incumbent running; no ANO or ODS candidate As of 2026-10-09 · Stage: blind (no odds) · v1
counted 100 % · Source: ČSÚ (volbyhned.cz)
| Candidate | Party / backing | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Helena Pešatová | STAN+Piráti+TOP | 15 085 | 34.75 % |
| Petr Korč | NMFM | 14 095 | 32.47 % |
| Tomáš Krpel | SPD | 5 647 | 13.01 % |
| Zdeněk Navrátil | Evo | 4 140 | 9.53 % |
| Nela Lisková | NEZLOMNÍ | 2 123 | 4.89 % |
| René Hompora | Švýcarská dem. | 1 334 | 3.07 % |
| Petr Hrnčárek | KSČM | 981 | 2.26 % |
Probability of winning the runoff. Scored separately from the freeze; the freeze (9 Oct) is scored on the final winner.
| Candidate | AI | Statistical model | AI + model | Betting | AI + betting | STEM (CNN Prima) | Seznam Zprávy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Helena Pešatová | 52 % | 56 % | 54 % | 57 % | 56 % | 23 % | 59 % |
| Petr Korč | 48 % | 44 % | 46 % | 43 % | 44 % | 77 % | 41 % |
AI: v2 · AI + model: v2 · Odds contamination risk: low
| Candidate | AI | Statistical model | AI + model | Betting | AI + betting |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Helena Pešatová | 75 % | 76 % | 81 % | 45 % | 59 % |
| Petr Korč | 19 % | 8 % | 10 % | 42 % | 30 % |
| Tomáš Krpel | 4 % | 4 % | 4 % | 4 % | 4 % |
| Others | 2 % | 12 % | 5 % | 9 % | 8 % |
| Candidate | Party / backing | P(win) | Band |
|---|---|---|---|
| Helena Pešatová | STAN+Piráti+TOP (navrhl/a STAN) | 75 % | 60–85 % |
| Petr Korč | NMFM | 19 % | 9–32 % |
| Tomáš Krpel | SPD | 4 % | 2–10 % |
| Others | 2 % | 0–5 % |
Other candidates on the ballot: Petr Hrnčárek (KSČM), Nela Lisková (NEZLOMNÍ), René Hompora (Švýcarská dem.), Zdeněk Navrátil (Evo). Candidates and lists per the official ČSÚ register (volby.gov.cz).
| Candidate | Party / backing | AI agent (blind) | Statistical model | Round-1 share (model, 80% interval) | P(advance / win round 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Helena Pešatová | STAN+Piráti+TOP | 75 % | 76 % | 43 % (33–54) | 100 % |
| Petr Korč | NMFM | 19 % | 8 % | 15 % (6–24) | 36 % |
| Petr Hrnčárek | KSČM | in “others” | 4 % | 8 % (0–16) | 8 % |
| Tomáš Krpel | SPD | 4 % | 4 % | 10 % (1–18) | 14 % |
| René Hompora | Švýcarská dem. | in “others” | 3 % | 8 % (0–16) | 8 % |
| Nela Lisková | NEZLOMNÍ | in “others” | 3 % | 8 % (0–16) | 8 % |
| Zdeněk Navrátil | Evo | in “others” | 3 % | 8 % (0–16) | 8 % |
AI agent (blind) — Others: 2 %. The model cannot see candidates with neither party nor municipal base (new movements, personal brand) — it underrates them. Model →
No ANO or ODS candidate; Korč is the main rival and the runoff refuge for ANO voters.
Pešatová lead of 10+ pp → 85–90 %; under 5 pp → 60–65 %.
websearch_budget_exhausted — WebFetch on direct URLs only; no local-news articles retrieved; NMFM 2022 municipal share and district-level 2025 Chamber results not retrieved (404); normalizer/researcher/forecaster/grounding/aggregator run by the district orchestrator itself (subagent budget), red-team spawned as separate subagent.noneadjustmentpass