incumbent running As of 2026-10-09 · Stage: blind (no odds) · v1
counted 100 % · Source: ČSÚ (volbyhned.cz)
| Candidate | Party / backing | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ondřej Šimetka | KDUODSSTANPiTOP | 15 542 | 46.74 % |
| Lucie Baránková Vilamová | ANO | 10 177 | 30.61 % |
| Milan Loprais | SPD+PRO | 4 239 | 12.75 % |
| Petr Jančík | Ostravak | 2 071 | 6.22 % |
| Štefan Režný | ReMeK | 624 | 1.87 % |
| Radoslav Štědroň | Švýcarská dem. | 388 | 1.16 % |
| Radek Iwoniak | ČSSD | 206 | 0.61 % |
Probability of winning the runoff. Scored separately from the freeze; the freeze (9 Oct) is scored on the final winner.
| Candidate | AI | Statistical model | AI + model | Betting | AI + betting | STEM (CNN Prima) | Seznam Zprávy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ondřej Šimetka | 91 % | 97 % | 95 % | 98 % | 98 % | 99 % | 96 % |
| Lucie Baránková Vilamová | 9 % | 3 % | 5 % | 2 % | 2 % | 1 % | 4 % |
AI: v2 · AI + model: v2 · Odds contamination risk: none
| Candidate | AI | Statistical model | AI + model | Betting | AI + betting |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ondřej Šimetka | 71 % | 82 % | 84 % | 46 % | 61 % |
| Lucie Baránková Vilamová | 25 % | 4 % | 11 % | 42 % | 30 % |
| Milan Loprais | 2 % | 3 % | 2 % | 3 % | 2 % |
| Others | 2 % | 11 % | 3 % | 9 % | 7 % |
| Candidate | Party / backing | P(win) | Band |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ondřej Šimetka | KDUODSSTANPiTOP (navrhl/a ODS) | 71 % | 60–84 % |
| Lucie Baránková Vilamová | ANO | 25 % | 14–36 % |
| Milan Loprais | SPD+PRO (navrhl/a PRO) | 2 % | 1–5 % |
| Others | 2 % | 1–5 % |
Other candidates on the ballot: Petr Jančík (Ostravak), Radoslav Štědroň (Švýcarská dem.), Radek Iwoniak (ČSSD), Štefan Režný (ReMeK). Candidates and lists per the official ČSÚ register (volby.gov.cz).
| Candidate | Party / backing | AI agent (blind) | Statistical model | Round-1 share (model, 80% interval) | P(advance / win round 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ondřej Šimetka | KDUODSSTANPiTOP | 71 % | 82 % | 42 % (35–51) | 100 % |
| Lucie Baránková Vilamová | ANO | 25 % | 4 % | 23 % (16–29) | 80 % |
| Milan Loprais | SPD+PRO | 2 % | 3 % | 6 % (0–13) | 1 % |
| Petr Jančík | Ostravak | in “others” | 3 % | 10 % (2–16) | 4 % |
| Radoslav Štědroň | Švýcarská dem. | in “others” | 3 % | 6 % (0–13) | 1 % |
| Radek Iwoniak | ČSSD | in “others” | 3 % | 6 % (0–13) | 1 % |
| Štefan Režný | ReMeK | in “others” | 3 % | 6 % (0–12) | 1 % |
AI agent (blind) — Others: 2 %. The model cannot see candidates with neither party nor municipal base (new movements, personal brand) — it underrates them. Model →
ANO's Ostrava runoff record is better than nationally but weak in governing years. Baránková's base is Poruba.
Baránková leads by 5+ pp → ~62–35; Šimetka leads by 5+ → 85–88 %.
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