incumbent running As of 2026-10-09 · Stage: blind (no odds) · v3
counted 100 % · Source: ČSÚ (volbyhned.cz)
| Candidate | Party / backing | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zdeněk Papoušek | KDUODSPirTOPFBr | 19 395 | 42.08 % |
| Karel Zitterbart | STAN | 11 269 | 24.45 % |
| Jaroslav Štěrba | ANO | 9 275 | 20.12 % |
| Jaroslav Turánek | SPD | 2 892 | 6.27 % |
| Veronika Holcnerová | Kruh | 1 896 | 4.11 % |
| Klára Alžběta Samková | Stačilo! | 1 355 | 2.94 % |
Probability of winning the runoff. Scored separately from the freeze; the freeze (9 Oct) is scored on the final winner.
| Candidate | AI | Statistical model | AI + model | Betting | AI + betting | STEM (CNN Prima) | Seznam Zprávy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zdeněk Papoušek | 84 % | 91 % | 86 % | 97 % | 95 % | 99 % | 92 % |
| Karel Zitterbart | 16 % | 9 % | 14 % | 3 % | 5 % | 1 % | 8 % |
AI: v4 · AI + model: v2 · Odds contamination risk: none
| Candidate | AI | Statistical model | AI + model | Betting | AI + betting |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zdeněk Papoušek | 56 % | 79 % | 75 % | 85 % | 83 % |
| Jaroslav Štěrba | 22 % | 3 % | 7 % | 7 % | 7 % |
| Karel Zitterbart | 16 % | 10 % | 14 % | 6 % | 7 % |
| Others | 6 % | 8 % | 4 % | 2 % | 3 % |
| Candidate | Party / backing | P(win) | Band |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zdeněk Papoušek | KDUODSPirTOPFBr (navrhl/a ODS) | 56 % | 47–63 % |
| Jaroslav Štěrba | ANO | 22 % | 14–30 % |
| Karel Zitterbart | STAN | 16 % | 11–24 % |
| Others | 6 % | 3–9 % |
Other candidates on the ballot: Klára Alžběta Samková (Stačilo!), Veronika Holcnerová (Kruh), Jaroslav Turánek (SPD). Candidates and lists per the official ČSÚ register (volby.gov.cz).
| Candidate | Party / backing | AI agent (blind) | Statistical model | Round-1 share (model, 80% interval) | P(advance / win round 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zdeněk Papoušek | KDUODSPirTOPFBr | 56 % | 79 % | 43 % (35–51) | 100 % |
| Karel Zitterbart | STAN | 16 % | 10 % | 20 % (13–27) | 61 % |
| Klára Alžběta Samková | Stačilo! | in “others” | 3 % | 7 % (0–13) | 2 % |
| Veronika Holcnerová | Kruh | in “others” | 3 % | 8 % (0–14) | 2 % |
| Jaroslav Štěrba | ANO | 22 % | 3 % | 15 % (8–21) | 20 % |
| Jaroslav Turánek | SPD | in “others” | 3 % | 8 % (1–15) | 3 % |
AI agent (blind) — Others: 6 %. The model cannot see candidates with neither party nor municipal base (new movements, personal brand) — it underrates them. Model →
Incumbent in an urban district where ANO lost the 2024 runoff 32–68. The second runoff slot is open.
Who finishes second: Štěrba or Zitterbart.
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