Score: final evaluation

Main scoring: forecasts of 9 Oct (all 27 districts)

Chance of winning the seat locked before round 1, scored on the final winner. Multi-outcome Brier Σ(p − outcome)², lower is better. Reference odds readings in grey.

series	n	mean Brier ↓	mean log score ↑	favourite won
AI 2 Oct	27	0.368	-0.690	21/27
AI	27	0.369	-0.691	21/27
Statistical model	27	0.418	-0.841	21/27
AI + model	27	0.375	-0.752	21/27
Betting	27	0.381	-0.713	20/27
AI + betting	27	0.352	-0.674	21/27
ref: 9 Oct evening	27	0.373	-0.701	20/27
ref: 10 Oct morning	27	0.373	-0.701	20/27

9 pre-registered disputed districts (5 Oct)

series	n	mean Brier ↓	mean log score ↑	favourite won
AI 2 Oct	9	0.594	-0.929	5/9
AI	9	0.599	-0.934	5/9
Statistical model	9	0.665	-1.186	5/9
AI + model	9	0.638	-1.067	5/9
Betting	9	0.655	-1.052	4/9
AI + betting	9	0.604	-0.955	5/9
ref: 9 Oct evening	9	0.645	-1.037	4/9
ref: 10 Oct morning	9	0.646	-1.038	4/9

7 disputed districts at freeze (9 Oct)

series	n	mean Brier ↓	mean log score ↑	favourite won
AI 2 Oct	7	0.502	-0.837	5/7
AI	7	0.507	-0.844	5/7
Statistical model	7	0.631	-1.115	4/7
AI + model	7	0.587	-0.991	4/7
Betting	7	0.697	-1.120	3/7
AI + betting	7	0.605	-0.967	4/7
ref: 9 Oct evening	7	0.674	-1.089	3/7
ref: 10 Oct morning	7	0.676	-1.091	3/7

Round 2: forecasts of 16 Oct

The last lock before polls opened and the scored odds of 16 Oct 13:50. The main comparison uses the 20 duels where every series has numbers: in Praha 1 and Kolín one side was locked at the bookmakers. External models and the internal transfer test in grey.

series	n	mean Brier ↓	mean log score ↑	favourite won
AI	20	0.227	-0.368	15/20
Statistical model	20	0.188	-0.298	16/20
AI + model	20	0.188	-0.309	16/20
Betting	20	0.169	-0.262	18/20
AI + betting	20	0.170	-0.269	18/20
STEM (CNN Prima)	20	0.188	-0.283	18/20
Seznam Zprávy	20	0.236	-0.349	16/20
Transfers (internal test)	20	0.268	-0.537	16/20

All duels each series forecast

series	n	mean Brier ↓	mean log score ↑	favourite won
AI	22	0.207	-0.340	17/22
Statistical model	22	0.172	-0.275	18/22
AI + model	22	0.171	-0.286	18/22
Betting	20	0.169	-0.262	18/20
AI + betting	20	0.170	-0.269	18/20
STEM (CNN Prima)	22	0.171	-0.258	20/22
Seznam Zprávy	22	0.214	-0.319	18/22
Transfers (internal test)	22	0.244	-0.491	18/22

By district: round 2

Probability each series gave to the actual winner, in %. * = the series' favourite lost. ↺ = the round-1 runner-up won.

district	round-2 result	AI	Statistical model	AI + model	Betting	AI + betting	STEM (CNN Prima)	Seznam Zprávy	Transfers (internal test)
3 Cheb	Miroslav Plevný 71.3 : 28.6 Sandra Tsoukernik	89	96	94	99	98	99	92	94
6 Louny	Ivo Trešl 66.2 : 33.8 Jaroslav Mikoláš	89	97	94	99	98	99	98	99
9 Plzeň-město	Karel Řehka 59.4 : 40.6 Lucie Kantorová	82	97	94	99	98	99	98	98
15 Pelhřimov	Ladislav Med 61.8 : 38.1 Michal Kozár	78	84	82	91	88	99	74	69
18 Příbram	Petr Štěpánek 74.2 : 25.7 Barbora Daňhová	93	97	96	99	98	99	99	100
21 Praha 5	Václav Láska 53.2 : 46.8 Radko Sáblík	64	64	62	77	73	30*	68	69
24 Praha 9	David Smoljak 78.7 : 21.3 Dagmar Pecková	95	97	96	98	98	99	97	98
27 Praha 1	Jiří Padevět 66.7 : 33.3 Jan Čižinský	93	95	94	—	—	99	98	96
30 Kladno	Petr Paták 51.7 : 48.3 Adéla Sucharda Šípová ↺	47*	46*	48*	58	55	87	57	45*
36 Česká Lípa	Martin Půta 55.8 : 44.2 Jitka Volfová ↺	72	72	74	92	88	98	92	74
42 Kolín	Michael Kašpar 73.2 : 26.8 Andrea Brzobohatá	95	97	96	—	—	99	99	100
45 Hradec Králové	Zuzana Ceralová Petrofová 60.1 : 39.8 Martin Dvořák ↺	49*	42*	49*	51	50	71	23*	37*
51 Žďár nad Sázavou	Josef Klement 54.1 : 45.9 Michal Šmarda ↺	56	78	66	77	74	55	47*	94
54 Znojmo	Tomáš Třetina 63.7 : 36.3 Jiří Kyněra	84	97	91	98	96	99	93	96
60 Brno-město	Zdeněk Papoušek 65.8 : 34.2 Karel Zitterbart	84	91	86	97	95	99	92	94
63 Přerov	Jakub Navařík 56.9 : 43.1 Petr Vrána	49*	79	62	64	63	53	66	57
66 Litovel	Marek Ošťádal 65.4 : 34.6 Martin Škurek	83	84	88	98	96	99	97	66
69 Frýdek-Místek	Petr Korč 52.1 : 47.9 Helena Pešatová ↺	48*	44*	46*	43*	44*	77	41*	38*
72 Ostrava-město	Ondřej Šimetka 65.9 : 34.1 Lucie Baránková Vilamová	91	97	95	98	98	99	96	96
75 Karviná	Petr Kazík 52.9 : 47.1 Lenka Brzyszkowská ↺	28*	27*	35*	18*	23*	10*	28*	0*
78 Zlín	Tomáš Goláň 62.1 : 37.8 Ivo Mitáček	73	77	74	87	84	96	66	85
81 Uherské Hradiště	Josef Bazala 65.5 : 34.5 Jiří Vašica	94	97	96	99	98	99	97	98

By district: forecasts of 9 Oct

Probability each series gave to the actual winner, in %. * = the series' favourite lost. ↺ = the round-1 runner-up won.

district	elected	AI 2 Oct	AI	Statistical model	AI + model	Betting	AI + betting
3 Cheb	Miroslav Plevný 71.3 : 28.6 Sandra Tsoukernik	81	81	62	74	40*	52
6 Louny	Ivo Trešl 66.2 : 33.8 Jaroslav Mikoláš	66	66	67	71	64	66
9 Plzeň-město	Karel Řehka 59.4 : 40.6 Lucie Kantorová	26*	26*	28*	29*	63	53
12 Strakonice	Tomáš Fiala 55.4 % (round 1)	87	87	48	69	92	88
15 Pelhřimov	Ladislav Med 61.8 : 38.1 Michal Kozár	45	45	75	69	29*	44
18 Příbram	Petr Štěpánek 74.2 : 25.7 Barbora Daňhová	74	74	80	82	90	88
21 Praha 5	Václav Láska 53.2 : 46.8 Radko Sáblík	46	46	17*	27*	66	55
24 Praha 9	David Smoljak 78.7 : 21.3 Dagmar Pecková	58	58	88	79	79	79
27 Praha 1	Jiří Padevět 66.7 : 33.3 Jan Čižinský	43*	43*	70	70	46	55
30 Kladno	Petr Paták 51.7 : 48.3 Adéla Sucharda Šípová ↺	23*	23*	7*	9*	46	32*
33 Děčín	Zbyněk Linhart 52.2 % (round 1)	84	84	80	82	88	87
36 Česká Lípa	Martin Půta 55.8 : 44.2 Jitka Volfová ↺	58	58	35	39	58	53
39 Trutnov	Jan Sobotka 58.4 % (round 1)	85	85	84	88	97	95
42 Kolín	Michael Kašpar 73.2 : 26.8 Andrea Brzobohatá	75	75	60	72	72	72
45 Hradec Králové	Zuzana Ceralová Petrofová 60.1 : 39.8 Martin Dvořák ↺	17*	17*	6*	11*	16*	15*
48 Rychnov nad Kněžnou	Jan Grulich 62.2 % (round 1)	71	71	97	82	96	93
51 Žďár nad Sázavou	Josef Klement 54.1 : 45.9 Michal Šmarda ↺	70	70	58	59	73	69
54 Znojmo	Tomáš Třetina 63.7 : 36.3 Jiří Kyněra	71	71	84	84	55	68
57 Vyškov	Jan Grolich 63.3 % (round 1)	80	80	49	76	98	96
60 Brno-město	Zdeněk Papoušek 65.8 : 34.2 Karel Zitterbart	54	56	79	75	85	83
63 Přerov	Jakub Navařík 56.9 : 43.1 Petr Vrána	63	63	73	74	14*	29*
66 Litovel	Marek Ošťádal 65.4 : 34.6 Martin Škurek	45	43	33	36	13*	19*
69 Frýdek-Místek	Petr Korč 52.1 : 47.9 Helena Pešatová ↺	19*	19*	8*	10*	42*	30*
72 Ostrava-město	Ondřej Šimetka 65.9 : 34.1 Lucie Baránková Vilamová	71	71	82	84	46	61
75 Karviná	Petr Kazík 52.9 : 47.1 Lenka Brzyszkowská ↺	4*	4*	6*	3*	2*	2*
78 Zlín	Tomáš Goláň 62.1 : 37.8 Ivo Mitáček	73	73	68	77	77	77
81 Uherské Hradiště	Josef Bazala 65.5 : 34.5 Jiří Vašica	83	83	51	71	95	91

Interim scoring after round 1 (11 Oct)

All five series forecast who wins the seat, so after round 1 the score is only partial. For the five districts decided in round 1 we compute full Brier and log scores. For the rest we measure how much probability each series put on candidates who were eliminated (lower is better), whether its favourite advanced, and what its Brier will be if the round-1 leader or the runner-up wins the runoff. The scored snapshot is the 9 Oct freeze; "ref" rows are later odds, for comparison only. Full scoring follows round 2.

All 27 districts

series	favourite advanced	P on eliminated (Σ)	Brier – fixed part (Σ)	Brier if round-1 leader wins (Σ)	Brier if runner-up wins (Σ)	Decided in round 1: Brier / log
AI 2 Oct	26/27	4.82	1.168	8.11	22.19	0.358 / 1.04 (n=5)
AI	26/27	4.82	1.175	8.12	22.20	0.358 / 1.04 (n=5)
Statistical model	26/27	6.60	1.148	7.81	26.69	0.905 / 1.88 (n=5)
AI + model	26/27	5.00	0.960	6.41	25.98	0.410 / 1.18 (n=5)
Betting	26/27	3.94	0.805	10.07	20.62	0.037 / 0.30 (n=5)
AI + betting	26/27	4.04	0.740	7.93	22.03	0.067 / 0.44 (n=5)
ref: Fortuna close	26/27	3.95	0.805	10.06	20.62	0.037 / 0.30 (n=5)
ref: 9 Oct evening	26/27	3.85	0.778	9.82	20.94	0.037 / 0.30 (n=5)
ref: 10 Oct morning	26/27	3.84	0.777	9.80	20.96	0.037 / 0.30 (n=5)

9 pre-registered disputed (5 Oct)

series	favourite advanced	P on eliminated (Σ)	Brier – fixed part (Σ)	Brier if round-1 leader wins (Σ)	Brier if runner-up wins (Σ)	Decided in round 1: Brier / log
AI 2 Oct	8/9	2.03	0.732	3.67	8.73	—
AI	8/9	2.05	0.748	3.71	8.73	—
Statistical model	8/9	2.10	0.401	3.14	10.00	—
AI + model	8/9	1.81	0.518	2.90	10.13	—
Betting	8/9	2.02	0.653	6.23	5.98	—
AI + betting	8/9	1.96	0.576	4.58	6.91	—
ref: Fortuna close	8/9	2.03	0.653	6.22	5.97	—
ref: 9 Oct evening	8/9	1.98	0.635	6.06	6.10	—
ref: 10 Oct morning	8/9	1.98	0.634	6.04	6.11	—

7 disputed at freeze (9 Oct)

series	favourite advanced	P on eliminated (Σ)	Brier – fixed part (Σ)	Brier if round-1 leader wins (Σ)	Brier if runner-up wins (Σ)	Decided in round 1: Brier / log
AI 2 Oct	6/7	1.94	0.730	2.95	7.12	—
AI	6/7	1.96	0.746	2.99	7.11	—
Statistical model	6/7	1.78	0.364	2.93	7.32	—
AI + model	6/7	1.69	0.513	2.69	7.64	—
Betting	6/7	1.78	0.637	5.26	4.88	—
AI + betting	6/7	1.77	0.565	3.96	5.37	—
ref: Fortuna close	6/7	1.78	0.636	5.21	4.91	—
ref: 9 Oct evening	6/7	1.74	0.619	5.11	4.99	—
ref: 10 Oct morning	6/7	1.74	0.618	5.09	5.00	—

By district

Probability each series gave to the candidates who advanced (or won outright), in %. * = the series' favourite was eliminated.

#	Round 1	AI 2 Oct	AI	Statistical model	AI + model	Betting	AI + betting
3 Cheb	Plevný 40.1 · Tsoukernik 27.1	97	97	81	92	93	93
6 Louny	Trešl 43.5 · Mikoláš 25.6	98	98	81	91	89	90
9 Plzeň-město	Řehka 32.9 · Kantorová 27.3	41*	41*	34*	35*	68	58
12 Strakonice	Fiala 55.4 ✔	87	87	48	69	92	88
15 Pelhřimov	Med 30.5 · Kozár 27.1	58	58	82	75	75	73
18 Příbram	Štěpánek 43.7 · Daňhová 25.2	97	97	85	94	95	95
21 Praha 5	Láska 32.5 · Sáblík 27.1	77	77	85	82	89	87
24 Praha 9	Smoljak 48.9 · Pecková 23.1	95	95	91	97	96	96
27 Praha 1	Padevět 49.6 · Čižinský 27.7	97	97	84	97	89	93
30 Kladno	Sucharda 30.8 · Paták 29.4	74	74	89	89	73	78
33 Děčín	Linhart 52.2 ✔	84	84	80	82	88	87
36 Česká Lípa	Volfová 35.0 · Půta 32.7	84	84	58	68	86	82
39 Trutnov	Sobotka 58.4 ✔	85	85	84	88	97	95
42 Kolín	Kašpar 45.3 · Brzobohatá 25.5	85	85	66	78	83	82
45 Hradec Králové	Dvořák 25.1 · Ceralová 21.9	61	61	75	79	67	71
48 Rychnov nad Kněžnou	Grulich 62.2 ✔	71	71	97	82	96	93
51 Žďár nad Sázavou	Šmarda 27.6 · Klement 25.6	94	94	63	74	85	83
54 Znojmo	Třetina 35.5 · Kyněra 22.3	94	94	89	94	86	91
57 Vyškov	Grolich 63.3 ✔	80	80	49	76	98	96
60 Brno-město	Papoušek 42.1 · Zitterbart 24.4	70	72	89	89	91	90
63 Přerov	Navařík 38.5 · Vrána 37.6	99	99	92	98	96	97
66 Litovel	Ošťádal 32.2 · Škurek 28.8	60	58	60	60	28*	36*
69 Frýdek-Místek	Pešatová 34.8 · Korč 32.5	94	94	84	91	87	88
72 Ostrava-město	Šimetka 46.7 · Baránková 30.6	96	96	86	95	88	91
75 Karviná	Brzyszkowská 33.6 · Kazík 14.3	69	69	46	49	87	80
78 Zlín	Goláň 33.5 · Mitáček 22.8	76	76	90	88	85	86
81 Uherské Hradiště	Bazala 47.8 · Vašica 28.3	96	96	70	89	98	96