incumbent running without party support As of 2026-10-09 · Stage: blind (no odds) · v2
counted 100 % · Source: ČSÚ (volbyhned.cz)
| Candidate | Party / backing | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marek Ošťádal | 24/7 | 13 544 | 32.17 % |
| Martin Škurek | ANO | 12 118 | 28.78 % |
| Michael Kohajda | KDU-ČSL | 11 972 | 28.44 % |
| Pavel Jelínek | SPD | 3 948 | 9.37 % |
| Zdeněk Beil | Levice | 512 | 1.21 % |
Probability of winning the runoff. Scored separately from the freeze; the freeze (9 Oct) is scored on the final winner.
| Candidate | AI | Statistical model | AI + model | Betting | AI + betting | STEM (CNN Prima) | Seznam Zprávy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marek Ošťádal | 83 % | 84 % | 88 % | 98 % | 96 % | 99 % | 97 % |
| Martin Škurek | 17 % | 16 % | 12 % | 2 % | 4 % | 1 % | 3 % |
AI: v4 · AI + model: v3 · Odds contamination risk: low
| Candidate | AI | Statistical model | AI + model | Betting | AI + betting |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marek Ošťádal | 43 % | 33 % | 36 % | 13 % | 19 % |
| Michael Kohajda | 41 % | 19 % | 31 % | 69 % | 59 % |
| Martin Škurek | 15 % | 26 % | 24 % | 15 % | 18 % |
| Pavel Jelínek | 0.5 % | 14 % | 6 % | 3 % | 4 % |
| Others | 0.5 % | 8 % | 2 % | 0.8 % | 1 % |
| Candidate | Party / backing | P(win) | Band |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marek Ošťádal | 24/7 | 43 % | 28–58 % |
| Michael Kohajda | KDU-ČSL | 41 % | 27–55 % |
| Martin Škurek | ANO | 15 % | 7–27 % |
| Pavel Jelínek | SPD | 0.5 % | 0–2 % |
| Others | 0.5 % | 0–2 % |
Other candidates on the ballot: Zdeněk Beil (Levice). Candidates and lists per the official ČSÚ register (volby.gov.cz).
| Candidate | Party / backing | AI agent (blind) | Statistical model | Round-1 share (model, 80% interval) | P(advance / win round 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marek Ošťádal | 24/7 | 43 % | 33 % | 24 % (16–32) | 61 % |
| Martin Škurek | ANO | 15 % | 26 % | 29 % (21–38) | 85 % |
| Michael Kohajda | KDU-ČSL | 41 % | 19 % | 18 % (10–26) | 25 % |
| Pavel Jelínek | SPD | 0.5 % | 14 % | 17 % (9–26) | 22 % |
| Zdeněk Beil | Levice | in “others” | 8 % | 12 % (3–20) | 7 % |
AI agent (blind) — Others: 0.5 %. The model cannot see candidates with neither party nor municipal base (new movements, personal brand) — it underrates them. Model →
Very close: Ošťádal vs. Kohajda for the runoff slot against Škurek, who advances in ~70 % of scenarios but rarely wins a runoff.
Which of Ošťádal/Kohajda advances.
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