open seat (Němcová not running) As of 2026-10-09 · Stage: blind (no odds) · v1
counted 100 % · Source: ČSÚ (volbyhned.cz)
| Candidate | Party / backing | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jiří Padevět | ODSSTANPirátTOP | 17 576 | 49.64 % |
| Jan Čižinský | KDU+Zel+PHASOBĚ | 9 824 | 27.74 % |
| Ján Dudra | ANO | 4 329 | 12.22 % |
| Jan Čižinský | Levice | 1 028 | 2.90 % |
| Jiří Pavel Pešek | Švýcarská dem. | 929 | 2.62 % |
| Jiří Morštadt | Generace | 597 | 1.68 % |
| Vojtěch Ryvola | GEN | 490 | 1.38 % |
| Jan Štern | TEAM | 347 | 0.98 % |
| Vladimír Kolman | SOCDEM | 286 | 0.80 % |
Probability of winning the runoff. Scored separately from the freeze; the freeze (9 Oct) is scored on the final winner.
| Candidate | AI | Statistical model | AI + model | Betting | AI + betting | STEM (CNN Prima) | Seznam Zprávy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jiří Padevět | 93 % | 95 % | 94 % | — | — | 99 % | 98 % |
| Jan Čižinský | 7 % | 5 % | 6 % | — | — | 1 % | 2 % |
AI: v2 · AI + model: v2 · Odds contamination risk: none
| Candidate | AI | Statistical model | AI + model | Betting | AI + betting |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Čižinský | 54 % | 14 % | 27 % | 42 % | 38 % |
| Jiří Padevět | 43 % | 70 % | 70 % | 46 % | 55 % |
| Ján Dudra | 2 % | 2 % | 2 % | 6 % | 4 % |
| Others | 1 % | 14 % | 1 % | 5 % | 3 % |
| Candidate | Party / backing | P(win) | Band |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Čižinský | KDU+Zel+PHASOBĚ (navrhl/a PRAHA SOBĚ) | 54 % | 37–71 % |
| Jiří Padevět | ODSSTANPirátTOP (navrhl/a STAN) | 43 % | 27–59 % |
| Ján Dudra | ANO | 2 % | 1–5 % |
| Others | 1 % | 0–3 % |
Other candidates on the ballot: Jiří Morštadt (Generace), Pavel Čižinský (Levice), Jan Štern (TEAM), Vojtěch Ryvola (GEN), Jiří Pavel Pešek (Švýcarská dem.), Vladimír Kolman (SOCDEM). Candidates and lists per the official ČSÚ register (volby.gov.cz).
| Candidate | Party / backing | AI agent (blind) | Statistical model | Round-1 share (model, 80% interval) | P(advance / win round 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jiří Padevět | ODSSTANPirátTOP | 43 % | 70 % | 42 % (34–50) | 100 % |
| Jan Čižinský | KDU+Zel+PHASOBĚ | 54 % | 14 % | 23 % (17–29) | 86 % |
| Jiří Morštadt | Generace | in “others” | 2 % | 5 % (0–10) | 0.4 % |
| Pavel Čižinský | Levice | in “others” | 2 % | 5 % (0–10) | 0.3 % |
| Jan Štern | TEAM | in “others” | 2 % | 4 % (0–10) | 0.3 % |
| Vojtěch Ryvola | GEN | in “others” | 2 % | 4 % (0–10) | 0.4 % |
| Ján Dudra | ANO | 2 % | 2 % | 8 % (1–14) | 2 % |
| Jiří Pavel Pešek | Švýcarská dem. | in “others” | 2 % | 5 % (0–10) | 0.4 % |
| Vladimír Kolman | SOCDEM | in “others” | 2 % | 4 % (0–10) | 0.4 % |
AI agent (blind) — Others: 1 %. The model cannot see candidates with neither party nor municipal base (new movements, personal brand) — it underrates them. Model →
Two strong candidates; Čižinský has a strong base in Praha 7. The lead flipped after the red-team (from 48–49).
Whoever leads round 1 gets ~70 %. Praha 7 vs. Praha 1 margins.
websearch_budget_exhausted # red-team stage only (WebFetch used); last-two-weeks campaign news not searchablepossibleadjustmentpass # v2; v1 was warn (3 low-materiality unlabeled assumptions, since labelled)