incumbent running As of 2026-10-09 · Stage: blind (no odds) · v1
counted 100 % · Source: ČSÚ (volbyhned.cz)
| Candidate | Party / backing | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tomáš Třetina | KDUODSSTANPiTOP | 14 328 | 35.55 % |
| Jiří Kyněra | ANO | 8 980 | 22.28 % |
| Jindřich Růžička | NK | 7 528 | 18.67 % |
| Petra Rédová Fajmonová | Stačilo! | 4 749 | 11.78 % |
| Bohumila Beranová | HR | 2 683 | 6.65 % |
| Pavel Černý | PŘÍSAHA | 2 033 | 5.04 % |
Probability of winning the runoff. Scored separately from the freeze; the freeze (9 Oct) is scored on the final winner.
| Candidate | AI | Statistical model | AI + model | Betting | AI + betting | STEM (CNN Prima) | Seznam Zprávy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomáš Třetina | 84 % | 97 % | 91 % | 98 % | 96 % | 99 % | 93 % |
| Jiří Kyněra | 16 % | 3 % | 9 % | 2 % | 4 % | 1 % | 7 % |
AI: v2 · AI + model: v2 · Odds contamination risk: none
| Candidate | AI | Statistical model | AI + model | Betting | AI + betting |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomáš Třetina | 71 % | 84 % | 84 % | 55 % | 68 % |
| Jiří Kyněra | 23 % | 4 % | 10 % | 31 % | 24 % |
| Bohumila Beranová | 4 % | 3 % | 3 % | 0.4 % | 0.8 % |
| Petra Rédová Fajmonová | 0.5 % | 3 % | 0.9 % | 4 % | 3 % |
| Jindřich Růžička | 0.4 % | 3 % | 0.7 % | 4 % | 3 % |
| Pavel Černý | 0.4 % | 3 % | 0.5 % | 4 % | 2 % |
| Others | 0.2 % | 0 % | 0.1 % | 0 % | 0.0 % |
| Candidate | Party / backing | P(win) | Band |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tomáš Třetina | KDUODSSTANPiTOP (navrhl/a TOP 09) | 71 % | 58–83 % |
| Jiří Kyněra | ANO | 23 % | 13–35 % |
| Bohumila Beranová | HR | 4 % | 2–10 % |
| Petra Rédová Fajmonová | Stačilo! | 0.5 % | 0–2 % |
| Jindřich Růžička | NK | 0.4 % | 0–2 % |
| Pavel Černý | PŘÍSAHA | 0.4 % | 0–2 % |
| Others | 0.2 % | 0–1 % |
Other candidates on the ballot: —. Candidates and lists per the official ČSÚ register (volby.gov.cz).
| Candidate | Party / backing | AI agent (blind) | Statistical model | Round-1 share (model, 80% interval) | P(advance / win round 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomáš Třetina | KDUODSSTANPiTOP | 71 % | 84 % | 44 % (37–53) | 100 % |
| Jiří Kyněra | ANO | 23 % | 4 % | 24 % (17–31) | 75 % |
| Jindřich Růžička | NK | 0.4 % | 3 % | 8 % (0–14) | 1 % |
| Petra Rédová Fajmonová | Stačilo! | 0.5 % | 3 % | 8 % (0–14) | 2 % |
| Bohumila Beranová | HR | 4 % | 3 % | 10 % (3–16) | 3 % |
| Pavel Černý | PŘÍSAHA | 0.4 % | 3 % | 6 % (0–13) | 0.9 % |
AI agent (blind) — Others: 0.2 %. The model cannot see candidates with neither party nor municipal base (new movements, personal brand) — it underrates them. Model →
Kyněra is the only option for government voters (no SPD or Motoristé candidate), but the broadly backed incumbent is favoured.
If Kyněra leads, Třetina drops to ~42 %.
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