incumbent running; only 3 candidates As of 2026-10-09 · Stage: blind (no odds) · v1
counted 100 % · Source: ČSÚ (volbyhned.cz)
| Candidate | Party / backing | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tomáš Fiala | NČ | 24 643 | 55.41 % |
| Miroslav Ušatý | Svob+SPD+Trikol | 10 629 | 23.90 % |
| Jana Hrdinová | KDU-ČSL | 9 195 | 20.67 % |
| Candidate | AI | Statistical model | AI + model | Betting | AI + betting |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomáš Fiala | 87 % | 48 % | 69 % | 92 % | 88 % |
| Jana Hrdinová | 7 % | 31 % | 25 % | 6 % | 10 % |
| Miroslav Ušatý | 6 % | 21 % | 6 % | 2 % | 3 % |
| Others | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | 0.0 % |
| Candidate | Party / backing | P(win) | Band |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tomáš Fiala | NČ | 87 % | 76–94 % |
| Jana Hrdinová | KDU-ČSL | 7 % | 3–15 % |
| Miroslav Ušatý | Svob+SPD+Trikol (navrhl/a Svobodní) | 6 % | 2–12 % |
| Others | 0 % | 0–0 % |
Other candidates on the ballot: —. Candidates and lists per the official ČSÚ register (volby.gov.cz).
| Candidate | Party / backing | AI agent (blind) | Statistical model | Round-1 share (model, 80% interval) | P(advance / win round 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomáš Fiala | NČ | 87 % | 48 % | 38 % (29–46) | 84 % |
| Jana Hrdinová | KDU-ČSL | 7 % | 31 % | 32 % (23–40) | 58 % |
| Miroslav Ušatý | Svob+SPD+Trikol | 6 % | 21 % | 31 % (22–39) | 53 % |
AI agent (blind) — Others: 0 %. The model cannot see candidates with neither party nor municipal base (new movements, personal brand) — it underrates them. Model →
Only three candidates; neither ANO nor ODS runs. The incumbent has a real chance of winning outright in round 1 (~43 %).
Fiala above 50 % settles it; otherwise the runoff opponent matters.
possibleadjustment · post-hoc independent red-teampass