incumbent running As of 2026-10-09 · Stage: blind (no odds) · v1
counted 100 % · Source: ČSÚ (volbyhned.cz)
| Candidate | Party / backing | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Karel Řehka | STAN | 12 611 | 32.86 % |
| Lucie Kantorová | ANO | 10 463 | 27.26 % |
| Lumír Aschenbrenner | ODS+KoruČes+TOP | 7 714 | 20.10 % |
| Daniela Pousková | PRO PLZEŇ | 3 043 | 7.92 % |
| Július Líška | SPD | 1 845 | 4.80 % |
| Jiří Valenta | KSČM | 1 181 | 3.07 % |
| Bohumír Janský | SEN 21 | 1 106 | 2.88 % |
| Jaroslav Novák | JaSaN | 412 | 1.07 % |
Probability of winning the runoff. Scored separately from the freeze; the freeze (9 Oct) is scored on the final winner.
| Candidate | AI | Statistical model | AI + model | Betting | AI + betting | STEM (CNN Prima) | Seznam Zprávy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karel Řehka | 82 % | 97 % | 94 % | 99 % | 98 % | 99 % | 98 % |
| Lucie Kantorová | 18 % | 3 % | 6 % | 1 % | 2 % | 1 % | 2 % |
AI: v2 · AI + model: v2 · Odds contamination risk: low
| Candidate | AI | Statistical model | AI + model | Betting | AI + betting |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lumír Aschenbrenner | 57 % | 48 % | 57 % | 27 % | 36 % |
| Karel Řehka | 26 % | 28 % | 29 % | 63 % | 53 % |
| Lucie Kantorová | 15 % | 5 % | 6 % | 4 % | 5 % |
| Daniela Pousková | 1 % | 8 % | 5 % | 1 % | 2 % |
| Others | 1 % | 10 % | 3 % | 5 % | 4 % |
| Candidate | Party / backing | P(win) | Band |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lumír Aschenbrenner | ODS+KoruČes+TOP (navrhl/a ODS) | 57 % | 44–67 % |
| Karel Řehka | STAN | 26 % | 16–38 % |
| Lucie Kantorová | ANO | 15 % | 8–24 % |
| Daniela Pousková | PRO PLZEŇ | 1 % | 0–4 % |
| Others | 1 % | 0–3 % |
Other candidates on the ballot: Jaroslav Novák (JaSaN), Bohumír Janský (SEN 21), Jiří Valenta (KSČM), Július Líška (SPD). Candidates and lists per the official ČSÚ register (volby.gov.cz).
| Candidate | Party / backing | AI agent (blind) | Statistical model | Round-1 share (model, 80% interval) | P(advance / win round 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lumír Aschenbrenner | ODS+KoruČes+TOP | 57 % | 48 % | 25 % (17–32) | 83 % |
| Karel Řehka | STAN | 26 % | 28 % | 19 % (12–26) | 48 % |
| Daniela Pousková | PRO PLZEŇ | 1 % | 8 % | 12 % (5–20) | 12 % |
| Lucie Kantorová | ANO | 15 % | 5 % | 19 % (12–26) | 50 % |
| Bohumír Janský | SEN 21 | in “others” | 3 % | 6 % (0–12) | 1 % |
| Július Líška | SPD | in “others” | 3 % | 8 % (0–14) | 3 % |
| Jiří Valenta | KSČM | in “others” | 2 % | 6 % (0–12) | 1 % |
| Jaroslav Novák | JaSaN | in “others” | 2 % | 6 % (0–12) | 1 % |
AI agent (blind) — Others: 1 %. The model cannot see candidates with neither party nor municipal base (new movements, personal brand) — it underrates them. Model →
The incumbent most likely meets Kantorová (ANO) in the runoff and should beat her. Main risk: former Chief of General Staff Řehka splitting the centre-right vote.
If Řehka finishes ahead of Aschenbrenner in round 1, he becomes the favourite (~55 %).
possiblerebuildpass