incumbent running As of 2026-10-09 · Stage: blind (no odds) · v1
counted 100 % · Source: ČSÚ (volbyhned.cz)
| Candidate | Party / backing | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Petr Štěpánek | STAN | 23 305 | 43.70 % |
| Barbora Daňhová | ANO | 13 446 | 25.21 % |
| Simona Luftová | Zelení+Piráti | 6 436 | 12.07 % |
| Josef Šorna | SPD+PRO | 5 013 | 9.40 % |
| Frank Thomas Podstatzky-Lichtenstein | ČZS | 3 106 | 5.82 % |
| Pavel Vermach | SMS | 2 014 | 3.77 % |
Probability of winning the runoff. Scored separately from the freeze; the freeze (9 Oct) is scored on the final winner.
| Candidate | AI | Statistical model | AI + model | Betting | AI + betting | STEM (CNN Prima) | Seznam Zprávy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Petr Štěpánek | 93 % | 97 % | 96 % | 99 % | 98 % | 99 % | 99 % |
| Barbora Daňhová | 7 % | 3 % | 4 % | 1 % | 2 % | 1 % | 1 % |
AI: v2 · AI + model: v2 · Odds contamination risk: none
| Candidate | AI | Statistical model | AI + model | Betting | AI + betting |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Petr Štěpánek | 74 % | 80 % | 82 % | 90 % | 88 % |
| Barbora Daňhová | 23 % | 6 % | 13 % | 5 % | 7 % |
| Simona Luftová | 1 % | 7 % | 2 % | 3 % | 3 % |
| Josef Šorna | 1 % | 3 % | 2 % | 1 % | 1 % |
| Others | 1 % | 5 % | 2 % | 1.0 % | 1 % |
| Candidate | Party / backing | P(win) | Band |
|---|---|---|---|
| Petr Štěpánek | STAN | 74 % | 60–84 % |
| Barbora Daňhová | ANO | 23 % | 13–36 % |
| Simona Luftová | Zelení+Piráti (navrhl/a Piráti) | 1 % | 0–4 % |
| Josef Šorna | SPD+PRO (navrhl/a PRO) | 1 % | 0–3 % |
| Others | 1 % | 0–2 % |
Other candidates on the ballot: Pavel Vermach (SMS), Frank Thomas Podstatzky-Lichtenstein (ČZS). Candidates and lists per the official ČSÚ register (volby.gov.cz).
| Candidate | Party / backing | AI agent (blind) | Statistical model | Round-1 share (model, 80% interval) | P(advance / win round 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Petr Štěpánek | STAN | 74 % | 80 % | 38 % (29–47) | 99 % |
| Simona Luftová | Zelení+Piráti | 1 % | 7 % | 12 % (4–20) | 10 % |
| Barbora Daňhová | ANO | 23 % | 6 % | 22 % (14–30) | 70 % |
| Pavel Vermach | SMS | in “others” | 3 % | 9 % (0–17) | 4 % |
| Josef Šorna | SPD+PRO | 1 % | 3 % | 10 % (1–18) | 6 % |
| Frank Thomas Podstatzky-Lichtenstein | ČZS | in “others” | 3 % | 9 % (0–17) | 4 % |
AI agent (blind) — Others: 1 %. The model cannot see candidates with neither party nor municipal base (new movements, personal brand) — it underrates them. Model →
The blocs are roughly level locally (2024 regional vote), but ANO loses ground in runoffs.
If Daňhová leads after round 1, Štěpánek drops to ~60 %.
Session web-search budget exhausted during red-team (4 queries); Štěpánek record/scandal and endorsement checks limited to fetched local articles. Historical obvod results single-sourced (Wikipedia). Candidate list re-verified via programydovoleb.cz WebFetch.noneadjustmentpass