incumbent running against his own bloc's candidate As of 2026-10-09 · Stage: blind (no odds) · v1
counted 100 % · Source: ČSÚ (volbyhned.cz)
| Candidate | Party / backing | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ladislav Med | KDUODSSTANTOPST | 14 321 | 30.48 % |
| Michal Kozár | ANO | 12 758 | 27.15 % |
| Jaroslav Chalupský | HSR | 11 799 | 25.11 % |
| Karolína Kubisková | VÝZVA | 4 066 | 8.65 % |
| Lucie Pavlů Řádová | SPD | 2 676 | 5.69 % |
| Pavel Hodáč | KSČM | 1 356 | 2.88 % |
Probability of winning the runoff. Scored separately from the freeze; the freeze (9 Oct) is scored on the final winner.
| Candidate | AI | Statistical model | AI + model | Betting | AI + betting | STEM (CNN Prima) | Seznam Zprávy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladislav Med | 78 % | 84 % | 82 % | 91 % | 88 % | 99 % | 74 % |
| Michal Kozár | 22 % | 16 % | 18 % | 9 % | 12 % | 1 % | 26 % |
AI: v2 · AI + model: v2 · Odds contamination risk: moderate
| Candidate | AI | Statistical model | AI + model | Betting | AI + betting |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladislav Med | 45 % | 75 % | 69 % | 29 % | 44 % |
| Jaroslav Chalupský | 40 % | 10 % | 23 % | 20 % | 22 % |
| Michal Kozár | 13 % | 7 % | 6 % | 46 % | 30 % |
| Lucie Pavlů Řádová | 1 % | 3 % | 1 % | 3 % | 2 % |
| Others | 1 % | 5 % | 1 % | 2 % | 2 % |
| Candidate | Party / backing | P(win) | Band |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ladislav Med | KDUODSSTANTOPST (navrhl/a ODS) | 45 % | 30–60 % |
| Jaroslav Chalupský | HSR | 40 % | 25–56 % |
| Michal Kozár | ANO | 13 % | 6–24 % |
| Lucie Pavlů Řádová | SPD | 1 % | 0–3 % |
| Others | 1 % | 0–3 % |
Other candidates on the ballot: Pavel Hodáč (KSČM), Karolína Kubisková (VÝZVA). Candidates and lists per the official ČSÚ register (volby.gov.cz).
| Candidate | Party / backing | AI agent (blind) | Statistical model | Round-1 share (model, 80% interval) | P(advance / win round 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladislav Med | KDUODSSTANTOPST | 45 % | 75 % | 37 % (30–44) | 100 % |
| Jaroslav Chalupský | HSR | 40 % | 10 % | 17 % (10–24) | 24 % |
| Michal Kozár | ANO | 13 % | 7 % | 22 % (16–29) | 70 % |
| Pavel Hodáč | KSČM | in “others” | 3 % | 7 % (0–14) | 1 % |
| Lucie Pavlů Řádová | SPD | 1 % | 3 % | 9 % (2–16) | 2 % |
| Karolína Kubisková | VÝZVA | in “others” | 3 % | 8 % (0–14) | 1 % |
AI agent (blind) — Others: 1 %. The model cannot see candidates with neither party nor municipal base (new movements, personal brand) — it underrates them. Model →
One of the closest races: the coalition backs Med against incumbent Chalupský. The ANO candidate's runoff prospects are weak.
The Med vs. Chalupský order in round 1 will practically decide the seat.
Session WebSearch budget exhausted during red-team (1 query, rest WebFetch); irozhlas 403; JH district 2025 + Vysočina 2024 results, 2020 support structure and the reason ODS did not back Chalupský not found.possibleadjustmentpass