open seat (Kárník not running) As of 2026-10-09 · Stage: blind (no odds) · v1
counted 100 % · Source: ČSÚ (volbyhned.cz)
| Candidate | Party / backing | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Kašpar | STAN | 23 018 | 45.26 % |
| Andrea Brzobohatá | ANO | 12 988 | 25.54 % |
| Roman Schulz | ODS+TOP 09 | 8 773 | 17.25 % |
| Antonín Dušek | SPD | 2 135 | 4.19 % |
| Pavel Sehnal | APB | 2 108 | 4.14 % |
| Jiří Rynekr | KSČM | 1 193 | 2.34 % |
| František Třeštik | JaSaN | 632 | 1.24 % |
Probability of winning the runoff. Scored separately from the freeze; the freeze (9 Oct) is scored on the final winner.
| Candidate | AI | Statistical model | AI + model | Betting | AI + betting | STEM (CNN Prima) | Seznam Zprávy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Kašpar | 95 % | 97 % | 96 % | — | — | 99 % | 99 % |
| Andrea Brzobohatá | 5 % | 3 % | 4 % | — | — | 1 % | 0.9 % |
AI: v2 · AI + model: v2 · Odds contamination risk: none
| Candidate | AI | Statistical model | AI + model | Betting | AI + betting |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Kašpar | 75 % | 60 % | 72 % | 72 % | 72 % |
| Andrea Brzobohatá | 10 % | 7 % | 6 % | 11 % | 10 % |
| Roman Schulz | 9 % | 19 % | 15 % | 10 % | 11 % |
| Pavel Sehnal | 5 % | 3 % | 3 % | 4 % | 4 % |
| Others | 1 % | 11 % | 4 % | 3 % | 3 % |
| Candidate | Party / backing | P(win) | Band |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Kašpar | STAN | 75 % | 60–87 % |
| Andrea Brzobohatá | ANO | 10 % | 4–19 % |
| Roman Schulz | ODS+TOP 09 (navrhl/a ODS) | 9 % | 3–18 % |
| Pavel Sehnal | APB | 5 % | 1–11 % |
| Others | 1 % | 0–2 % |
Other candidates on the ballot: František Třeštik (JaSaN), Jiří Rynekr (KSČM), Antonín Dušek (SPD). Candidates and lists per the official ČSÚ register (volby.gov.cz).
| Candidate | Party / backing | AI agent (blind) | Statistical model | Round-1 share (model, 80% interval) | P(advance / win round 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Kašpar | STAN | 75 % | 60 % | 30 % (22–39) | 94 % |
| Roman Schulz | ODS+TOP 09 | 9 % | 19 % | 17 % (8–25) | 32 % |
| Andrea Brzobohatá | ANO | 10 % | 7 % | 20 % (12–29) | 58 % |
| Jiří Rynekr | KSČM | in “others” | 4 % | 8 % (0–15) | 3 % |
| Antonín Dušek | SPD | in “others” | 4 % | 9 % (1–17) | 5 % |
| Pavel Sehnal | APB | 5 % | 3 % | 8 % (0–16) | 4 % |
| František Třeštik | JaSaN | in “others” | 3 % | 8 % (0–15) | 3 % |
AI agent (blind) — Others: 1 %. The model cannot see candidates with neither party nor municipal base (new movements, personal brand) — it underrates them. Model →
The mayor of Kolín is a clear favourite; the main risk is a runoff against Schulz (centre-right vs. centre-right).
Kašpar leads by 10+ pp → 92+ %; runoff against Schulz → ~53 %.
research stage complete with web search; red-team limited to WebFetch (session search budget exhausted) — endorsements (KDU/Piráti/Motoristé/Kárník), 2024 neighbouring runoffs, Nymburk/Praha-východ party split unverifiednoneadjustmentpass