Senát 2026 · forecast

How the probabilities moved

Chance that the round-1 winner (solid line) and the runner-up (dotted) becomes senator, day by day since 2 Oct. After round 1 the dotted line mirrors the solid one (they sum to 100 %); before it they do not – there were more candidates. Blue is pure AI – the agent without the statistical model and without odds, i.e. what the experiment tests; orange is the bookmakers (from 5 Oct). All panels share one 0–100 % scale (labelled on the first) and one time axis; the dotted line is 50 %, the light band is round-1 voting and counting (9–10 Oct). Lines do not cross it, because the change there is a jump caused by the result, not a trend. The dot on 9 Oct is the scored pre-election forecast (freeze). After round 1 the line starts on the evening of 10 Oct (for Praha 1, 5, 9, Brno and Žďár on the morning of 11 Oct, after the final count). Before round 1 the numbers are lower because there were more candidates. Panels are ordered from the closest race. Numbers at the line ends are from the latest day; hover a point to see the day and value.

AI (agent only)Bettingsolid = round-1 winner · dotted = round-1 runner-up

No betting odds on 10–11 Oct (round-1 market closed, round-2 market not yet open) — the line is broken.