incumbent running As of 2026-10-09 · Stage: blind (no odds) · v1
counted 100 % · Source: ČSÚ (volbyhned.cz)
| Candidate | Party / backing | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miroslav Plevný | STAN | 13 659 | 40.08 % |
| Sandra Tsoukernik | ANO | 9 227 | 27.08 % |
| Štěpánka Černá | VOK | 4 194 | 12.30 % |
| Vladimír Keblúšek | NČ | 3 617 | 10.61 % |
| Ivan Reis | SPD | 2 186 | 6.41 % |
| Pavel Hojda | KSČM | 1 190 | 3.49 % |
Probability of winning the runoff. Scored separately from the freeze; the freeze (9 Oct) is scored on the final winner.
| Candidate | AI | Statistical model | AI + model | Betting | AI + betting | STEM (CNN Prima) | Seznam Zprávy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miroslav Plevný | 89 % | 96 % | 94 % | 99 % | 98 % | 99 % | 92 % |
| Sandra Tsoukernik | 11 % | 4 % | 6 % | 1 % | 2 % | 1 % | 8 % |
AI: v2 · AI + model: v2 · Odds contamination risk: none
| Candidate | AI | Statistical model | AI + model | Betting | AI + betting |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miroslav Plevný | 81 % | 62 % | 74 % | 40 % | 52 % |
| Sandra Tsoukernik | 16 % | 18 % | 18 % | 54 % | 41 % |
| Štěpánka Černá | 2 % | 6 % | 3 % | 3 % | 3 % |
| Others | 1 % | 14 % | 5 % | 3 % | 4 % |
| Candidate | Party / backing | P(win) | Band |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miroslav Plevný | STAN | 81 % | 68–88 % |
| Sandra Tsoukernik | ANO | 16 % | 10–29 % |
| Štěpánka Černá | VOK | 2 % | 1–5 % |
| Others | 1 % | 0–3 % |
Other candidates on the ballot: Vladimír Keblúšek (NČ), Pavel Hojda (KSČM), Ivan Reis (SPD). Candidates and lists per the official ČSÚ register (volby.gov.cz).
| Candidate | Party / backing | AI agent (blind) | Statistical model | Round-1 share (model, 80% interval) | P(advance / win round 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miroslav Plevný | STAN | 81 % | 62 % | 33 % (25–41) | 97 % |
| Sandra Tsoukernik | ANO | 16 % | 18 % | 27 % (19–35) | 88 % |
| Ivan Reis | SPD | in “others” | 6 % | 12 % (4–20) | 5 % |
| Štěpánka Černá | VOK | 2 % | 6 % | 11 % (3–19) | 4 % |
| Pavel Hojda | KSČM | in “others” | 4 % | 9 % (0–16) | 2 % |
| Vladimír Keblúšek | NČ | in “others” | 3 % | 9 % (0–16) | 2 % |
AI agent (blind) — Others: 1 %. The model cannot see candidates with neither party nor municipal base (new movements, personal brand) — it underrates them. Model →
Incumbent with broad coalition backing; won the 2020 runoff 70–30. ANO has a strong base but a weak long-run runoff record.
Round-1 order: if Tsoukernik leads by 5+ pp, Plevný drops to ~55–62 %.
Session web-search budget exhausted during red-team; late-September–2. 10. local-news sweep incomplete; volby.cz candidate pages not opened; no district poll exists.possibleadjustmentpass