incumbent running; no ANO candidate As of 2026-10-09 · Stage: blind (no odds) · v1
counted 100 % · Source: ČSÚ (volbyhned.cz)
| Candidate | Party / backing | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michal Šmarda | SOM+Volt+HR | 12 254 | 27.60 % |
| Josef Klement | KDU-ČSL | 11 373 | 25.62 % |
| Radek Černý | ODS+Piráti+STO | 11 372 | 25.62 % |
| Radek Koten | SPD | 7 320 | 16.49 % |
| David Moos | SD-SN | 2 067 | 4.65 % |
Probability of winning the runoff. Scored separately from the freeze; the freeze (9 Oct) is scored on the final winner.
| Candidate | AI | Statistical model | AI + model | Betting | AI + betting | STEM (CNN Prima) | Seznam Zprávy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josef Klement | 56 % | 78 % | 66 % | 77 % | 74 % | 55 % | 47 % |
| Michal Šmarda | 44 % | 22 % | 34 % | 23 % | 26 % | 45 % | 53 % |
AI: v2 · AI + model: v2 · Odds contamination risk: none
| Candidate | AI | Statistical model | AI + model | Betting | AI + betting |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josef Klement | 70 % | 58 % | 59 % | 73 % | 69 % |
| Michal Šmarda | 24 % | 5 % | 14 % | 13 % | 13 % |
| Radek Koten | 3 % | 6 % | 8 % | 1 % | 3 % |
| Radek Černý | 3 % | 27 % | 17 % | 13 % | 14 % |
| Others | 0.5 % | 4 % | 1 % | 0.5 % | 0.6 % |
| Candidate | Party / backing | P(win) | Band |
|---|---|---|---|
| Josef Klement | KDU-ČSL | 70 % | 52–81 % |
| Michal Šmarda | SOM+Volt+HR (navrhl/a Volt) | 24 % | 13–37 % |
| Radek Koten | SPD | 3 % | 1–8 % |
| Radek Černý | ODS+Piráti+STO (navrhl/a ODS) | 3 % | 1–7 % |
| Others | 0.5 % | 0–2 % |
Other candidates on the ballot: David Moos (SD-SN). Candidates and lists per the official ČSÚ register (volby.gov.cz).
| Candidate | Party / backing | AI agent (blind) | Statistical model | Round-1 share (model, 80% interval) | P(advance / win round 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josef Klement | KDU-ČSL | 70 % | 58 % | 34 % (25–43) | 94 % |
| Radek Černý | ODS+Piráti+STO | 3 % | 27 % | 23 % (14–32) | 56 % |
| Radek Koten | SPD | 3 % | 6 % | 18 % (10–27) | 29 % |
| Michal Šmarda | SOM+Volt+HR | 24 % | 5 % | 12 % (3–21) | 9 % |
| David Moos | SD-SN | in “others” | 4 % | 12 % (3–21) | 9 % |
AI agent (blind) — Others: 0.5 %. The model cannot see candidates with neither party nor municipal base (new movements, personal brand) — it underrates them. Model →
A rematch of 2020 (Klement beat Šmarda 59.8–40.2). ANO fields no candidate.
If Šmarda leads after round 1, Klement drops to ~45 %.
websearch_budget_exhausted — session WebSearch 200/200 before research; all research via WebFetch (cs.wikipedia, programydovoleb.cz, senat.cz, CNN Prima, Žďárský deník homepage). volby.gov.cz result pages 404; no okres-level 2025 Chamber data (Vysočina kraj figures only, single-source); no polls, debates, endorsements or local campaign news found; STAN backing of Klement single-source.noneadjustmentpass