open ANO-held seat (Feber not running) As of 2026-10-09 · Stage: blind (no odds) · v1
counted 100 % · Source: ČSÚ (volbyhned.cz)
| Candidate | Party / backing | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lenka Brzyszkowská | ANO | 8 009 | 33.62 % |
| Petr Kazík | OK | 3 411 | 14.31 % |
| Mariam Szyja | ZelSTAPirTOPSEN | 3 361 | 14.10 % |
| Aleš Polách | ODS+Soukromníci | 3 316 | 13.92 % |
| Pavel Staněk | SPD | 2 961 | 12.43 % |
| Roman Galia | SOCDEM | 2 170 | 9.10 % |
| Karel Světnička | JaSaN | 593 | 2.48 % |
Probability of winning the runoff. Scored separately from the freeze; the freeze (9 Oct) is scored on the final winner.
| Candidate | AI | Statistical model | AI + model | Betting | AI + betting | STEM (CNN Prima) | Seznam Zprávy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lenka Brzyszkowská | 72 % | 73 % | 65 % | 82 % | 77 % | 90 % | 72 % |
| Petr Kazík | 28 % | 27 % | 35 % | 18 % | 23 % | 10 % | 28 % |
AI: v2 · AI + model: v2 · Odds contamination risk: none
| Candidate | AI | Statistical model | AI + model | Betting | AI + betting |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lenka Brzyszkowská | 65 % | 40 % | 46 % | 85 % | 78 % |
| Aleš Polách | 15 % | 9 % | 11 % | 2 % | 4 % |
| Mariam Szyja | 13 % | 23 % | 26 % | 3 % | 7 % |
| Petr Kazík | 4 % | 6 % | 3 % | 2 % | 2 % |
| Pavel Staněk | 2 % | 9 % | 11 % | 6 % | 8 % |
| Others | 1 % | 13 % | 3 % | 1 % | 2 % |
| Candidate | Party / backing | P(win) | Band |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lenka Brzyszkowská | ANO | 65 % | 47–77 % |
| Aleš Polách | ODS+Soukromníci (navrhl/a ODS) | 15 % | 8–24 % |
| Mariam Szyja | ZelSTAPirTOPSEN (navrhl/a Piráti) | 13 % | 7–22 % |
| Petr Kazík | OK | 4 % | 2–9 % |
| Pavel Staněk | SPD | 2 % | 0–6 % |
| Others | 1 % | 0–3 % |
Other candidates on the ballot: Karel Světnička (JaSaN), Roman Galia (SOCDEM). Candidates and lists per the official ČSÚ register (volby.gov.cz).
| Candidate | Party / backing | AI agent (blind) | Statistical model | Round-1 share (model, 80% interval) | P(advance / win round 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lenka Brzyszkowská | ANO | 65 % | 40 % | 37 % (27–47) | 99 % |
| Mariam Szyja | ZelSTAPirTOPSEN | 13 % | 23 % | 17 % (8–26) | 43 % |
| Pavel Staněk | SPD | 2 % | 9 % | 13 % (4–22) | 22 % |
| Aleš Polách | ODS+Soukromníci | 15 % | 9 % | 8 % (0–17) | 8 % |
| Roman Galia | SOCDEM | in “others” | 6 % | 8 % (0–16) | 7 % |
| Karel Světnička | JaSaN | in “others” | 6 % | 8 % (0–16) | 7 % |
| Petr Kazík | OK | 4 % | 6 % | 8 % (0–16) | 7 % |
AI agent (blind) — Others: 1 %. The model cannot see candidates with neither party nor municipal base (new movements, personal brand) — it underrates them. Model →
The only district with an ANO favourite: a strong local base and a split opposition. In 2020 the runoff was decided by 84 votes at 7.7 % turnout.
Round-1 margin: 20+ pp → 75+ %; under 10 pp → about a coin flip. A Polách–Szyja deal.
websearch_budget_exhausted — WebFetch only; 2025 Chamber results for Karviná/Orlová not obtainable (volby.cz app JS / 404); no Senate-specific local news found; Kazík political history unknown; no district poll exists.noneadjustmentpass