incumbent running; only 2 candidates — round 1 decides As of 2026-10-09 · Stage: blind (no odds) · v1
counted 100 % · Source: ČSÚ (volbyhned.cz)
| Candidate | Party / backing | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Grulich | KDUODSSTPTOPLES | 28 492 | 62.19 % |
| Petr Sadovský | ANO | 17 321 | 37.80 % |
| Candidate | AI | Statistical model | AI + model | Betting | AI + betting |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Grulich | 71 % | 97 % | 82 % | 96 % | 93 % |
| Petr Sadovský | 29 % | 3 % | 18 % | 4 % | 7 % |
| Others | 0.1 % | 0 % | 0.1 % | 0 % | 0.0 % |
| Candidate | Party / backing | P(win) | Band |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Grulich | KDUODSSTPTOPLES (navrhl/a TOP 09) | 71 % | 55–86 % |
| Petr Sadovský | ANO | 29 % | 14–45 % |
| Others | 0.1 % | 0–0 % |
Other candidates on the ballot: —. Candidates and lists per the official ČSÚ register (volby.gov.cz).
| Candidate | Party / backing | AI agent (blind) | Statistical model | Round-1 share (model, 80% interval) | P(advance / win round 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Grulich | KDUODSSTPTOPLES | 71 % | 97 % | 62 % (57–67) | 100 % |
| Petr Sadovský | ANO | 29 % | 3 % | 38 % (33–43) | 0.1 % |
AI agent (blind) — Others: 0.1 %. The model cannot see candidates with neither party nor municipal base (new movements, personal brand) — it underrates them. Model →
Only two candidates, so round 1 decides. The model maps the 2025 Chamber result onto two candidates, with the usual Senate swing against the governing party.
The round-1 result on 10 Oct is final.
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