda",
          "name": "Michal Šmarda",
          "party": "SOM+Volt+HR (navrhl/a Volt)",
          "p": 0.439,
          "band": [
            0.3,
            0.6
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Cerny",
          "name": "Radek Černý",
          "party": "ODS+Piráti+STO (navrhl/a ODS)",
          "p": 0.001,
          "band": [
            0.0,
            0.005
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Koten",
          "name": "Radek Koten",
          "party": "SPD",
          "p": 0.0,
          "band": [
            0.0,
            0.0
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Someone_else",
          "name": "Ostatní",
          "party": "",
          "p": 0.0,
          "band": [
            0.0,
            0.0
          ]
        }
      ],
      "others_on_ballot": [
        "David Moos (SD-SN)"
      ],
      "ballot_size": 5,
      "status_cs": "obhájce kandiduje; ANO nekandiduje",
      "status_en": "incumbent running; no ANO candidate",
      "why_cs": "Repríza roku 2020 (Klement porazil Šmardu 59,8 : 40,2). ANO tu nemá kandidáta.",
      "why_en": "A rematch of 2020 (Klement beat Šmarda 59.8–40.2). ANO fields no candidate.",
      "watch_cs": "Vede-li Šmarda po 1. kole, Klement klesá k ~45 %.",
      "watch_en": "If Šmarda leads after round 1, Klement drops to ~45 %.",
      "redteam": null,
      "grounding": "warn   # non-blocking: transfer splits/turnout ratios were unlabeled assumptions → labeled below",
      "contamination_risk": "none",
      "research_limitation": "websearch_budget_exhausted   # session WebSearch 200/200; news via Google News RSS + WebFetch/Chrome (ČT24, Seznam Zprávy, Jihlavská Drbna, Žďárský deník, ČRo Vysočina); iDNES consent wall not accepted; no municipality-level R1 senate data",
      "independent_redteam_posthoc": false,
      "note": "2026-10-11-zdar-nad-sazavou-senat-obvod51-2026-v2.md",
      "created": "2026-10-11"
    },
    {
      "n": 54,
      "name": "Znojmo",
      "series": "znojmo-senat-obvod54-2026",
      "version": 2,
      "stage": "blind",
      "leader": "Tretina",
      "leader_p": 0.84,
      "leader_band": [
        0.72,
        0.93
      ],
      "candidates": [
        {
          "key": "Tretina",
          "name": "Tomáš Třetina",
          "party": "KDUODSSTANPiTOP (navrhl/a TOP 09)",
          "p": 0.84,
          "band": [
            0.72,
            0.93
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Kynera",
          "name": "Jiří Kyněra",
          "party": "ANO",
          "p": 0.16,
          "band": [
            0.07,
            0.28
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Beranova",
          "name": "Bohumila Beranová",
          "party": "HR",
          "p": 0.0,
          "band": [
            0.0,
            0.0
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "RedovaFajmonova",
          "name": "Petra Rédová Fajmonová",
          "party": "Stačilo!",
          "p": 0.0,
          "band": [
            0.0,
            0.0
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Ruzicka",
          "name": "Jindřich Růžička",
          "party": "NK",
          "p": 0.0,
          "band": [
            0.0,
            0.0
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Cerny",
          "name": "Pavel Černý",
          "party": "PŘÍSAHA",
          "p": 0.0,
          "band": [
            0.0,
            0.0
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Someone_else",
          "name": "Ostatní",
          "party": "",
          "p": 0.0,
          "band": [
            0.0,
            0.0
          ]
        }
      ],
      "others_on_ballot": [],
      "ballot_size": 6,
      "status_cs": "obhájce kandiduje",
      "status_en": "incumbent running",
      "why_cs": "Kyněra je jedinou volbou pro vládní voliče (SPD ani Motoristé nekandidují), ale obhájce s širokou koalicí je favorit.",
      "why_en": "Kyněra is the only option for government voters (no SPD or Motoristé candidate), but the broadly backed incumbent is favoured.",
      "watch_cs": "Vede-li Kyněra, Třetina klesá k ~42 %.",
      "watch_en": "If Kyněra leads, Třetina drops to ~42 %.",
      "redteam": null,
      "grounding": "warn       # 0 material; label fixes applied (ANO-in-gov and turnout = ASSUMPTION; latent ANO in Růžička = SPECULATION; parent-sourced facts cited)",
      "contamination_risk": "none   # no odds/STEM/CNN Prima opened; only unrelated cnn.iprima.cz titles in search lists — see runs/.../01-research.market-quarantine.md",
      "research_limitation": "websearch_budget_exhausted (researcher and red-team); volby.gov.cz unavailable; post-R1 article bodies behind Google consent wall (titles only); no endorsements found = absence of evidence; Růžička profiled from headlines only.",
      "independent_redteam_posthoc": false,
      "note": "2026-10-10-znojmo-senat-obvod54-2026-v2.md",
      "created": "2026-10-10"
    },
    {
      "n": 57,
      "name": "Vyškov",
      "series": "vyskov-senat-obvod57-2026",
      "version": 1,
      "stage": "blind",
      "leader": "Grolich",
      "leader_p": 0.8,
      "leader_band": [
        0.68,
        0.9
      ],
      "candidates": [
        {
          "key": "Grolich",
          "name": "Jan Grolich",
          "party": "KDU-ČSL",
          "p": 0.8,
          "band": [
            0.68,
            0.9
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Absolonova",
          "name": "Petra Absolonová",
          "party": "ANO",
          "p": 0.19,
          "band": [
            0.09,
            0.31
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Fladr",
          "name": "Jaroslav Fládr",
          "party": "PŘÍSAHA",
          "p": 0.007,
          "band": [
            0.002,
            0.02
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Someone_else",
          "name": "Ostatní",
          "party": "",
          "p": 0.003,
          "band": [
            0.001,
            0.01
          ]
        }
      ],
      "others_on_ballot": [],
      "ballot_size": 3,
      "status_cs": "volné místo (Zitterbart kandiduje v Brně)",
      "status_en": "open seat (Zitterbart runs in Brno)",
      "why_cs": "Bloky, které se v roce 2020 dělily, teď stojí za jedním kandidátem. Šance na výhru v 1. kole ~50 %.",
      "why_en": "Blocs that split in 2020 now back a single candidate. ~50 % chance of an outright round-1 win.",
      "watch_cs": "Grolich nad 50 % = rozhodnuto; vede-li Absolonová, ~58 %.",
      "watch_en": "Grolich above 50 % settles it; if Absolonová leads, ~58 %.",
      "redteam": "adjustment",
      "grounding": "pass",
      "contamination_risk": "none",
      "research_limitation": "websearch_budget_exhausted",
      "independent_redteam_posthoc": false,
      "note": "2026-10-02-vyskov-senat-obvod57-2026.md",
      "created": "2026-10-02"
    },
    {
      "n": 60,
      "name": "Brno-město",
      "series": "brno-mesto-senat-obvod60-2026",
      "version": 4,
      "stage": "blind",
      "leader": "Papousek",
      "leader_p": 0.84,
      "leader_band": [
        0.76,
        0.91
      ],
      "candidates": [
        {
          "key": "Papousek",
          "name": "Zdeněk Papoušek",
          "party": "KDUODSPirTOPFBr (navrhl/a ODS)",
          "p": 0.84,
          "band": [
            0.76,
            0.91
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Zitterbart",
          "name": "Karel Zitterbart",
          "party": "STAN",
          "p": 0.16,
          "band": [
            0.09,
            0.24
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Sterba",
          "name": "Jaroslav Štěrba",
          "party": "ANO",
          "p": 0.0,
          "band": [
            0.0,
            0.0
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Someone_else",
          "name": "Ostatní",
          "party": "",
          "p": 0.0,
          "band": [
            0.0,
            0.0
          ]
        }
      ],
      "others_on_ballot": [
        "Klára Alžběta Samková (Stačilo!)",
        "Veronika Holcnerová (Kruh)",
        "Jaroslav Turánek (SPD)"
      ],
      "ballot_size": 6,
      "status_cs": "obhájce kandiduje",
      "status_en": "incumbent running",
      "why_cs": "Obhájce v městském obvodě, kde ANO v roce 2024 ve 2. kole prohrálo 32 : 68. Druhé postupové místo je otevřené.",
      "why_en": "Incumbent in an urban district where ANO lost the 2024 runoff 32–68. The second runoff slot is open.",
      "watch_cs": "Kdo skončí druhý: Štěrba, nebo Zitterbart.",
      "watch_en": "Who finishes second: Štěrba or Zitterbart.",
      "redteam": "none",
      "grounding": "pass",
      "contamination_risk": "none",
      "research_limitation": "websearch_budget_exhausted",
      "independent_redteam_posthoc": false,
      "note": "2026-10-11-brno-mesto-senat-obvod60-2026-v4.md",
      "created": "2026-10-11"
    },
    {
      "n": 63,
      "name": "Přerov",
      "series": "prerov-senat-obvod63-2026",
      "version": 2,
      "stage": "blind",
      "leader": "Vrana",
      "leader_p": 0.51,
      "leader_band": [
        0.36,
        0.65
      ],
      "candidates": [
        {
          "key": "Vrana",
          "name": "Petr Vrána",
          "party": "ANO",
          "p": 0.51,
          "band": [
            0.36,
            0.65
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Navarik",
          "name": "Jakub Navařík",
          "party": "KDU+ODS+STA+TOP (navrhl/a ODS)",
          "p": 0.49,
          "band": [
            0.35,
            0.64
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Chromec",
          "name": "Dan Chromec",
          "party": "SPD",
          "p": 0.0,
          "band": [
            0.0,
            0.0
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Obrtel",
          "name": "Marek Obrtel",
          "party": "ČSNS",
          "p": 0.0,
          "band": [
            0.0,
            0.0
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Someone_else",
          "name": "Ostatní",
          "party": "",
          "p": 0.0,
          "band": [
            0.0,
            0.0
          ]
        }
      ],
      "others_on_ballot": [],
      "ballot_size": 4,
      "status_cs": "volné místo (Seitlová končí)",
      "status_en": "open seat (Seitlová retiring)",
      "why_cs": "Vrána pravděpodobně vyhraje 1. kolo, ale ANO tu ve 2. kolech prohrálo 0 : 2 a celkově vyhrává jen ~20 % 2. kol.",
      "why_en": "Vrána likely wins round 1, but ANO is 0–2 in runoffs here and wins only ~20 % of runoffs overall.",
      "watch_cs": "Vede-li Navařík → 80–85 %; vede-li Vrána o 8+ bodů nad 43 % → ~45–50 %.",
      "watch_en": "If Navařík leads → 80–85 %; if Vrána leads by 8+ pp above 43 % → ~45–50 %.",
      "redteam": "rebuild",
      "grounding": "warn_fixed",
      "contamination_risk": "low",
      "research_limitation": "no candidate statements/endorsements found (paywalls/403); R1-leader runoff base rate 2020–24 and national ANO-govt-year conditional unaudited; 2025 okres Chamber figures snippet-only",
      "independent_redteam_posthoc": false,
      "note": "2026-10-10-prerov-senat-obvod63-2026-v2.md",
      "created": "2026-10-10"
    },
    {
      "n": 66,
      "name": "Litovel",
      "series": "litovel-senat-obvod66-2026",
      "version": 3,
      "stage": "blind",
      "leader": "Ostadal",
      "leader_p": 0.8,
      "leader_band": [
        0.68,
        0.89
      ],
      "candidates": [
        {
          "key": "Ostadal",
          "name": "Marek Ošťádal",
          "party": "24/7",
          "p": 0.8,
          "band": [
            0.68,
            0.89
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Skurek",
          "name": "Martin Škurek",
          "party": "ANO",
          "p": 0.18,
          "band": [
            0.1,
            0.3
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Kohajda",
          "name": "Michael Kohajda",
          "party": "KDU-ČSL",
          "p": 0.02,
          "band": [
            0.005,
            0.08
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Jelinek",
          "name": "Pavel Jelínek",
          "party": "SPD",
          "p": 0.0,
          "band": [
            0.0,
            0.0
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Someone_else",
          "name": "Ostatní",
          "party": "",
          "p": 0.0,
          "band": [
            0.0,
            0.0
          ]
        }
      ],
      "others_on_ballot": [
        "Zdeněk Beil (Levice)"
      ],
      "ballot_size": 5,
      "status_cs": "obhájce kandiduje bez podpory stran",
      "status_en": "incumbent running without party support",
      "why_cs": "Velmi těsné: Ošťádal vs. Kohajda o místo ve 2. kole proti Škurkovi, který postoupí asi v 70 % scénářů, ale 2. kolo vyhrává zřídka.",
      "why_en": "Very close: Ošťádal vs. Kohajda for the runoff slot against Škurek, who advances in ~70 % of scenarios but rarely wins a runoff.",
      "watch_cs": "Kdo z dvojice Ošťádal/Kohajda postoupí.",
      "watch_en": "Which of Ošťádal/Kohajda advances.",
      "redteam": "adjustment",
      "grounding": "pass",
      "contamination_risk": "low   # orchestrator (not stages) saw via grep of runs/_senat-2026-polls-news.md lines 215-220 before Step A: \"Market reference (evening, NOT scored)\" bullet (odds moved towards AI s modelem in 3, 6, 15, 54, 69, away in 9; no obvod-66 number or direction), Pelhřimov correction bullet, Saturday Tipsport bullet with Kladno 30 price. No obvod-66 market info; not passed to any stage; judged no influence. Also: Hanácké noviny preview mentions bookmaker odds — number not recorded (01-research.market-quarantine.md)",
      "research_limitation": "count_not_final_227_of_229_precincts_postupuje_empty; iROZHLAS 403, Seznam Zprávy unreadable; no endorsements found yet",
      "independent_redteam_posthoc": false,
      "note": "2026-10-10-litovel-senat-obvod66-2026-v3.md",
      "created": "2026-10-10"
    },
    {
      "n": 69,
      "name": "Frýdek-Místek",
      "series": "frydek-mistek-senat-obvod69-2026",
      "version": 2,
      "stage": "blind",
      "leader": "Pesatova",
      "leader_p": 0.52,
      "leader_band": [
        0.38,
        0.68
      ],
      "candidates": [
        {
          "key": "Pesatova",
          "name": "Helena Pešatová",
          "party": "STAN+Piráti+TOP (navrhl/a STAN)",
          "p": 0.52,
          "band": [
            0.38,
            0.68
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Korc",
          "name": "Petr Korč",
          "party": "NMFM",
          "p": 0.48,
          "band": [
            0.32,
            0.62
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Krpel",
          "name": "Tomáš Krpel",
          "party": "SPD",
          "p": 0.0,
          "band": [
            0.0,
            0.0
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Someone_else",
          "name": "Ostatní",
          "party": "",
          "p": 0.0,
          "band": [
            0.0,
            0.0
          ]
        }
      ],
      "others_on_ballot": [
        "Petr Hrnčárek (KSČM)",
        "Nela Lisková (NEZLOMNÍ)",
        "René Hompora (Švýcarská dem.)",
        "Zdeněk Navrátil (Evo)"
      ],
      "ballot_size": 7,
      "status_cs": "obhájkyně kandiduje; ANO ani ODS nekandidují",
      "status_en": "incumbent running; no ANO or ODS candidate",
      "why_cs": "Bez kandidáta ANO a ODS; Korč je hlavní soupeř a útočiště pro voliče ANO ve 2. kole.",
      "why_en": "No ANO or ODS candidate; Korč is the main rival and the runoff refuge for ANO voters.",
      "watch_cs": "Náskok Pešatové 10+ bodů → 85–90 %; pod 5 bodů → 60–65 %.",
      "watch_en": "Pešatová lead of 10+ pp → 85–90 %; under 5 pp → 60–65 %.",
      "redteam": "adjustment",
      "grounding": "warn",
      "contamination_risk": "low   # red-team saw odds incidentally in a search snippet; its recommended −2 pp is derivable from the update's own scenario mean; orchestrator never saw the numbers",
      "research_limitation": "Search thin: no election-night endorsements found, 2026 F-M municipal shares and Pešatová's Frýdlant result not retrieved, Navrátil/REvoluce lean unknown; margin-conditional R1-leader runoff rate unaudited (national ~70 % unconditional, ČSÚ, no denominator). Updater/grounding/aggregation by orchestrator + grounding-checker subagent; researcher and red-team separate subagents.",
      "independent_redteam_posthoc": false,
      "note": "2026-10-10-frydek-mistek-senat-obvod69-2026-v2.md",
      "created": "2026-10-10"
    },
    {
      "n": 72,
      "name": "Ostrava-město",
      "series": "ostrava-mesto-senat-obvod72-2026",
      "version": 2,
      "stage": "blind",
      "leader": "Simetka",
      "leader_p": 0.91,
      "leader_band": [
        0.84,
        0.96
      ],
      "candidates": [
        {
          "key": "Simetka",
          "name": "Ondřej Šimetka",
          "party": "KDUODSSTANPiTOP (navrhl/a ODS)",
          "p": 0.91,
          "band": [
            0.84,
            0.96
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Barankova_Vilamova",
          "name": "Lucie Baránková Vilamová",
          "party": "ANO",
          "p": 0.09,
          "band": [
            0.04,
            0.16
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Loprais",
          "name": "Milan Loprais",
          "party": "SPD+PRO (navrhl/a PRO)",
          "p": 0.0,
          "band": [
            0.0,
            0.0
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Someone_else",
          "name": "Ostatní",
          "party": "",
          "p": 0.0,
          "band": [
            0.0,
            0.0
          ]
        }
      ],
      "others_on_ballot": [
        "Petr Jančík (Ostravak)",
        "Radoslav Štědroň (Švýcarská dem.)",
        "Radek Iwoniak (ČSSD)",
        "Štefan Režný (ReMeK)"
      ],
      "ballot_size": 7,
      "status_cs": "obhájce kandiduje",
      "status_en": "incumbent running",
      "why_cs": "Ostravská bilance ANO ve 2. kolech je lepší než celostátní, ale v letech, kdy vládne, slabá. Baránková má základnu v Porubě.",
      "why_en": "ANO's Ostrava runoff record is better than nationally but weak in governing years. Baránková's base is Poruba.",
      "watch_cs": "Baránková vede o 5+ bodů → ~62 : 35; Šimetka vede o 5+ → 85–88 %.",
      "watch_en": "Baránková leads by 5+ pp → ~62–35; Šimetka leads by 5+ → 85–88 %.",
      "redteam": "none",
      "grounding": "warn",
      "contamination_risk": "none",
      "research_limitation": "WebSearch budget exhausted for researcher and red-team: no election-night endorsements, Poruba municipal result or national ≥10 pp comeback rate retrieved; only an iDNES headline 'Hnutí ANO ztratilo' (Ostrava municipal). Absence of endorsements is not evidence.",
      "independent_redteam_posthoc": false,
      "note": "2026-10-10-ostrava-mesto-senat-obvod72-2026-v2.md",
      "created": "2026-10-10"
    },
    {
      "n": 75,
      "name": "Karviná",
      "series": "karvina-senat-obvod75-2026",
      "version": 2,
      "stage": "blind",
      "leader": "Brzyszkowska",
      "leader_p": 0.72,
      "leader_band": [
        0.55,
        0.86
      ],
      "candidates": [
        {
          "key": "Brzyszkowska",
          "name": "Lenka Brzyszkowská",
          "party": "ANO",
          "p": 0.72,
          "band": [
            0.55,
            0.86
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Kazik",
          "name": "Petr Kazík",
          "party": "OK",
          "p": 0.28,
          "band": [
            0.14,
            0.45
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Polach",
          "name": "Aleš Polách",
          "party": "ODS+Soukromníci (navrhl/a ODS)",
          "p": 0.0,
          "band": [
            0.0,
            0.0
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Szyja",
          "name": "Mariam Szyja",
          "party": "ZelSTAPirTOPSEN (navrhl/a Piráti)",
          "p": 0.0,
          "band": [
            0.0,
            0.0
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Stanek",
          "name": "Pavel Staněk",
          "party": "SPD",
          "p": 0.0,
          "band": [
            0.0,
            0.0
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Someone_else",
          "name": "Ostatní",
          "party": "",
          "p": 0.0,
          "band": [
            0.0,
            0.0
          ]
        }
      ],
      "others_on_ballot": [
        "Karel Světnička (JaSaN)",
        "Roman Galia (SOCDEM)"
      ],
      "ballot_size": 7,
      "status_cs": "volné místo ANO (Feber nekandiduje)",
      "status_en": "open ANO-held seat (Feber not running)",
      "why_cs": "Jediný obvod, kde je favoritkou kandidátka ANO: silná lokální základna a rozdělená opozice. V roce 2020 rozhodlo 84 hlasů při účasti 7,7 %.",
      "why_en": "The only district with an ANO favourite: a strong local base and a split opposition. In 2020 the runoff was decided by 84 votes at 7.7 % turnout.",
      "watch_cs": "Náskok v 1. kole: 20+ bodů → 75+ %; pod 10 bodů → zhruba 50 : 50. Dohoda Polách–Szyja.",
      "watch_en": "Round-1 margin: 20+ pp → 75+ %; under 10 pp → about a coin flip. A Polách–Szyja deal.",
      "redteam": "adjustment",
      "grounding": "warn",
      "contamination_risk": "none   # no odds, STEM or CNN Prima numbers seen by any stage",
      "research_limitation": "websearch_budget_exhausted (researcher and red-team) — WebFetch only; no post-2. 10. news found: endorsements, election-night statements, Orlová municipal result, possible recount of the 50-vote Kazík–Szyja gap all unresearched (not confirmed absent); national/margin-conditional R1-leader runoff rate unaudited; MSK ANO ≥11 pp class (3/3) hand-counted from parent.",
      "independent_redteam_posthoc": false,
      "note": "2026-10-10-karvina-senat-obvod75-2026-v2.md",
      "created": "2026-10-10"
    },
    {
      "n": 78,
      "name": "Zlín",
      "series": "zlin-senat-obvod78-2026",
      "version": 2,
      "stage": "blind",
      "leader": "Golan",
      "leader_p": 0.73,
      "leader_band": [
        0.58,
        0.84
      ],
      "candidates": [
        {
          "key": "Golan",
          "name": "Tomáš Goláň",
          "party": "KDU+ODS+TOP 09 (navrhl/a ODS)",
          "p": 0.73,
          "band": [
            0.58,
            0.84
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Mitacek",
          "name": "Ivo Mitáček",
          "party": "STAN",
          "p": 0.27,
          "band": [
            0.16,
            0.42
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Sedlarik",
          "name": "Vladimír Sedlařík",
          "party": "ANO",
          "p": 0.0,
          "band": [
            0.0,
            0.0
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Someone_else",
          "name": "Ostatní",
          "party": "",
          "p": 0.0,
          "band": [
            0.0,
            0.0
          ]
        }
      ],
      "others_on_ballot": [
        "Lubomír Nečas (SPD)",
        "Jan Doleček (KSČM)",
        "Pavel Dlouhý (SEN 21)"
      ],
      "ballot_size": 6,
      "status_cs": "obhájce kandiduje",
      "status_en": "incumbent running",
      "why_cs": "Obhájce proti silnému kandidátovi ANO; primátor Korec (ANO) vede komunální kandidátku ve stejný den.",
      "why_en": "Incumbent vs. a strong ANO candidate; Mayor Korec (ANO) heads the municipal list on the same day.",
      "watch_cs": "Sedlařík před Goláněm → Goláň ~58 %.",
      "watch_en": "Sedlařík ahead of Goláň → Goláň ~58 %.",
      "redteam": null,
      "grounding": "pass",
      "contamination_risk": "none",
      "research_limitation": "WebSearch budget exhausted (researcher and red-team) → WebFetch + Google News RSS titles only; iDNES blocked; no election-night statements/endorsements found = absence of evidence; transfer directions of ANO/SPD/SEN 21 voters are assumptions; ODS-vs-STAN runoff reference class not audited.",
      "independent_redteam_posthoc": false,
      "note": "2026-10-10-zlin-senat-obvod78-2026-v2.md",
      "created": "2026-10-10"
    },
    {
      "n": 81,
      "name": "Uherské Hradiště",
      "series": "uherske-hradiste-senat-obvod81-2026",
      "version": 2,
      "stage": "blind",
      "leader": "Bazala",
      "leader_p": 0.94,
      "leader_band": [
        0.88,
        0.97
      ],
      "candidates": [
        {
          "key": "Bazala",
          "name": "Josef Bazala",
          "party": "KDU-ČSL",
          "p": 0.94,
          "band": [
            0.88,
            0.97
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Vasica",
          "name": "Jiří Vašica",
          "party": "ANO",
          "p": 0.06,
          "band": [
            0.03,
            0.12
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Balastikova",
          "name": "Margita Balaštíková",
          "party": "HOČ",
          "p": 0.0,
          "band": [
            0.0,
            0.0
          ]
        },
        {
          "key": "Someone_else",
          "name": "Ostatní",
          "party": "",
          "p": 0.0,
          "band": [
            0.0,
            0.0
          ]
        }
      ],
      "others_on_ballot": [
        "Otakar Březina (SD-SN)",
        "Kristýna Zelienková (ZVUK 12)",
        "David Skyba (SPD)"
      ],
      "ballot_size": 6,
      "status_cs": "obhájce kandiduje",
      "status_en": "incumbent running",
      "why_cs": "Obhájce v baště KDU-ČSL proti nováčkovi za ANO; bývalá poslankyně ANO Balaštíková kandiduje za jinou stranu.",
      "why_en": "Incumbent in a KDU-ČSL stronghold vs. an ANO newcomer; former ANO MP Balaštíková runs for another party.",
      "watch_cs": "Je-li Vašica do 5 bodů za Bazalou, 2. kolo se zúží na ~65–70 %.",
      "watch_en": "If Vašica is within 5 pp of Bazala, the runoff tightens to ~65–70 %.",
      "redteam": null,
      "grounding": "warn       # 0 material; label fixes applied (national 3/4 rate = unaudited assumption; ANO-in-government and Staré Město from parent note)",
      "contamination_risk": "none   # no odds/STEM/CNN Prima pages or snippets seen; runs/.../01-research.market-quarantine.md = none; polls-news file only grepped for obvod 81 (no hits)",
      "research_limitation": "websearch_budget_exhausted   # researcher + red-team: session WebSearch budget used up; no endorsements / election-night statements / municipality geography found (gap, not absence); volby.gov.cz down",
      "independent_redteam_posthoc": false,
      "note": "2026-10-10-uherske-hradiste-senat-obvod81-2026-v2.md",
      "created": "2026-10-10"
    }
  ]
}