incumbent running As of 2026-10-09 · Stage: blind (no odds) · v1
counted 100 % · Source: ČSÚ (volbyhned.cz)
| Candidate | Party / backing | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| David Smoljak | KDUZelSTANPiTOP | 20 232 | 48.92 % |
| Dagmar Pecková | ODS | 9 539 | 23.06 % |
| Radek Žalud | ANO | 6 080 | 14.70 % |
| Bedřich Laube | Svo+SPD+Tri+PRO | 3 346 | 8.09 % |
| Darina Batyiová | Kruh | 2 156 | 5.21 % |
Probability of winning the runoff. Scored separately from the freeze; the freeze (9 Oct) is scored on the final winner.
| Candidate | AI | Statistical model | AI + model | Betting | AI + betting | STEM (CNN Prima) | Seznam Zprávy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Smoljak | 95 % | 97 % | 96 % | 98 % | 98 % | 99 % | 97 % |
| Dagmar Pecková | 5 % | 3 % | 4 % | 2 % | 2 % | 1 % | 3 % |
AI: v2 · AI + model: v2 · Odds contamination risk: none
| Candidate | AI | Statistical model | AI + model | Betting | AI + betting |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Smoljak | 58 % | 88 % | 79 % | 79 % | 79 % |
| Dagmar Pecková | 37 % | 3 % | 18 % | 18 % | 18 % |
| Radek Žalud | 4 % | 3 % | 2 % | 2 % | 2 % |
| Bedřich Laube | 0.5 % | 3 % | 0.8 % | 0.9 % | 0.9 % |
| Others | 0.5 % | 3 % | 0.5 % | 0.6 % | 0.6 % |
| Candidate | Party / backing | P(win) | Band |
|---|---|---|---|
| David Smoljak | KDUZelSTANPiTOP (navrhl/a STAN) | 58 % | 45–70 % |
| Dagmar Pecková | ODS | 37 % | 25–50 % |
| Radek Žalud | ANO | 4 % | 2–10 % |
| Bedřich Laube | Svo+SPD+Tri+PRO (navrhl/a Svobodní) | 0.5 % | 0–2 % |
| Others | 0.5 % | 0–2 % |
Other candidates on the ballot: Darina Batyiová (Kruh). Candidates and lists per the official ČSÚ register (volby.gov.cz).
| Candidate | Party / backing | AI agent (blind) | Statistical model | Round-1 share (model, 80% interval) | P(advance / win round 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Smoljak | KDUZelSTANPiTOP | 58 % | 88 % | 49 % (41–56) | 100 % |
| Dagmar Pecková | ODS | 37 % | 3 % | 16 % (10–23) | 28 % |
| Darina Batyiová | Kruh | in “others” | 3 % | 9 % (2–15) | 4 % |
| Bedřich Laube | Svo+SPD+Tri+PRO | 0.5 % | 3 % | 11 % (4–17) | 6 % |
| Radek Žalud | ANO | 4 % | 3 % | 15 % (9–22) | 22 % |
AI agent (blind) — Others: 0.5 %. The model cannot see candidates with neither party nor municipal base (new movements, personal brand) — it underrates them. Model →
Most likely runoff: Smoljak vs. Pecková. ODS is locally strong in Praha 9, and round 1 coincides with municipal elections.
Pecková first → she is the favourite (~60 %); Žalud second → Smoljak ~90 %.
possibleadjustment · post-hoc independent red-teampass