{
  "experiment": "senat-2026",
  "series": "market",
  "date": "2026-10-13",
  "round": 2,
  "method": "Round 2: Fortuna + Tipsport head-to-head ('who gets more votes'), power de-vig per book, 1.01 kept as floor, locked book skipped, consensus = mean of available books; mapped to AI keys",
  "districts": [
    {
      "n": 3,
      "fortuna": {
        "Plevny": 0.9701,
        "Tsoukernik": 0.0299
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "Plevny": 0.9855,
        "Tsoukernik": 0.0145
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Tsoukernik": 0.0222,
        "Plevny": 0.9778,
        "Cerna": 0.0,
        "Someone_else": 0.0
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 8 %; Tipsport margin 5 %",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 8 %; Tipsport marže 5 %"
    },
    {
      "n": 6,
      "fortuna": {
        "Tresl": 0.9847,
        "Mikolas": 0.0153
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "Tresl": 0.9847,
        "Mikolas": 0.0153
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Mikolas": 0.0153,
        "Tresl": 0.9847,
        "Steiner": 0.0,
        "Someone_else": 0.0
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 6 %; Tipsport margin 6 %",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 6 %; Tipsport marže 6 %"
    },
    {
      "n": 9,
      "fortuna": {
        "Rehka": 0.9859,
        "Kantorova": 0.0141
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "Rehka": 0.9863,
        "Kantorova": 0.0137
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Kantorova": 0.0139,
        "Rehka": 0.9861,
        "Aschenbrenner": 0.0,
        "Pouskova": 0.0,
        "Someone_else": 0.0
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 4 %; Tipsport margin 4 %",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 4 %; Tipsport marže 4 %"
    },
    {
      "n": 15,
      "fortuna": {
        "Med": 0.9366,
        "Kozar": 0.0634
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "Med": 0.9355,
        "Kozar": 0.0645
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Med": 0.936,
        "Kozar": 0.064,
        "Chalupsky": 0.0,
        "PavluRadova": 0.0,
        "Someone_else": 0.0
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 8 %; Tipsport margin 9 %",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 8 %; Tipsport marže 9 %"
    },
    {
      "n": 18,
      "tipsport": {
        "Stepanek": 0.9859,
        "Danhova": 0.0141
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Stepanek": 0.9859,
        "Danhova": 0.0141,
        "Luftova": 0.0,
        "Sorna": 0.0,
        "Someone_else": 0.0
      },
      "note": "Fortuna locked (skipped); Tipsport margin 4 %",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna uzamčeno (vynecháno); Tipsport marže 4 %"
    },
    {
      "n": 21,
      "fortuna": {
        "Laska": 0.7832,
        "Sablik": 0.2168
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "Laska": 0.7692,
        "Sablik": 0.2308
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Sablik": 0.2238,
        "Laska": 0.7762,
        "Sarapatka": 0.0,
        "Broz": 0.0,
        "Someone_else": 0.0
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 9 %; Tipsport margin 9 %",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 9 %; Tipsport marže 9 %"
    },
    {
      "n": 24,
      "fortuna": {
        "Smoljak": 0.9847,
        "Peckova": 0.0153
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "Smoljak": 0.9837,
        "Peckova": 0.0163
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Smoljak": 0.9842,
        "Peckova": 0.0158,
        "Zalud": 0.0,
        "Laube": 0.0,
        "Someone_else": 0.0
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 6 %; Tipsport margin 7 %",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 6 %; Tipsport marže 7 %"
    },
    {
      "n": 27,
      "consensus": null,
      "note": "Fortuna locked (skipped); Tipsport locked (skipped)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna uzamčeno (vynecháno); Tipsport uzamčeno (vynecháno)"
    },
    {
      "n": 30,
      "fortuna": {
        "Sipova": 0.4312,
        "Patak": 0.5688
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "Sipova": 0.4345,
        "Patak": 0.5655
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Patak": 0.5672,
        "Sipova": 0.4328,
        "Gerloch": 0.0,
        "Someone_else": 0.0
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 8 %; Tipsport margin 9 %",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 8 %; Tipsport marže 9 %"
    },
    {
      "n": 36,
      "fortuna": {
        "Puta": 0.9064,
        "Volfova": 0.0936
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "Puta": 0.896,
        "Volfova": 0.104
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Puta": 0.9012,
        "Volfova": 0.0988,
        "Vosecky": 0.0,
        "Vomacka": 0.0,
        "Someone_else": 0.0
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 8 %; Tipsport margin 9 %",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 8 %; Tipsport marže 9 %"
    },
    {
      "n": 42,
      "consensus": null,
      "note": "Fortuna locked (skipped); Tipsport locked (skipped)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna uzamčeno (vynecháno); Tipsport uzamčeno (vynecháno)"
    },
    {
      "n": 45,
      "fortuna": {
        "Dvorak": 0.6087,
        "Ceralova_Petrofova": 0.3913
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "Dvorak": 0.5848,
        "Ceralova_Petrofova": 0.4152
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Dvorak": 0.5968,
        "Ceralova_Petrofova": 0.4032,
        "Holasek": 0.0,
        "Hulkova": 0.0,
        "Someone_else": 0.0
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 8 %; Tipsport margin 9 %",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 8 %; Tipsport marže 9 %"
    },
    {
      "n": 51,
      "fortuna": {
        "Klement": 0.6061,
        "Smarda": 0.3939
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "Klement": 0.6533,
        "Smarda": 0.3467
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Klement": 0.6297,
        "Smarda": 0.3703,
        "Cerny": 0.0,
        "Koten": 0.0,
        "Someone_else": 0.0
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 9 %; Tipsport margin 9 %",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 9 %; Tipsport marže 9 %"
    },
    {
      "n": 54,
      "fortuna": {
        "Tretina": 0.9847,
        "Kynera": 0.0153
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "Tretina": 0.9696,
        "Kynera": 0.0304
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Tretina": 0.9772,
        "Kynera": 0.0228,
        "Beranova": 0.0,
        "RedovaFajmonova": 0.0,
        "Ruzicka": 0.0,
        "Cerny": 0.0,
        "Someone_else": 0.0
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 6 %; Tipsport margin 9 %",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 6 %; Tipsport marže 9 %"
    },
    {
      "n": 60,
      "fortuna": {
        "Papousek": 0.9701,
        "Zitterbart": 0.0299
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "Papousek": 0.9702,
        "Zitterbart": 0.0298
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Papousek": 0.9702,
        "Zitterbart": 0.0298,
        "Sterba": 0.0,
        "Someone_else": 0.0
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 8 %; Tipsport margin 8 %",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 8 %; Tipsport marže 8 %"
    },
    {
      "n": 63,
      "fortuna": {
        "Navarik": 0.6533,
        "Vrana": 0.3467
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "Navarik": 0.6533,
        "Vrana": 0.3467
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Navarik": 0.6533,
        "Vrana": 0.3467,
        "Chromec": 0.0,
        "Obrtel": 0.0,
        "Someone_else": 0.0
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 9 %; Tipsport margin 9 %",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 9 %; Tipsport marže 9 %"
    },
    {
      "n": 66,
      "fortuna": {
        "Ostadal": 0.9583,
        "Skurek": 0.0417
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "Ostadal": 0.9702,
        "Skurek": 0.0298
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Skurek": 0.0357,
        "Ostadal": 0.9643,
        "Kohajda": 0.0,
        "Jelinek": 0.0,
        "Someone_else": 0.0
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 8 %; Tipsport margin 8 %",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 8 %; Tipsport marže 8 %"
    },
    {
      "n": 69,
      "fortuna": {
        "Pesatova": 0.5848,
        "Korc": 0.4152
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "Pesatova": 0.5848,
        "Korc": 0.4152
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Korc": 0.4152,
        "Pesatova": 0.5848,
        "Krpel": 0.0,
        "Someone_else": 0.0
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 9 %; Tipsport margin 9 %",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 9 %; Tipsport marže 9 %"
    },
    {
      "n": 72,
      "fortuna": {
        "Simetka": 0.9847,
        "Barankova_Vilamova": 0.0153
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "Simetka": 0.9841,
        "Barankova_Vilamova": 0.0159
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Barankova_Vilamova": 0.0156,
        "Simetka": 0.9844,
        "Loprais": 0.0,
        "Someone_else": 0.0
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 6 %; Tipsport margin 7 %",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 6 %; Tipsport marže 7 %"
    },
    {
      "n": 75,
      "fortuna": {
        "Brzyszkowska": 0.8221,
        "Kazik": 0.1779
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "Brzyszkowska": 0.8048,
        "Kazik": 0.1952
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Kazik": 0.1866,
        "Brzyszkowska": 0.8134,
        "Polach": 0.0,
        "Szyja": 0.0,
        "Stanek": 0.0,
        "Someone_else": 0.0
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 8 %; Tipsport margin 9 %",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 8 %; Tipsport marže 9 %"
    },
    {
      "n": 78,
      "fortuna": {
        "Golan": 0.8204,
        "Mitacek": 0.1796
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "Golan": 0.7832,
        "Mitacek": 0.2168
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Mitacek": 0.1982,
        "Golan": 0.8018,
        "Sedlarik": 0.0,
        "Someone_else": 0.0
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 9 %; Tipsport margin 9 %",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 9 %; Tipsport marže 9 %"
    },
    {
      "n": 81,
      "tipsport": {
        "Bazala": 0.9855,
        "Vasica": 0.0145
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Vasica": 0.0145,
        "Bazala": 0.9855,
        "Balastikova": 0.0,
        "Someone_else": 0.0
      },
      "note": "Fortuna locked (skipped); Tipsport margin 5 %",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna uzamčeno (vynecháno); Tipsport marže 5 %"
    }
  ]
}