{
  "experiment": "senat-2026",
  "series": "statistical-model-r2",
  "date": "2026-10-11",
  "results_file": "r1-2026-10-11-0801.json",
  "coefficients": {
    "runoff_beta": {
      "margin": 0.6781475112951243,
      "reservoir": 0.3430338645340152,
      "gov": -3.693721875887158,
      "ano": -3.4887733647431203
    },
    "runoff_sd": 5.585950797756139,
    "calib_exp": 0.55
  },
  "districts": [
    {
      "n": 3,
      "decided_r1": false,
      "exp_share_A": 66.0,
      "candidates": [
        {
          "name": "Miroslav Plevný",
          "list": "STAN",
          "p": 0.9646,
          "r1": 40.08
        },
        {
          "name": "Sandra Tsoukernik",
          "list": "ANO",
          "p": 0.0354,
          "r1": 27.08
        },
        {
          "name": "Štěpánka Černá",
          "list": "VOK",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 12.3
        },
        {
          "name": "Vladimír Keblúšek",
          "list": "NČ",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 10.61
        },
        {
          "name": "Ivan Reis",
          "list": "SPD",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 6.41
        },
        {
          "name": "Pavel Hojda",
          "list": "KSČM",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 3.49
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "n": 6,
      "decided_r1": false,
      "exp_share_A": 71.6,
      "candidates": [
        {
          "name": "Ivo Trešl",
          "list": "STAN",
          "p": 0.9683,
          "r1": 43.5
        },
        {
          "name": "Jaroslav Mikoláš",
          "list": "ANO",
          "p": 0.0317,
          "r1": 25.55
        },
        {
          "name": "Vladislav Hrbáček",
          "list": "SPD",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 10.92
        },
        {
          "name": "Leo Steiner",
          "list": "JsmePRO!",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 10.1
        },
        {
          "name": "Ivana Hluštíková",
          "list": "Zelení+Piráti",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 6.46
        },
        {
          "name": "Jiří Kobza",
          "list": "Stačilo!",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 3.43
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "n": 9,
      "decided_r1": false,
      "exp_share_A": 68.9,
      "candidates": [
        {
          "name": "Karel Řehka",
          "list": "STAN",
          "p": 0.9683,
          "r1": 32.86
        },
        {
          "name": "Lucie Kantorová",
          "list": "ANO",
          "p": 0.0317,
          "r1": 27.26
        },
        {
          "name": "Lumír Aschenbrenner",
          "list": "ODS+KoruČes+TOP",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 20.1
        },
        {
          "name": "Daniela Pousková",
          "list": "PRO PLZEŇ",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 7.92
        },
        {
          "name": "Július Líška",
          "list": "SPD",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 4.8
        },
        {
          "name": "Jiří Valenta",
          "list": "KSČM",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 3.07
        },
        {
          "name": "Bohumír Janský",
          "list": "SEN 21",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 2.88
        },
        {
          "name": "Jaroslav Novák",
          "list": "JaSaN",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 1.07
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "n": 12,
      "decided_r1": true,
      "exp_share_A": null,
      "candidates": [
        {
          "name": "Tomáš Fiala",
          "list": "NČ",
          "p": 1.0,
          "r1": 55.41
        },
        {
          "name": "Miroslav Ušatý",
          "list": "Svob+SPD+Trikol",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 23.9
        },
        {
          "name": "Jana Hrdinová",
          "list": "KDU-ČSL",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 20.67
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "n": 15,
      "decided_r1": false,
      "exp_share_A": 59.4,
      "candidates": [
        {
          "name": "Ladislav Med",
          "list": "KDUODSSTANTOPST",
          "p": 0.8441,
          "r1": 30.48
        },
        {
          "name": "Michal Kozár",
          "list": "ANO",
          "p": 0.1559,
          "r1": 27.15
        },
        {
          "name": "Jaroslav Chalupský",
          "list": "HSR",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 25.11
        },
        {
          "name": "Karolína Kubisková",
          "list": "VÝZVA",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 8.65
        },
        {
          "name": "Lucie Pavlů Řádová",
          "list": "SPD",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 5.69
        },
        {
          "name": "Pavel Hodáč",
          "list": "KSČM",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 2.88
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "n": 18,
      "decided_r1": false,
      "exp_share_A": 73.9,
      "candidates": [
        {
          "name": "Petr Štěpánek",
          "list": "STAN",
          "p": 0.9683,
          "r1": 43.7
        },
        {
          "name": "Barbora Daňhová",
          "list": "ANO",
          "p": 0.0317,
          "r1": 25.21
        },
        {
          "name": "Simona Luftová",
          "list": "Zelení+Piráti",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 12.07
        },
        {
          "name": "Josef Šorna",
          "list": "SPD+PRO",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 9.4
        },
        {
          "name": "Frank Thomas Podstatzky-Lichtenstein",
          "list": "ČZS",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 5.82
        },
        {
          "name": "Pavel Vermach",
          "list": "SMS",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 3.77
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "n": 21,
      "decided_r1": false,
      "exp_share_A": 53.7,
      "candidates": [
        {
          "name": "Václav Láska",
          "list": "SEN 21",
          "p": 0.6448,
          "r1": 32.54
        },
        {
          "name": "Radko Sáblík",
          "list": "KDUČSL+ODS+STAN",
          "p": 0.3552,
          "r1": 27.1
        },
        {
          "name": "Zdeněk Šarapatka",
          "list": "Piráti+TOP+LES",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 19.75
        },
        {
          "name": "Lubomír Brož",
          "list": "ANO",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 13.43
        },
        {
          "name": "Pavel Spirov",
          "list": "SPD",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 4.64
        },
        {
          "name": "Petra Prokšanová",
          "list": "KSČM",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 1.58
        },
        {
          "name": "Ľubomír Augustín",
          "list": "PŘÍSAHA",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 0.93
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "n": 24,
      "decided_r1": false,
      "exp_share_A": 67.5,
      "candidates": [
        {
          "name": "David Smoljak",
          "list": "KDUZelSTANPiTOP",
          "p": 0.9682,
          "r1": 48.92
        },
        {
          "name": "Dagmar Pecková",
          "list": "ODS",
          "p": 0.0318,
          "r1": 23.06
        },
        {
          "name": "Radek Žalud",
          "list": "ANO",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 14.7
        },
        {
          "name": "Bedřich Laube",
          "list": "Svo+SPD+Tri+PRO",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 8.09
        },
        {
          "name": "Darina Batyiová",
          "list": "Kruh",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 5.21
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "n": 27,
      "decided_r1": false,
      "exp_share_A": 64.9,
      "candidates": [
        {
          "name": "Jiří Padevět",
          "list": "ODSSTANPirátTOP",
          "p": 0.9544,
          "r1": 49.64
        },
        {
          "name": "Jan Čižinský",
          "list": "KDU+Zel+PHASOBĚ",
          "p": 0.0456,
          "r1": 27.74
        },
        {
          "name": "Ján Dudra",
          "list": "ANO",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 12.22
        },
        {
          "name": "Pavel Čižinský",
          "list": "Levice",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 2.9
        },
        {
          "name": "Jiří Pavel Pešek",
          "list": "Švýcarská dem.",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 2.62
        },
        {
          "name": "Jiří Morštadt",
          "list": "Generace",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 1.68
        },
        {
          "name": "Vojtěch Ryvola",
          "list": "GEN",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 1.38
        },
        {
          "name": "Jan Štern",
          "list": "TEAM",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 0.98
        },
        {
          "name": "Vladimír Kolman",
          "list": "SOCDEM",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 0.8
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "n": 30,
      "decided_r1": false,
      "exp_share_A": 50.9,
      "candidates": [
        {
          "name": "Adéla Sucharda Šípová",
          "list": "ZelSTAPirTOPSEN",
          "p": 0.5396,
          "r1": 30.8
        },
        {
          "name": "Petr Paták",
          "list": "ODS",
          "p": 0.4604,
          "r1": 29.44
        },
        {
          "name": "Aleš Gerloch",
          "list": "ANO",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 22.16
        },
        {
          "name": "Jan Klas",
          "list": "NČ",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 8.1
        },
        {
          "name": "Marcela Machalová",
          "list": "SPD",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 6.14
        },
        {
          "name": "Jaroslav Pelc",
          "list": "PŘÍSAHA",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 3.34
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "n": 33,
      "decided_r1": true,
      "exp_share_A": null,
      "candidates": [
        {
          "name": "Zbyněk Linhart",
          "list": "STAN+SLK",
          "p": 1.0,
          "r1": 52.22
        },
        {
          "name": "Michal Hejcman",
          "list": "ANO",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 20.13
        },
        {
          "name": "Anna Lehká",
          "list": "MÍSTNÍ HNHRM",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 10.45
        },
        {
          "name": "Jan Skalický",
          "list": "PRO",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 10.35
        },
        {
          "name": "Miroslav Štross",
          "list": "Zelen+Pirát+SEN",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 6.83
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "n": 36,
      "decided_r1": false,
      "exp_share_A": 44.4,
      "candidates": [
        {
          "name": "Jitka Volfová",
          "list": "ANO",
          "p": 0.2813,
          "r1": 35.05
        },
        {
          "name": "Martin Půta",
          "list": "SLK",
          "p": 0.7187,
          "r1": 32.66
        },
        {
          "name": "Jiří Vosecký",
          "list": "NK",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 14.94
        },
        {
          "name": "Vít Vomáčka",
          "list": "ODS",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 13.37
        },
        {
          "name": "Leoš Hamrský",
          "list": "KSČM",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 3.95
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "n": 39,
      "decided_r1": true,
      "exp_share_A": null,
      "candidates": [
        {
          "name": "Jan Sobotka",
          "list": "STAN",
          "p": 1.0,
          "r1": 58.42
        },
        {
          "name": "Zuzana Chovancová",
          "list": "ANO",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 28.61
        },
        {
          "name": "Radek Mráz",
          "list": "SPD",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 7.31
        },
        {
          "name": "Hynek Beran",
          "list": "PRO",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 5.63
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "n": 42,
      "decided_r1": false,
      "exp_share_A": 76.5,
      "candidates": [
        {
          "name": "Michael Kašpar",
          "list": "STAN",
          "p": 0.9683,
          "r1": 45.26
        },
        {
          "name": "Andrea Brzobohatá",
          "list": "ANO",
          "p": 0.0317,
          "r1": 25.54
        },
        {
          "name": "Roman Schulz",
          "list": "ODS+TOP 09",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 17.25
        },
        {
          "name": "Antonín Dušek",
          "list": "SPD",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 4.19
        },
        {
          "name": "Pavel Sehnal",
          "list": "APB",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 4.14
        },
        {
          "name": "Jiří Rynekr",
          "list": "KSČM",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 2.34
        },
        {
          "name": "František Třeštik",
          "list": "JaSaN",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 1.24
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "n": 45,
      "decided_r1": false,
      "exp_share_A": 52.2,
      "candidates": [
        {
          "name": "Martin Dvořák",
          "list": "ZelSTANPiTOPHDK",
          "p": 0.5848,
          "r1": 25.13
        },
        {
          "name": "Zuzana Ceralová Petrofová",
          "list": "ODS",
          "p": 0.4152,
          "r1": 21.94
        },
        {
          "name": "Jana Hůlková",
          "list": "ANO",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 18.4
        },
        {
          "name": "Monika Nebeská",
          "list": "NK",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 14.99
        },
        {
          "name": "Jan Holásek",
          "list": "VPM+HP+MY+RH+NČ",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 12.18
        },
        {
          "name": "Ivan Picek",
          "list": "SPD",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 5.33
        },
        {
          "name": "Vladimír Dryml",
          "list": "ČSSD",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 2.01
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "n": 48,
      "decided_r1": true,
      "exp_share_A": null,
      "candidates": [
        {
          "name": "Jan Grulich",
          "list": "KDUODSSTPTOPLES",
          "p": 1.0,
          "r1": 62.19
        },
        {
          "name": "Petr Sadovský",
          "list": "ANO",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 37.8
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "n": 51,
      "decided_r1": false,
      "exp_share_A": 42.6,
      "candidates": [
        {
          "name": "Michal Šmarda",
          "list": "SOM+Volt+HR",
          "p": 0.2169,
          "r1": 27.6
        },
        {
          "name": "Josef Klement",
          "list": "KDU-ČSL",
          "p": 0.7831,
          "r1": 25.62
        },
        {
          "name": "Radek Černý",
          "list": "ODS+Piráti+STO",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 25.62
        },
        {
          "name": "Radek Koten",
          "list": "SPD",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 16.49
        },
        {
          "name": "David Moos",
          "list": "SD-SN",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 4.65
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "n": 54,
      "decided_r1": false,
      "exp_share_A": 66.2,
      "candidates": [
        {
          "name": "Tomáš Třetina",
          "list": "KDUODSSTANPiTOP",
          "p": 0.9682,
          "r1": 35.55
        },
        {
          "name": "Jiří Kyněra",
          "list": "ANO",
          "p": 0.0318,
          "r1": 22.28
        },
        {
          "name": "Jindřich Růžička",
          "list": "NK",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 18.67
        },
        {
          "name": "Petra Rédová Fajmonová",
          "list": "Stačilo!",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 11.78
        },
        {
          "name": "Bohumila Beranová",
          "list": "HR",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 6.65
        },
        {
          "name": "Pavel Černý",
          "list": "PŘÍSAHA",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 5.04
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "n": 57,
      "decided_r1": true,
      "exp_share_A": null,
      "candidates": [
        {
          "name": "Jan Grolich",
          "list": "KDU-ČSL",
          "p": 1.0,
          "r1": 63.34
        },
        {
          "name": "Petra Absolonová",
          "list": "ANO",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 29.99
        },
        {
          "name": "Jaroslav Fládr",
          "list": "PŘÍSAHA",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 6.66
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "n": 60,
      "decided_r1": false,
      "exp_share_A": 62.0,
      "candidates": [
        {
          "name": "Zdeněk Papoušek",
          "list": "KDUODSPirTOPFBr",
          "p": 0.9076,
          "r1": 42.08
        },
        {
          "name": "Karel Zitterbart",
          "list": "STAN",
          "p": 0.0924,
          "r1": 24.45
        },
        {
          "name": "Jaroslav Štěrba",
          "list": "ANO",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 20.12
        },
        {
          "name": "Jaroslav Turánek",
          "list": "SPD",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 6.27
        },
        {
          "name": "Veronika Holcnerová",
          "list": "Kruh",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 4.11
        },
        {
          "name": "Klára Alžběta Samková",
          "list": "Stačilo!",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 2.94
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "n": 63,
      "decided_r1": false,
      "exp_share_A": 57.8,
      "candidates": [
        {
          "name": "Jakub Navařík",
          "list": "KDU+ODS+STA+TOP",
          "p": 0.7929,
          "r1": 38.54
        },
        {
          "name": "Petr Vrána",
          "list": "ANO",
          "p": 0.2071,
          "r1": 37.62
        },
        {
          "name": "Marek Obrtel",
          "list": "ČSNS",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 15.04
        },
        {
          "name": "Dan Chromec",
          "list": "SPD",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 8.78
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "n": 66,
      "decided_r1": false,
      "exp_share_A": 59.5,
      "candidates": [
        {
          "name": "Marek Ošťádal",
          "list": "24/7",
          "p": 0.8401,
          "r1": 32.17
        },
        {
          "name": "Martin Škurek",
          "list": "ANO",
          "p": 0.1599,
          "r1": 28.78
        },
        {
          "name": "Michael Kohajda",
          "list": "KDU-ČSL",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 28.44
        },
        {
          "name": "Pavel Jelínek",
          "list": "SPD",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 9.37
        },
        {
          "name": "Zdeněk Beil",
          "list": "Levice",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 1.21
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "n": 69,
      "decided_r1": false,
      "exp_share_A": 51.5,
      "candidates": [
        {
          "name": "Helena Pešatová",
          "list": "STAN+Piráti+TOP",
          "p": 0.5563,
          "r1": 34.75
        },
        {
          "name": "Petr Korč",
          "list": "NMFM",
          "p": 0.4437,
          "r1": 32.47
        },
        {
          "name": "Tomáš Krpel",
          "list": "SPD",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 13.01
        },
        {
          "name": "Zdeněk Navrátil",
          "list": "Evo",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 9.53
        },
        {
          "name": "Nela Lisková",
          "list": "NEZLOMNÍ",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 4.89
        },
        {
          "name": "René Hompora",
          "list": "Švýcarská dem.",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 3.07
        },
        {
          "name": "Petr Hrnčárek",
          "list": "KSČM",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 2.26
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "n": 72,
      "decided_r1": false,
      "exp_share_A": 68.1,
      "candidates": [
        {
          "name": "Ondřej Šimetka",
          "list": "KDUODSSTANPiTOP",
          "p": 0.9682,
          "r1": 46.74
        },
        {
          "name": "Lucie Baránková Vilamová",
          "list": "ANO",
          "p": 0.0318,
          "r1": 30.61
        },
        {
          "name": "Milan Loprais",
          "list": "SPD+PRO",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 12.75
        },
        {
          "name": "Petr Jančík",
          "list": "Ostravak",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 6.22
        },
        {
          "name": "Štefan Režný",
          "list": "ReMeK",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 1.87
        },
        {
          "name": "Radoslav Štědroň",
          "list": "Švýcarská dem.",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 1.16
        },
        {
          "name": "Radek Iwoniak",
          "list": "ČSSD",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 0.61
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "n": 75,
      "decided_r1": false,
      "exp_share_A": 55.9,
      "candidates": [
        {
          "name": "Lenka Brzyszkowská",
          "list": "ANO",
          "p": 0.7267,
          "r1": 33.62
        },
        {
          "name": "Petr Kazík",
          "list": "OK",
          "p": 0.2733,
          "r1": 14.31
        },
        {
          "name": "Mariam Szyja",
          "list": "ZelSTAPirTOPSEN",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 14.1
        },
        {
          "name": "Aleš Polách",
          "list": "ODS+Soukromníci",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 13.92
        },
        {
          "name": "Pavel Staněk",
          "list": "SPD",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 12.43
        },
        {
          "name": "Roman Galia",
          "list": "SOCDEM",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 9.1
        },
        {
          "name": "Karel Světnička",
          "list": "JaSaN",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 2.48
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "n": 78,
      "decided_r1": false,
      "exp_share_A": 57.3,
      "candidates": [
        {
          "name": "Tomáš Goláň",
          "list": "KDU+ODS+TOP 09",
          "p": 0.7732,
          "r1": 33.54
        },
        {
          "name": "Ivo Mitáček",
          "list": "STAN",
          "p": 0.2268,
          "r1": 22.83
        },
        {
          "name": "Vladimír Sedlařík",
          "list": "ANO",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 18.87
        },
        {
          "name": "Pavel Dlouhý",
          "list": "SEN 21",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 12.16
        },
        {
          "name": "Lubomír Nečas",
          "list": "SPD",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 10.7
        },
        {
          "name": "Jan Doleček",
          "list": "KSČM",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 1.86
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "n": 81,
      "decided_r1": false,
      "exp_share_A": 70.4,
      "candidates": [
        {
          "name": "Josef Bazala",
          "list": "KDU-ČSL",
          "p": 0.9683,
          "r1": 47.81
        },
        {
          "name": "Jiří Vašica",
          "list": "ANO",
          "p": 0.0317,
          "r1": 28.34
        },
        {
          "name": "Kristýna Zelienková",
          "list": "ZVUK 12",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 9.4
        },
        {
          "name": "Otakar Březina",
          "list": "SD-SN",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 7.12
        },
        {
          "name": "David Skyba",
          "list": "SPD",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 4.08
        },
        {
          "name": "Margita Balaštíková",
          "list": "HOČ",
          "p": 0.0,
          "r1": 3.22
        }
      ]
    }
  ]
}