incumbent running As of 2026-10-09 · Stage: blind (no odds) · v1
counted 100 % · Source: ČSÚ (volbyhned.cz)
| Candidate | Party / backing | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Dvořák | ZelSTANPiTOPHDK | 11 498 | 25.13 % |
| Zuzana Ceralová Petrofová | ODS | 10 039 | 21.94 % |
| Jana Hůlková | ANO | 8 421 | 18.40 % |
| Monika Nebeská | NK | 6 860 | 14.99 % |
| Jan Holásek | VPM+HP+MY+RH+NČ | 5 573 | 12.18 % |
| Ivan Picek | SPD | 2 439 | 5.33 % |
| Vladimír Dryml | ČSSD | 922 | 2.01 % |
Probability of winning the runoff. Scored separately from the freeze; the freeze (9 Oct) is scored on the final winner.
| Candidate | AI | Statistical model | AI + model | Betting | AI + betting | STEM (CNN Prima) | Seznam Zprávy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Dvořák | 51 % | 58 % | 51 % | 49 % | 50 % | 29 % | 77 % |
| Zuzana Ceralová Petrofová | 49 % | 42 % | 49 % | 51 % | 50 % | 71 % | 23 % |
AI: v3 · AI + model: v3 · Odds contamination risk: low
| Candidate | AI | Statistical model | AI + model | Betting | AI + betting |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Dvořák | 44 % | 69 % | 68 % | 51 % | 57 % |
| Jan Holásek | 23 % | 14 % | 13 % | 21 % | 18 % |
| Zuzana Ceralová Petrofová | 17 % | 6 % | 11 % | 16 % | 15 % |
| Jana Hůlková | 15 % | 3 % | 6 % | 10 % | 8 % |
| Others | 1 % | 7 % | 2 % | 2 % | 2 % |
| Candidate | Party / backing | P(win) | Band |
|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Dvořák | ZelSTANPiTOPHDK (navrhl/a STAN) | 44 % | 30–56 % |
| Jan Holásek | VPM+HP+MY+RH+NČ (navrhl/a RH) | 23 % | 13–34 % |
| Zuzana Ceralová Petrofová | ODS | 17 % | 8–27 % |
| Jana Hůlková | ANO | 15 % | 8–25 % |
| Others | 1 % | 0–3 % |
Other candidates on the ballot: Monika Nebeská (NK), Vladimír Dryml (ČSSD), Ivan Picek (SPD). Candidates and lists per the official ČSÚ register (volby.gov.cz).
| Candidate | Party / backing | AI agent (blind) | Statistical model | Round-1 share (model, 80% interval) | P(advance / win round 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Dvořák | ZelSTANPiTOPHDK | 44 % | 69 % | 32 % (25–39) | 99 % |
| Jan Holásek | VPM+HP+MY+RH+NČ | 23 % | 14 % | 19 % (13–26) | 51 % |
| Zuzana Ceralová Petrofová | ODS | 17 % | 6 % | 11 % (5–18) | 7 % |
| Jana Hůlková | ANO | 15 % | 3 % | 18 % (12–25) | 41 % |
| Monika Nebeská | NK | in “others” | 2 % | 6 % (0–12) | 0.7 % |
| Vladimír Dryml | ČSSD | in “others” | 2 % | 6 % (0–12) | 0.9 % |
| Ivan Picek | SPD | in “others” | 2 % | 7 % (0–13) | 1 % |
AI agent (blind) — Others: 1 %. The model cannot see candidates with neither party nor municipal base (new movements, personal brand) — it underrates them. Model →
Three centre-right candidates split the vote; Hůlková (ANO) reaches the runoff in ~79 % of scenarios but rarely wins it.
Which centre-right candidate finishes first; Dvořák vs. Holásek is roughly a coin flip.
websearch_budget_exhausted # affected red-team only (WebFetch-only; volby.cz/senat.cz unreachable; last-7-days news not checked)possibleadjustmentpass