open seat (Seitlová retiring) As of 2026-10-09 · Stage: blind (no odds) · v1
counted 100 % · Source: ČSÚ (volbyhned.cz)
| Candidate | Party / backing | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jakub Navařík | KDU+ODS+STA+TOP | 15 561 | 38.54 % |
| Petr Vrána | ANO | 15 192 | 37.62 % |
| Marek Obrtel | ČSNS | 6 073 | 15.04 % |
| Dan Chromec | SPD | 3 548 | 8.78 % |
Probability of winning the runoff. Scored separately from the freeze; the freeze (9 Oct) is scored on the final winner.
| Candidate | AI | Statistical model | AI + model | Betting | AI + betting | STEM (CNN Prima) | Seznam Zprávy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Petr Vrána | 51 % | 21 % | 38 % | 36 % | 37 % | 47 % | 34 % |
| Jakub Navařík | 49 % | 79 % | 62 % | 64 % | 63 % | 53 % | 66 % |
AI: v2 · AI + model: v2 · Odds contamination risk: low
| Candidate | AI | Statistical model | AI + model | Betting | AI + betting |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakub Navařík | 63 % | 73 % | 74 % | 14 % | 29 % |
| Petr Vrána | 36 % | 20 % | 24 % | 82 % | 68 % |
| Dan Chromec | 0.4 % | 4 % | 2 % | 2 % | 2 % |
| Marek Obrtel | 0.2 % | 3 % | 0.8 % | 1 % | 1 % |
| Others | 0.2 % | 0 % | 0.2 % | 0 % | 0.0 % |
| Candidate | Party / backing | P(win) | Band |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jakub Navařík | KDU+ODS+STA+TOP (navrhl/a ODS) | 63 % | 44–77 % |
| Petr Vrána | ANO | 36 % | 21–54 % |
| Dan Chromec | SPD | 0.4 % | 0–2 % |
| Marek Obrtel | ČSNS | 0.2 % | 0–1 % |
| Others | 0.2 % | 0–0 % |
Other candidates on the ballot: —. Candidates and lists per the official ČSÚ register (volby.gov.cz).
| Candidate | Party / backing | AI agent (blind) | Statistical model | Round-1 share (model, 80% interval) | P(advance / win round 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakub Navařík | KDU+ODS+STA+TOP | 63 % | 73 % | 38 % (31–46) | 99 % |
| Petr Vrána | ANO | 36 % | 20 % | 32 % (25–39) | 91 % |
| Dan Chromec | SPD | 0.4 % | 4 % | 16 % (9–23) | 4 % |
| Marek Obrtel | ČSNS | 0.2 % | 3 % | 13 % (6–21) | 2 % |
AI agent (blind) — Others: 0.2 %. The model cannot see candidates with neither party nor municipal base (new movements, personal brand) — it underrates them. Model →
Vrána likely wins round 1, but ANO is 0–2 in runoffs here and wins only ~20 % of runoffs overall.
If Navařík leads → 80–85 %; if Vrána leads by 8+ pp above 43 % → ~45–50 %.
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