incumbent running As of 2026-10-09 · Stage: blind (no odds) · v1
counted 100 % · Source: ČSÚ (volbyhned.cz)
| Candidate | Party / backing | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Josef Bazala | KDU-ČSL | 20 975 | 47.81 % |
| Jiří Vašica | ANO | 12 434 | 28.34 % |
| Kristýna Zelienková | ZVUK 12 | 4 124 | 9.40 % |
| Otakar Březina | SD-SN | 3 126 | 7.12 % |
| David Skyba | SPD | 1 793 | 4.08 % |
| Margita Balaštíková | HOČ | 1 414 | 3.22 % |
Probability of winning the runoff. Scored separately from the freeze; the freeze (9 Oct) is scored on the final winner.
| Candidate | AI | Statistical model | AI + model | Betting | AI + betting | STEM (CNN Prima) | Seznam Zprávy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josef Bazala | 94 % | 97 % | 96 % | 99 % | 98 % | 99 % | 97 % |
| Jiří Vašica | 6 % | 3 % | 4 % | 1 % | 2 % | 1 % | 3 % |
AI: v2 · AI + model: v2 · Odds contamination risk: none
| Candidate | AI | Statistical model | AI + model | Betting | AI + betting |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josef Bazala | 83 % | 51 % | 71 % | 95 % | 91 % |
| Jiří Vašica | 13 % | 19 % | 18 % | 3 % | 5 % |
| Margita Balaštíková | 3 % | 6 % | 3 % | 1 % | 2 % |
| Others | 1 % | 24 % | 8 % | 0.9 % | 2 % |
| Candidate | Party / backing | P(win) | Band |
|---|---|---|---|
| Josef Bazala | KDU-ČSL | 83 % | 70–91 % |
| Jiří Vašica | ANO | 13 % | 6–22 % |
| Margita Balaštíková | HOČ | 3 % | 1–8 % |
| Others | 1 % | 0–3 % |
Other candidates on the ballot: Otakar Březina (SD-SN), Kristýna Zelienková (ZVUK 12), David Skyba (SPD). Candidates and lists per the official ČSÚ register (volby.gov.cz).
| Candidate | Party / backing | AI agent (blind) | Statistical model | Round-1 share (model, 80% interval) | P(advance / win round 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josef Bazala | KDU-ČSL | 83 % | 51 % | 30 % (21–39) | 91 % |
| Jiří Vašica | ANO | 13 % | 19 % | 26 % (17–34) | 78 % |
| Otakar Březina | SD-SN | in “others” | 11 % | 13 % (4–22) | 11 % |
| Kristýna Zelienková | ZVUK 12 | in “others” | 7 % | 10 % (1–19) | 6 % |
| David Skyba | SPD | in “others” | 6 % | 12 % (3–20) | 8 % |
| Margita Balaštíková | HOČ | 3 % | 6 % | 10 % (0–18) | 5 % |
AI agent (blind) — Others: 1 %. The model cannot see candidates with neither party nor municipal base (new movements, personal brand) — it underrates them. Model →
Incumbent in a KDU-ČSL stronghold vs. an ANO newcomer; former ANO MP Balaštíková runs for another party.
If Vašica is within 5 pp of Bazala, the runoff tightens to ~65–70 %.
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