incumbent running As of 2026-10-09 · Stage: blind (no odds) · v1
counted 100 % · Source: ČSÚ (volbyhned.cz)
| Candidate | Party / backing | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Sobotka | STAN | 23 174 | 58.42 % |
| Zuzana Chovancová | ANO | 11 350 | 28.61 % |
| Radek Mráz | SPD | 2 903 | 7.31 % |
| Hynek Beran | PRO | 2 235 | 5.63 % |
| Candidate | AI | Statistical model | AI + model | Betting | AI + betting |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Sobotka | 85 % | 84 % | 88 % | 97 % | 95 % |
| Zuzana Chovancová | 14 % | 9 % | 11 % | 2 % | 4 % |
| Radek Mráz | 0.5 % | 3 % | 1 % | 0.3 % | 0.5 % |
| Others | 0.5 % | 4 % | 0.6 % | 0.2 % | 0.3 % |
| Candidate | Party / backing | P(win) | Band |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Sobotka | STAN | 85 % | 72–92 % |
| Zuzana Chovancová | ANO | 14 % | 7–26 % |
| Radek Mráz | SPD | 0.5 % | 0–2 % |
| Others | 0.5 % | 0–2 % |
Other candidates on the ballot: Hynek Beran (PRO). Candidates and lists per the official ČSÚ register (volby.gov.cz).
| Candidate | Party / backing | AI agent (blind) | Statistical model | Round-1 share (model, 80% interval) | P(advance / win round 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Sobotka | STAN | 85 % | 84 % | 43 % (35–51) | 100 % |
| Zuzana Chovancová | ANO | 14 % | 9 % | 27 % (20–34) | 72 % |
| Hynek Beran | PRO | in “others” | 4 % | 14 % (6–21) | 6 % |
| Radek Mráz | SPD | 0.5 % | 3 % | 16 % (8–23) | 9 % |
AI agent (blind) — Others: 0.5 %. The model cannot see candidates with neither party nor municipal base (new movements, personal brand) — it underrates them. Model →
Strong incumbent (2020: 41.7 % in round 1, 74.6 % in the runoff). About a 31 % chance of an outright round-1 win.
If Chovancová leads, Sobotka drops to ~45–50 %.
possibleadjustment · post-hoc independent red-teampass