incumbent running without party support As of 2026-10-09 · Stage: blind (no odds) · v1
counted 100 % · Source: ČSÚ (volbyhned.cz)
| Candidate | Party / backing | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Václav Láska | SEN 21 | 14 606 | 32.54 % |
| Radko Sáblík | KDUČSL+ODS+STAN | 12 162 | 27.10 % |
| Zdeněk Šarapatka | Piráti+TOP+LES | 8 866 | 19.75 % |
| Lubomír Brož | ANO | 6 030 | 13.43 % |
| Pavel Spirov | SPD | 2 084 | 4.64 % |
| Petra Prokšanová | KSČM | 711 | 1.58 % |
| Ľubomír Augustín | PŘÍSAHA | 418 | 0.93 % |
Probability of winning the runoff. Scored separately from the freeze; the freeze (9 Oct) is scored on the final winner.
| Candidate | AI | Statistical model | AI + model | Betting | AI + betting | STEM (CNN Prima) | Seznam Zprávy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Václav Láska | 64 % | 64 % | 62 % | 77 % | 73 % | 30 % | 68 % |
| Radko Sáblík | 36 % | 36 % | 38 % | 23 % | 27 % | 70 % | 32 % |
AI: v2 · AI + model: v2 · Odds contamination risk: none
| Candidate | AI | Statistical model | AI + model | Betting | AI + betting |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Václav Láska | 46 % | 17 % | 27 % | 66 % | 55 % |
| Radko Sáblík | 31 % | 68 % | 55 % | 23 % | 32 % |
| Zdeněk Šarapatka | 16 % | 6 % | 14 % | 7 % | 9 % |
| Lubomír Brož | 6 % | 2 % | 3 % | 3 % | 3 % |
| Others | 1 % | 7 % | 1 % | 1 % | 1 % |
| Candidate | Party / backing | P(win) | Band |
|---|---|---|---|
| Václav Láska | SEN 21 | 46 % | 34–60 % |
| Radko Sáblík | KDUČSL+ODS+STAN (navrhl/a ODS) | 31 % | 19–44 % |
| Zdeněk Šarapatka | Piráti+TOP+LES (navrhl/a TOP 09) | 16 % | 7–26 % |
| Lubomír Brož | ANO | 6 % | 3–11 % |
| Others | 1 % | 0–2 % |
Other candidates on the ballot: Ľubomír Augustín (PŘÍSAHA), Pavel Spirov (SPD), Petra Prokšanová (KSČM). Candidates and lists per the official ČSÚ register (volby.gov.cz).
| Candidate | Party / backing | AI agent (blind) | Statistical model | Round-1 share (model, 80% interval) | P(advance / win round 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Radko Sáblík | KDUČSL+ODS+STAN | 31 % | 68 % | 36 % (30–44) | 100 % |
| Václav Láska | SEN 21 | 46 % | 17 % | 20 % (14–27) | 73 % |
| Zdeněk Šarapatka | Piráti+TOP+LES | 16 % | 6 % | 14 % (8–20) | 17 % |
| Lubomír Brož | ANO | 6 % | 2 % | 11 % (4–17) | 6 % |
| Ľubomír Augustín | PŘÍSAHA | in “others” | 2 % | 6 % (0–12) | 0.9 % |
| Pavel Spirov | SPD | in “others” | 2 % | 6 % (0–12) | 1 % |
| Petra Prokšanová | KSČM | in “others” | 2 % | 6 % (0–12) | 0.8 % |
AI agent (blind) — Others: 1 %. The model cannot see candidates with neither party nor municipal base (new movements, personal brand) — it underrates them. Model →
Láska has a personal brand, but the parties that backed him in 2020 now back his rivals. Split centre-right field.
Láska first → ~65–70 %; Láska third → out. Endorsements between rounds.
noneadjustment · post-hoc independent red-teampass