incumbent running As of 2026-10-09 · Stage: blind (no odds) · v1
counted 100 % · Source: ČSÚ (volbyhned.cz)
| Candidate | Party / backing | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tomáš Goláň | KDU+ODS+TOP 09 | 15 627 | 33.54 % |
| Ivo Mitáček | STAN | 10 638 | 22.83 % |
| Vladimír Sedlařík | ANO | 8 794 | 18.87 % |
| Pavel Dlouhý | SEN 21 | 5 667 | 12.16 % |
| Lubomír Nečas | SPD | 4 987 | 10.70 % |
| Jan Doleček | KSČM | 868 | 1.86 % |
Probability of winning the runoff. Scored separately from the freeze; the freeze (9 Oct) is scored on the final winner.
| Candidate | AI | Statistical model | AI + model | Betting | AI + betting | STEM (CNN Prima) | Seznam Zprávy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomáš Goláň | 73 % | 77 % | 74 % | 87 % | 84 % | 96 % | 66 % |
| Ivo Mitáček | 27 % | 23 % | 26 % | 13 % | 16 % | 4 % | 34 % |
AI: v2 · AI + model: v2 · Odds contamination risk: none
| Candidate | AI | Statistical model | AI + model | Betting | AI + betting |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomáš Goláň | 73 % | 68 % | 77 % | 77 % | 77 % |
| Vladimír Sedlařík | 22 % | 2 % | 10 % | 12 % | 11 % |
| Ivo Mitáček | 3 % | 22 % | 11 % | 8 % | 9 % |
| Others | 2 % | 7 % | 2 % | 4 % | 3 % |
| Candidate | Party / backing | P(win) | Band |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tomáš Goláň | KDU+ODS+TOP 09 (navrhl/a ODS) | 73 % | 56–83 % |
| Vladimír Sedlařík | ANO | 22 % | 12–36 % |
| Ivo Mitáček | STAN | 3 % | 1–8 % |
| Others | 2 % | 0–5 % |
Other candidates on the ballot: Lubomír Nečas (SPD), Jan Doleček (KSČM), Pavel Dlouhý (SEN 21). Candidates and lists per the official ČSÚ register (volby.gov.cz).
| Candidate | Party / backing | AI agent (blind) | Statistical model | Round-1 share (model, 80% interval) | P(advance / win round 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomáš Goláň | KDU+ODS+TOP 09 | 73 % | 68 % | 34 % (27–42) | 99 % |
| Ivo Mitáček | STAN | 3 % | 22 % | 21 % (14–28) | 57 % |
| Lubomír Nečas | SPD | in “others” | 2 % | 10 % (2–17) | 3 % |
| Jan Doleček | KSČM | in “others” | 2 % | 8 % (0–15) | 2 % |
| Vladimír Sedlařík | ANO | 22 % | 2 % | 19 % (12–26) | 37 % |
| Pavel Dlouhý | SEN 21 | in “others” | 2 % | 8 % (0–15) | 2 % |
AI agent (blind) — Others: 2 %. The model cannot see candidates with neither party nor municipal base (new movements, personal brand) — it underrates them. Model →
Incumbent vs. a strong ANO candidate; Mayor Korec (ANO) heads the municipal list on the same day.
Sedlařík ahead of Goláň → Goláň ~58 %.
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