incumbent running As of 2026-10-09 · Stage: blind (no odds) · v1
counted 100 % · Source: ČSÚ (volbyhned.cz)
| Candidate | Party / backing | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ivo Trešl | STAN | 19 872 | 43.50 % |
| Jaroslav Mikoláš | ANO | 11 675 | 25.55 % |
| Vladislav Hrbáček | SPD | 4 992 | 10.92 % |
| Leo Steiner | JsmePRO! | 4 617 | 10.10 % |
| Ivana Hluštíková | Zelení+Piráti | 2 955 | 6.46 % |
| Jiří Kobza | Stačilo! | 1 568 | 3.43 % |
Probability of winning the runoff. Scored separately from the freeze; the freeze (9 Oct) is scored on the final winner.
| Candidate | AI | Statistical model | AI + model | Betting | AI + betting | STEM (CNN Prima) | Seznam Zprávy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ivo Trešl | 89 % | 97 % | 94 % | 99 % | 98 % | 99 % | 98 % |
| Jaroslav Mikoláš | 11 % | 3 % | 6 % | 1 % | 2 % | 1 % | 2 % |
AI: v2 · AI + model: v2 · Odds contamination risk: low
| Candidate | AI | Statistical model | AI + model | Betting | AI + betting |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ivo Trešl | 66 % | 67 % | 71 % | 64 % | 66 % |
| Jaroslav Mikoláš | 32 % | 14 % | 20 % | 25 % | 23 % |
| Leo Steiner | 1 % | 4 % | 2 % | 6 % | 4 % |
| Others | 1 % | 15 % | 7 % | 5 % | 6 % |
| Candidate | Party / backing | P(win) | Band |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ivo Trešl | STAN | 66 % | 48–80 % |
| Jaroslav Mikoláš | ANO | 32 % | 18–49 % |
| Leo Steiner | JsmePRO! | 1 % | 0–3 % |
| Others | 1 % | 0–3 % |
Other candidates on the ballot: Vladislav Hrbáček (SPD), Jiří Kobza (Stačilo!), Ivana Hluštíková (Zelení+Piráti). Candidates and lists per the official ČSÚ register (volby.gov.cz).
| Candidate | Party / backing | AI agent (blind) | Statistical model | Round-1 share (model, 80% interval) | P(advance / win round 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ivo Trešl | STAN | 66 % | 67 % | 33 % (25–42) | 98 % |
| Jaroslav Mikoláš | ANO | 32 % | 14 % | 27 % (19–36) | 89 % |
| Ivana Hluštíková | Zelení+Piráti | in “others” | 5 % | 10 % (1–18) | 3 % |
| Vladislav Hrbáček | SPD | in “others” | 5 % | 11 % (3–19) | 5 % |
| Jiří Kobza | Stačilo! | in “others” | 4 % | 9 % (0–16) | 2 % |
| Leo Steiner | JsmePRO! | 1 % | 4 % | 10 % (1–17) | 3 % |
AI agent (blind) — Others: 1 %. The model cannot see candidates with neither party nor municipal base (new movements, personal brand) — it underrates them. Model →
Incumbent vs. ANO in an ANO-strong area; who leads after round 1 is decisive.
If Mikoláš leads after round 1 it is roughly a coin flip. Watch turnout around Rakovník (Trešl's base).
Session WebSearch budget exhausted during red-team (200/200) → red-team used WebFetch only; iROZHLAS 'Dvojitě opoziční Senát' 403, Deník N not reached, volby.gov.cz Senate pages 404, ods.cz endorsement page 404. No district poll, no Mikoláš campaign data, Kobza legal status and Jsme PRO! identity unresolved.possibleadjustmentwarn