incumbent running As of 2026-10-09 · Stage: blind (no odds) · v1
counted 100 % · Source: ČSÚ (volbyhned.cz)
| Candidate | Party / backing | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zbyněk Linhart | STAN+SLK | 17 850 | 52.22 % |
| Michal Hejcman | ANO | 6 882 | 20.13 % |
| Anna Lehká | MÍSTNÍ HNHRM | 3 574 | 10.45 % |
| Jan Skalický | PRO | 3 539 | 10.35 % |
| Miroslav Štross | Zelen+Pirát+SEN | 2 337 | 6.83 % |
| Candidate | AI | Statistical model | AI + model | Betting | AI + betting |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zbyněk Linhart | 84 % | 80 % | 82 % | 88 % | 87 % |
| Michal Hejcman | 14 % | 8 % | 9 % | 7 % | 8 % |
| Anna Lehká | 1 % | 7 % | 6 % | 3 % | 3 % |
| Jan Skalický | 0.3 % | 3 % | 1 % | 0.9 % | 1.0 % |
| Others | 0.1 % | 3 % | 1 % | 2 % | 2 % |
| Candidate | Party / backing | P(win) | Band |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zbyněk Linhart | STAN+SLK (navrhl/a STAN) | 84 % | 70–91 % |
| Michal Hejcman | ANO | 14 % | 7–27 % |
| Anna Lehká | MÍSTNÍ HNHRM | 1 % | 0–4 % |
| Jan Skalický | PRO | 0.3 % | 0–2 % |
| Others | 0.1 % | 0–1 % |
Other candidates on the ballot: Miroslav Štross (Zelen+Pirát+SEN). Candidates and lists per the official ČSÚ register (volby.gov.cz).
| Candidate | Party / backing | AI agent (blind) | Statistical model | Round-1 share (model, 80% interval) | P(advance / win round 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zbyněk Linhart | STAN+SLK | 84 % | 80 % | 38 % (31–46) | 99 % |
| Michal Hejcman | ANO | 14 % | 8 % | 26 % (19–34) | 81 % |
| Anna Lehká | MÍSTNÍ HNHRM | 1 % | 7 % | 17 % (10–24) | 13 % |
| Jan Skalický | PRO | 0.3 % | 3 % | 10 % (2–17) | 2 % |
| Miroslav Štross | Zelen+Pirát+SEN | in “others” | 3 % | 9 % (1–16) | 1 % |
AI agent (blind) — Others: 0.1 %. The model cannot see candidates with neither party nor municipal base (new movements, personal brand) — it underrates them. Model →
The incumbent won outright in round 1 in 2020 (52.8 %). ANO is strong locally, but Linhart would likely win a runoff.
If Hejcman leads round 1, Linhart drops to ~45 %.
Session WebSearch budget exhausted during red-team (200/200) → red-team used WebFetch only (cs.wikipedia, programydovoleb.cz); iROZHLAS 403, Děčínský deník paywalled/404, volby.gov.cz and senat.cz 404. No district polls, 2026 campaign news or endorsements could be searched. Skalický SPD/Motoristé backing unresolved (iROZHLAS snippet yes vs cs.wikipedia PRO-only).possibleadjustmentpass