incumbent running as an independent As of 2026-10-09 · Stage: blind (no odds) · v1
counted 100 % · Source: ČSÚ (volbyhned.cz)
| Candidate | Party / backing | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jitka Volfová | ANO | 15 078 | 35.05 % |
| Martin Půta | SLK | 14 052 | 32.66 % |
| Jiří Vosecký | NK | 6 429 | 14.94 % |
| Vít Vomáčka | ODS | 5 753 | 13.37 % |
| Leoš Hamrský | KSČM | 1 701 | 3.95 % |
Probability of winning the runoff. Scored separately from the freeze; the freeze (9 Oct) is scored on the final winner.
| Candidate | AI | Statistical model | AI + model | Betting | AI + betting | STEM (CNN Prima) | Seznam Zprávy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Půta | 72 % | 72 % | 74 % | 92 % | 88 % | 98 % | 92 % |
| Jitka Volfová | 28 % | 28 % | 26 % | 8 % | 12 % | 2 % | 8 % |
AI: v2 · AI + model: v2 · Odds contamination risk: low
| Candidate | AI | Statistical model | AI + model | Betting | AI + betting |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Půta | 58 % | 35 % | 39 % | 58 % | 53 % |
| Jitka Volfová | 25 % | 23 % | 28 % | 28 % | 28 % |
| Jiří Vosecký | 15 % | 25 % | 23 % | 8 % | 12 % |
| Vít Vomáčka | 1 % | 12 % | 8 % | 5 % | 6 % |
| Others | 0.5 % | 5 % | 0.8 % | 0.6 % | 0.7 % |
| Candidate | Party / backing | P(win) | Band |
|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Půta | SLK | 58 % | 45–72 % |
| Jitka Volfová | ANO | 25 % | 15–36 % |
| Jiří Vosecký | NK | 15 % | 6–22 % |
| Vít Vomáčka | ODS | 1 % | 0–4 % |
| Others | 0.5 % | 0–2 % |
Other candidates on the ballot: Leoš Hamrský (KSČM). Candidates and lists per the official ČSÚ register (volby.gov.cz).
| Candidate | Party / backing | AI agent (blind) | Statistical model | Round-1 share (model, 80% interval) | P(advance / win round 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Půta | SLK | 58 % | 35 % | 24 % (17–32) | 63 % |
| Jiří Vosecký | NK | 15 % | 25 % | 21 % (14–28) | 38 % |
| Jitka Volfová | ANO | 25 % | 23 % | 29 % (21–36) | 85 % |
| Vít Vomáčka | ODS | 1 % | 12 % | 15 % (8–23) | 11 % |
| Leoš Hamrský | KSČM | in “others” | 5 % | 10 % (2–18) | 3 % |
AI agent (blind) — Others: 0.5 %. The model cannot see candidates with neither party nor municipal base (new movements, personal brand) — it underrates them. Model →
Volfová (ANO) will almost surely advance but is weaker in a runoff. Risks for Půta: a non-final conviction (under appeal) and Vosecký taking a runoff slot.
Půta first → 80+ %; Vosecký ahead of Půta → ~50 %.
Session WebSearch budget exhausted during red-team (200/200) → red-team used WebFetch only (cs/en.wikipedia, Českolipský deník, nášLiberec homepages); idnes not fetchable, iROZHLAS 403; official volby.gov.cz roster with ages not retrieved. No district poll exists; no news from the last ~7 days found; no endorsements or Půta appeal ruling found.possiblerebuildpass