incumbent running As of 2026-10-09 · Stage: blind (no odds) · v2
counted 100 % · Source: ČSÚ (volbyhned.cz)
| Candidate | Party / backing | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adéla Sucharda Šípová | ZelSTAPirTOPSEN | 14 766 | 30.80 % |
| Petr Paták | ODS | 14 112 | 29.44 % |
| Aleš Gerloch | ANO | 10 622 | 22.16 % |
| Jan Klas | NČ | 3 886 | 8.10 % |
| Marcela Machalová | SPD | 2 945 | 6.14 % |
| Jaroslav Pelc | PŘÍSAHA | 1 602 | 3.34 % |
Probability of winning the runoff. Scored separately from the freeze; the freeze (9 Oct) is scored on the final winner.
| Candidate | AI | Statistical model | AI + model | Betting | AI + betting | STEM (CNN Prima) | Seznam Zprávy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adéla Sucharda Šípová | 53 % | 54 % | 52 % | 42 % | 45 % | 13 % | 42 % |
| Petr Paták | 47 % | 46 % | 48 % | 58 % | 55 % | 87 % | 57 % |
AI: v3 · AI + model: v2 · Odds contamination risk: low
| Candidate | AI | Statistical model | AI + model | Betting | AI + betting |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adéla Sucharda Šípová | 51 % | 82 % | 80 % | 27 % | 46 % |
| Aleš Gerloch | 25 % | 3 % | 8 % | 13 % | 12 % |
| Petr Paták | 23 % | 7 % | 9 % | 46 % | 32 % |
| Others | 1 % | 8 % | 4 % | 14 % | 10 % |
| Candidate | Party / backing | P(win) | Band |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adéla Sucharda Šípová | ZelSTAPirTOPSEN (navrhl/a Piráti) | 51 % | 39–64 % |
| Aleš Gerloch | ANO | 25 % | 15–36 % |
| Petr Paták | ODS | 23 % | 13–34 % |
| Others | 1 % | 0–3 % |
Other candidates on the ballot: Jan Klas (NČ), Jaroslav Pelc (PŘÍSAHA), Marcela Machalová (SPD). Candidates and lists per the official ČSÚ register (volby.gov.cz).
| Candidate | Party / backing | AI agent (blind) | Statistical model | Round-1 share (model, 80% interval) | P(advance / win round 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adéla Sucharda Šípová | ZelSTAPirTOPSEN | 51 % | 82 % | 40 % (32–49) | 100 % |
| Petr Paták | ODS | 23 % | 7 % | 14 % (7–22) | 19 % |
| Jan Klas | NČ | in “others” | 3 % | 8 % (0–16) | 4 % |
| Jaroslav Pelc | PŘÍSAHA | in “others” | 3 % | 7 % (0–14) | 2 % |
| Marcela Machalová | SPD | in “others” | 3 % | 10 % (2–17) | 7 % |
| Aleš Gerloch | ANO | 25 % | 3 % | 20 % (13–28) | 59 % |
AI agent (blind) — Others: 1 %. The model cannot see candidates with neither party nor municipal base (new movements, personal brand) — it underrates them. Model →
Three-way race. Šípová is a slight favourite; the key is whether her runoff opponent is ANO (better for her) or ODS.
Who takes the second runoff slot (Gerloch vs. Paták).
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