{
  "experiment": "senat-2026",
  "series": "market",
  "date": "2026-10-16",
  "round": 2,
  "method": "Round 2: Fortuna + Tipsport head-to-head ('who gets more votes'), power de-vig per book, 1.01 kept as floor, locked book skipped, consensus = mean of available books; mapped to AI keys",
  "districts": [
    {
      "n": 3,
      "fortuna": {
        "Plevny": 0.9847,
        "Tsoukernik": 0.0153
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "Plevny": 0.9863,
        "Tsoukernik": 0.0137
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Tsoukernik": 0.0145,
        "Plevny": 0.9855,
        "Cerna": 0.0,
        "Someone_else": 0.0
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 6 %; Tipsport margin 4 %",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 6 %; Tipsport marže 4 %"
    },
    {
      "n": 6,
      "tipsport": {
        "Tresl": 0.9863,
        "Mikolas": 0.0137
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Tresl": 0.9863,
        "Mikolas": 0.0137,
        "Steiner": 0.0,
        "Someone_else": 0.0
      },
      "note": "Fortuna locked (skipped); Tipsport margin 4 %",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna uzamčeno (vynecháno); Tipsport marže 4 %"
    },
    {
      "n": 9,
      "fortuna": {
        "Rehka": 0.9859,
        "Kantorova": 0.0141
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "Rehka": 0.9863,
        "Kantorova": 0.0137
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Rehka": 0.9861,
        "Kantorova": 0.0139,
        "Aschenbrenner": 0.0,
        "Pouskova": 0.0,
        "Someone_else": 0.0
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 4 %; Tipsport margin 4 %",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 4 %; Tipsport marže 4 %"
    },
    {
      "n": 15,
      "fortuna": {
        "Med": 0.9064,
        "Kozar": 0.0936
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "Med": 0.9054,
        "Kozar": 0.0946
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Med": 0.9059,
        "Kozar": 0.0941,
        "Chalupsky": 0.0,
        "PavluRadova": 0.0,
        "Someone_else": 0.0
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 8 %; Tipsport margin 9 %",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 8 %; Tipsport marže 9 %"
    },
    {
      "n": 18,
      "tipsport": {
        "Stepanek": 0.9863,
        "Danhova": 0.0137
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Stepanek": 0.9863,
        "Danhova": 0.0137,
        "Luftova": 0.0,
        "Sorna": 0.0,
        "Someone_else": 0.0
      },
      "note": "Fortuna locked (skipped); Tipsport margin 4 %",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna uzamčeno (vynecháno); Tipsport marže 4 %"
    },
    {
      "n": 21,
      "fortuna": {
        "Laska": 0.7698,
        "Sablik": 0.2302
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "Laska": 0.7763,
        "Sablik": 0.2237
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Laska": 0.7731,
        "Sablik": 0.2269,
        "Sarapatka": 0.0,
        "Broz": 0.0,
        "Someone_else": 0.0
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 9 %; Tipsport margin 9 %",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 9 %; Tipsport marže 9 %"
    },
    {
      "n": 24,
      "fortuna": {
        "Smoljak": 0.985,
        "Peckova": 0.015
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "Smoljak": 0.9841,
        "Peckova": 0.0159
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Smoljak": 0.9846,
        "Peckova": 0.0154,
        "Zalud": 0.0,
        "Laube": 0.0,
        "Someone_else": 0.0
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 5 %; Tipsport margin 7 %",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 5 %; Tipsport marže 7 %"
    },
    {
      "n": 27,
      "consensus": null,
      "note": "Fortuna locked (skipped); Tipsport locked (skipped)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna uzamčeno (vynecháno); Tipsport uzamčeno (vynecháno)"
    },
    {
      "n": 30,
      "fortuna": {
        "Sipova": 0.4122,
        "Patak": 0.5878
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "Sipova": 0.4345,
        "Patak": 0.5655
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Sipova": 0.4233,
        "Patak": 0.5767,
        "Gerloch": 0.0,
        "Someone_else": 0.0
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 8 %; Tipsport margin 9 %",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 8 %; Tipsport marže 9 %"
    },
    {
      "n": 36,
      "fortuna": {
        "Puta": 0.9064,
        "Volfova": 0.0936
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "Puta": 0.9252,
        "Volfova": 0.0748
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Volfova": 0.0842,
        "Puta": 0.9158,
        "Vosecky": 0.0,
        "Vomacka": 0.0,
        "Someone_else": 0.0
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 8 %; Tipsport margin 9 %",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 8 %; Tipsport marže 9 %"
    },
    {
      "n": 42,
      "consensus": null,
      "note": "Fortuna locked (skipped); Tipsport locked (skipped)",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna uzamčeno (vynecháno); Tipsport uzamčeno (vynecháno)"
    },
    {
      "n": 45,
      "fortuna": {
        "Dvorak": 0.4848,
        "Ceralova_Petrofova": 0.5152
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "Dvorak": 0.5,
        "Ceralova_Petrofova": 0.5
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Ceralova_Petrofova": 0.5076,
        "Dvorak": 0.4924,
        "Holasek": 0.0,
        "Hulkova": 0.0,
        "Someone_else": 0.0
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 8 %; Tipsport margin 9 %",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 8 %; Tipsport marže 9 %"
    },
    {
      "n": 51,
      "fortuna": {
        "Klement": 0.7369,
        "Smarda": 0.2631
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "Klement": 0.8048,
        "Smarda": 0.1952
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Klement": 0.7708,
        "Smarda": 0.2292,
        "Cerny": 0.0,
        "Koten": 0.0,
        "Someone_else": 0.0
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 9 %; Tipsport margin 9 %",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 9 %; Tipsport marže 9 %"
    },
    {
      "n": 54,
      "fortuna": {
        "Tretina": 0.9847,
        "Kynera": 0.0153
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "Tretina": 0.9696,
        "Kynera": 0.0304
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Kynera": 0.0228,
        "Tretina": 0.9772,
        "Beranova": 0.0,
        "RedovaFajmonova": 0.0,
        "Ruzicka": 0.0,
        "Cerny": 0.0,
        "Someone_else": 0.0
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 6 %; Tipsport margin 9 %",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 6 %; Tipsport marže 9 %"
    },
    {
      "n": 60,
      "fortuna": {
        "Papousek": 0.9701,
        "Zitterbart": 0.0299
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "Papousek": 0.9702,
        "Zitterbart": 0.0298
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Zitterbart": 0.0298,
        "Papousek": 0.9702,
        "Sterba": 0.0,
        "Someone_else": 0.0
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 8 %; Tipsport margin 8 %",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 8 %; Tipsport marže 8 %"
    },
    {
      "n": 63,
      "fortuna": {
        "Navarik": 0.6682,
        "Vrana": 0.3318
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "Navarik": 0.6061,
        "Vrana": 0.3939
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Navarik": 0.6371,
        "Vrana": 0.3629,
        "Chromec": 0.0,
        "Obrtel": 0.0,
        "Someone_else": 0.0
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 9 %; Tipsport margin 9 %",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 9 %; Tipsport marže 9 %"
    },
    {
      "n": 66,
      "fortuna": {
        "Ostadal": 0.9837,
        "Skurek": 0.0163
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "Ostadal": 0.9702,
        "Skurek": 0.0298
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Skurek": 0.0231,
        "Ostadal": 0.9769,
        "Kohajda": 0.0,
        "Jelinek": 0.0,
        "Someone_else": 0.0
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 7 %; Tipsport margin 8 %",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 7 %; Tipsport marže 8 %"
    },
    {
      "n": 69,
      "fortuna": {
        "Pesatova": 0.5741,
        "Korc": 0.4259
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "Pesatova": 0.5655,
        "Korc": 0.4345
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Korc": 0.4302,
        "Pesatova": 0.5698,
        "Krpel": 0.0,
        "Someone_else": 0.0
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 9 %; Tipsport margin 9 %",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 9 %; Tipsport marže 9 %"
    },
    {
      "n": 72,
      "fortuna": {
        "Simetka": 0.985,
        "Barankova_Vilamova": 0.015
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "Simetka": 0.9841,
        "Barankova_Vilamova": 0.0159
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Barankova_Vilamova": 0.0154,
        "Simetka": 0.9846,
        "Loprais": 0.0,
        "Someone_else": 0.0
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 5 %; Tipsport margin 7 %",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 5 %; Tipsport marže 7 %"
    },
    {
      "n": 75,
      "fortuna": {
        "Brzyszkowska": 0.8292,
        "Kazik": 0.1708
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "Brzyszkowska": 0.8048,
        "Kazik": 0.1952
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Brzyszkowska": 0.817,
        "Kazik": 0.183,
        "Polach": 0.0,
        "Szyja": 0.0,
        "Stanek": 0.0,
        "Someone_else": 0.0
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 8 %; Tipsport margin 9 %",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 8 %; Tipsport marže 9 %"
    },
    {
      "n": 78,
      "fortuna": {
        "Golan": 0.8866,
        "Mitacek": 0.1134
      },
      "tipsport": {
        "Golan": 0.852,
        "Mitacek": 0.148
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Golan": 0.8693,
        "Mitacek": 0.1307,
        "Sedlarik": 0.0,
        "Someone_else": 0.0
      },
      "note": "Fortuna margin 9 %; Tipsport margin 9 %",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna marže 9 %; Tipsport marže 9 %"
    },
    {
      "n": 81,
      "tipsport": {
        "Bazala": 0.9863,
        "Vasica": 0.0137
      },
      "consensus": {
        "Bazala": 0.9863,
        "Vasica": 0.0137,
        "Balastikova": 0.0,
        "Someone_else": 0.0
      },
      "note": "Fortuna locked (skipped); Tipsport margin 4 %",
      "note_cs": "Fortuna uzamčeno (vynecháno); Tipsport marže 4 %"
    }
  ]
}